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Thursday, August 12, 2021

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 375,000

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2021 08:34:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 375,000, a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 385,000 to 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 396,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 394,000 to 394,500.
emphasis added
This does not include the 104,572 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 94,427 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 394,000.

The previous week was revised up.

Regular state continued claims decreased to 2,866,000 (SA) from 2,980,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 4,820,787 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 5,156,982 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 3,852,569 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 4,246,207.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.