by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2010 12:15:00 PM

The Fed's previous view was bubbles were hard to identify and the Fed's role was to clean up after a collapse. Now that view is changing ...

From NY Fed President William Dudley: Asset Bubbles and the Implications for Central Bank Policy

... Today I want to tackle a difficult subject: How should central bankers deal with potential asset price bubbles. ...

As I see it, we need to reexamine how central banks should respond to potential asset bubbles. After all, recent experience has underscored the fact that poorly regulated financial systems are prone to such bubbles and that the costs of waiting to respond to an asset bubble until after it has burst can be very high.

Today, I will try to define some of the important characteristics of asset price bubbles. I will argue that bubbles do exist and that bubbles typically occur after an innovation that has created uncertainty about fundamental valuations. This has two important implications. First, a bubble is difficult to discern and, second, each bubble has unique characteristics. This implies that a rules-based approach to bubbles is likely to be ineffective and that tackling bubbles to diminish their potential to destabilize the financial system requires judgment.

Despite the fact that it is hard to discern bubbles, especially in their early stages, I conclude that uncertainty is not grounds for inaction.

Dudley discusses the stock market and housing bubbles and the various tool available to the Fed to lean again the bubbles, and then concludes:

In my view, a proactive approach is appropriate when three conditions are satisfied: First, circumstances should suggest that there is a meaningful risk of a future asset price crash that could threaten financial stability. Second, we have identified tools that might have a reasonable chance of success in averting such an outcome. Third, we are reasonably confident that the costs of using the tools are likely to be outweighed by the benefits from averting the prospective crash. When these three conditions are satisfied, we should be willing to act.

by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2010 08:52:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 11.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. ...

The Refinance Index decreased 16.9 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. ...

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 58.7 percent of total applications from 63.2 percent the previous week, marking the lowest share observed in the survey since the week ending August 28, 2009. ...

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.31 percent from 5.04 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 1.07 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the highest 30-year rate recorded in the survey since the first week of August 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Although purchase activity was flat week-to-week, the four week average is moving up due to buyers trying to beat the expiration of the tax credit. I expect any increase in activity this year to be less than the increase last year when buyers rushed to beat the expiration of the initial tax credit.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 11:59:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

From the WSJ: Shopping-Center Malaise

Vacancies at shopping centers in the top 77 U.S. markets increased to 10.8% in the first quarter ... according to Reis.

It is the highest vacancy rate since 1991, when vacancies reached 11%.

This is up from 10.6% in Q4 2009 and 9.5% in Q1 2009.

Vacancy rates at malls in the top 77 U.S. markets rose to 8.9% in the January-to-March period ...

The 8.9% is the highest since Reis began tracking regional malls in 2000. Lease rates fell for the seventh consecutive quarter.

"The stress might be lessening and rent declines might be moderating," said Reis director of research Victor Calanog. "But we don't see positive rent growth resuming until the middle of next year at the earliest, just because of the typical lag."

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 07:31:00 PM

I want to highlight the housing comments in the FOMC minutes for the March 16, 2010 meeting:

Participants were also concerned that activity in the housing sector appeared to be leveling off in most regions despite various forms of government support, and they noted that commercial and industrial real estate markets continued to weaken. Indeed, housing sales and starts had flattened out at depressed levels, suggesting that previous improvements in those indicators may have largely reflected transitory effects from the first-time homebuyer tax credit rather than a fundamental strengthening of housing activity. Participants indicated that the pace of foreclosures was likely to remain quite high; indeed, recent data on the incidence of seriously delinquent mortgages pointed to the possibility that the foreclosure rate could move higher over coming quarters. Moreover, the prospect of further additions to the already very large inventory of vacant homes posed downside risks to home prices.

And from the staff:

The staff did make modest downward adjustments to its projections for real GDP growth in response to unfavorable news on housing activity, unexpectedly weak spending by state and local governments, and a substantial reduction in the estimated level of household income in the second half of 2009. The staff's forecast for the unemployment rate at the end of 2011 was about the same as in its previous projection.

This fits with my comments in response to Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota's speech today: It isn't the size of the sector, but the contribution during the recovery that matters - and housing is usually the largest contributor to economic growth early in a recovery. And as the FOMC notes, there isn't much contribution from residential investment right now (in fact the contribution from RI will probably be negative in Q1 2010).

And on employment, residential investment probably contibuted significantly to employment growth following previous recessions - especially for residential construction employment - although the BLS didn't break out residential construction for the earlier periods.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 03:38:00 PM

From Diana Olick at CNBC: Foreclosures Are Rising

Yes, banks are ramping up loan modifications and ramping up short sales and ramping up deeds in lieu of foreclosure, but the plain fact is that as the systems are oiled, the loans are moving through faster, and the pig in the python is showing its face.

We won't get the [foreclosure] numbers until next week, but sources tell me they will likely be a new monthly record.

The foreclosures are coming! The foreclosures are coming!

I don't think there is any question that foreclosures will pick up. And now is a good time to get properties on the market. As an example, Freddie Mac just announced an auction of homes: Freddie Mac, New Vista to Auction Hundreds of Homes on April 24 in Las Vegas, April 25 in California's Inland Empire Before Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit Expires

Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE) and New Vista today announced plans to auction hundreds of HomeSteps® REO homes to individual homebuyers in Las Vegas on April 24, 2010 and in California’s Inland Empire on April 25, 2010 in support of the federal Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP) and to help more first time homebuyers and owner occupants purchase these homes. HomeSteps is the real estate sales unit of Freddie Mac and markets a nationwide selection of Freddie Mac-owned homes.
...
By scheduling these two auctions on April 24 and 25, bidders may still be able to qualify for the federal home purchase tax credit, which is set to expire on April 30, 2010. The tax credit offers eligible first time homebuyers up to $8,000 on qualifying homes.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 01:04:00 PM

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota spoke today: Economic Recovery and Balance Sheet Normalization

The headline is Kocherlakota thinks the Fed should start selling a non-trivial amount of MBS each month to normalize the Fed's balance sheet.

[T]he passive approach is a slow approach that will leave the Federal Reserve holding significant amounts of MBSs for many years to come. If the Federal Reserve wants to normalize its balance sheet in the next five, 10, or even 20 years, it needs to supplement the passive approach with an active one. In plain English, it will have to sell mortgage-backed securities.
...
To pick one of many possible plans, suppose we were to commit to the public to sell 15 billion to 25 billion dollars worth per month of MBSs. This path of sales, combined with prepayments, would get the Federal Reserve out of MBSs within five years after the start of selling. The plan would also return the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to a normal size, so that excess reserves would be normalized at their 2007 levels well before the end of the five-year period. Just as important, I feel confident that this pace of sales would be sufficiently slow that it would have little or no impact on MBS prices and long-term interest rates.

He also made some interesting comments on housing:

Let me start my outlook with the most troubling information first. Housing starts and sales remain at near historically low levels. These data are disturbing to many observers. And that’s understandable. After many past recessions, residential investment has played a significant role in the subsequent recovery. Arguing by analogy, some are concerned that we cannot have a sustainable economic recovery unless housing starts pick up dramatically from their current low levels.

CR: I think a sustainable recovery is possible, but I think it will be sluggish and choppy. I've argued it is difficult to have a robust (V-Shaped) recovery without housing.

I have to say that I’m somewhat skeptical of this thinking. Yes, the housing sector is important, but residential investment makes up just 2.8 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

CR: This is an error in analysis. Back in 2005, several analysts argued I was wrong that a housing bust would eventually take the economy into recession - they said residential investment was only 6% of the U.S. economy! They were wrong because they didn't consider all the add on effects - and the impact of financial distress. Now residential investment is only 2.5 percent of GDP, and Kocherlakota is making the inverse faulty argument. During previous recoveries, housing played a critical role in job creation and consumer spending. It isn't the size of the sector, but the contribution during the recovery that matters - and housing is usually the largest contributor to economic growth early in a recovery.

The U.S. economy is a wonderfully diverse one, and has many possible sources of growth. We can—and I believe that we will—have significant growth in output without seeing a major turnaround in the housing market.
...
Housing starts are ... strongly affected by the general health of the economy (job growth or loss) and the stock of housing relative to demand. As I see it, the problems in the housing sector right now are largely driven by this second factor. For a number of reasons, the nation has built a lot more houses than it now needs or wants. As a result, my own prediction is that housing starts are going to remain low—possibly for several years.

What does the large supply of housing mean for the general economy? It means that resources formerly dedicated to building and outfitting homes are gradually shifting to other uses. This points out another remarkable feature of the U.S. economy: its flexibility.

I generally agree with this last section. The problem with "flexibility" is there are two key labor mismatches (as discussed last week by Atlanta Fed President Lockhart); The first is lower geographical mobility because of the inability to sell a home. Usually people can move freely in the U.S. to pursue employment, but many people are tied to an anchor (an underwater mortgage).

The second is a skills mismatch. This is because so many people went into the construction industry because it was the highest paying job. These workers may be highly skilled in their trade, but their skills are probably not transferable to the new jobs being created. It will take some time for these people to learn a new trade.

Both of these mismatches lower the "flexibility" of the economy.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 2.7 million job openings on the last business day of February 2010, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was little changed over the month at 2.1 percent. The hires rate (3.1 percent) and the separations rate (3.1 percent) were also little changed in February.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The CES (Current Employment Statistics, payroll survey) is for positions, the CPS (Current Population Survey, commonly called the household survey) is for people.

The following graph shows job openings (purple), hires (blue), Total separations (include layoffs, discharges and quits) (red) and Layoff, Discharges and other (yellow) from the JOLTS.

Unfortunately this is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Notice that hires (blue) and separations (red) are pretty close each month. This is the level of turnover each month. When the blue line is above total separations, the economy is adding net jobs, when the blue line is below total separations, the economy is losing net jobs.

According to the JOLTS report, there were 4.96 3.961 million hires in February (SA), and 3.957 million total separations, or 4 thousand net jobs gained. The comparable CES report showed a loss of 14 thousand jobs in February (after revision).

Layoffs and discharges have declined sharply from early 2009 - and that is a good sign.

However, hiring has not picked up - and even though total separations were at a series low, there were few jobs added in February (according to JOLTS). This low turnover rate is another indicator of a weak labor market.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 09:01:00 AM

Just an update ...

Market News International reported that Greece may want to cut the International Monetary Fund out of the rescue package. However an unnamed Greece official denied the report, from the WSJ Greece to Pitch Dollar Bond to U.S. Investors

"Don't expect at this point any major push by Athens to get the IMF out of the picture," the official said. "There is unhappiness with the support package because it's vague. And, yes, the involvement of the IMF is something that we could do without," the official said. "But it was us who first raised the IMF card and I don't think the Greek government will or can renegotiate the package. It will show inconsistency."

This official said Greece would like more clarity on any aid package involving the IMF, but the government doesn't plan to demand the agreement be renegotiated to exclude the IMF.

Update: Jason sent me an update from the Street on Greek bonds: "Wider by 50 on the day in the 10 years and 120 in 2 year, it is clear panic has now set in ..."

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2010 12:07:00 AM

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Apartment Rents Rise as Sector Stabilizes

Nationally, the apartment vacancy rate stayed flat at 8%, the highest level since Reis Inc., a New York research firm, began its tally in 1980.... Nationally, effective rents, which include concessions such as one month of free rent, rose 0.3% during the quarter compared with a 0.7% decline in the fourth quarter of last year and a 1.1% drop in the first quarter of 2009. ...

"Rent reductions are not over yet," said Hessam Nadji, managing director at real-estate firm Marcus & Millichap.

Note: the Reis numbers are for cities. The overall vacancy rate from the Census Bureau was at a near record 10.7% in Q4 2009.

Rents plunged in 2009 by the most in the 30 years Reis has been tracking rents - and with vacancies at record levels, the slight increase in Q1 2010 rents doesn't mean the rent declines are over.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2010 08:00:00 PM

Some people have argued that measured is inflation is declining mostly because of the Owners' Equivalent Rent component that is being pushed down by the record high rental vacancy rate. Economists at the San Francisco and New York Fed argue that there is "a broad pattern of subdued price increases across most consumption goods and services and [housing] is not distorting the broad downward trend in core inflation measures."

From Bart Hobijn, Stefano Eusepi, and Andrea Tambalotti: The Housing Drag on Core Inflation

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

One way to consider the effect of the price of housing on core inflation is to calculate a core PCEPI that excludes housing. This is done in Figure 1, which contains three time series. The first is 12-month growth in the core PCEPI. The second is a comparable measure of inflation for the housing component of the core PCEPI. The final time series is a core PCEPI that excludes housing expenditures.

Three things stand out in this figure. First, the standard core inflation measure shows substantial disinflationary pressures at work. ...

Second, part of the drop in measured core inflation is undoubtedly due to the deceleration in the price of housing. ...

Third, it turns out that this drag is rather small. The decrease in housing inflation only accounts for a small part of the overall disinflationary pressure on core PCEPI. ...

Consequently, the evidence in Figure 1 offers little cause for concern that the recent behavior of core inflation might be a misleading signal of the underlying inflation trend.
emphasis added

Note: The measures of housing inflation try to separate the cost of living in a home from changes in the asset price.

The Fed has a dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment. This disinflationary trend (ex-housing) is important because some people at the Fed are more concerned about possible future inflation, whereas others are more concerned with the high level of unemployment.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2010 05:47:00 PM

From Diana Olick at CNBC: Let the Short Sales Begin

I'm ... starting to hear rumblings among the number crunchers that the wave of foreclosures we keep hearing about is about to hit with a thunderous roar.

Servicers are ramping up the mod process and pushing those who don't qualify out the door more quickly than ever.

I don't know about a "thunderous roar", but I do think we will see more distressed sales soon. Most trustee sales seem to be "postponed" each month, and perhaps the lenders were just waiting for the HAFA short sales program to begin. That program started today and anyone considering a short sale should ask their lender if they qualify.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2010 03:15:00 PM

The Ten Year treasury yield hit 4.0% this morning for the first time since Oct 2008. Mortgage rates are moving up too and that probably means that refinance activity will decline sharply.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Refinance activity picks up when mortgage rates fall (for obvious reasons), and this graph shows the monthly refinance activity (MBA refinance index) and the 30 year fixed mortgage rate and one year adjustable mortgage rate (both from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey) - and the Fed Funds target rate since Jan 1990.

Notice that following the '90/'91 and '01 recessions, the Fed kept lowering the Fed Funds rate because of high unemployment rates. This spurred refinance activity. The Fed can't lower the Fed Funds rate now - and could only spur refinance activity if they restarted the MBS purchase program.

The second graph shows the weekly MBA refinance activity, and the Ten Year Treasury yield.

When the ten year yield drops sharply, usually refinance activity picks up. And when the yield increases, refinance activity declines.

With the yield on the Ten Year Treasury increasing to 4%, and the end of the Fed MBS purchase program last week, mortgage rates will probably rise and refinance activity will fall sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2010 12:26:00 PM

The Financial Times reports that if (when) Greece needs to call on the emergency loan package from the IMF-Eurozone, Germany officials argue Greece should pay 6.0% to 6.5% on the Eurozone loans - the same as they are currently paying on 10 year bonds. Others are arguing for borrowing rates in the 4 to 4.5% range - similar to rates paid by Ireland and Portugal.

See the Financial Times: German stand on loan rates to Greece

Eurozone leaders agreed at the end of March to offer Greece an emergency loan package from the International Monetary Fund and the eurozone if it was unable to raise debt in the market, but they insisted the interest rate on the European portion of a bail would be unsubsidised.

I guess it depends on the definition of "unsubsidised".

Apparently the Asian central banks are not interested in Greek Bond issues, from the WSJ: Greek Bond May Get Cool Asian Response

"We wouldn't want to be involved" in the bond issue, one fund manager in Hong Kong said. "The fiscal situation in Greece remains very fragile, so we want to wait for a more concrete plan on how to resolve their debt problem."

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2010 10:00:00 AM

March ISM Non-Manufacturing index 55.4% vs 53.0 in February

This shows further growth in the service sector, although employment contracted for the 27th consecutive month.

From the Institute for Supply Management: March 2010 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in March for the third consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president – supply management for Hilton Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 55.4 percent in March, 2.4 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 53 percent registered in February, and indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 5.2 percentage points to 60 percent, reflecting growth for the fourth consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 7.3 percentage points to 62.3 percent, and the Employment Index increased 1.2 percentage points to 49.8 percent.
...
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in March for the 27th consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for March registered 49.8 percent. This reflects an increase of 1.2 percentage points when compared to the seasonally adjusted 48.6 percent registered in February.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 11:59:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting 1991.

Reis is reporting the vacancy rate rose to 17.2% in Q1 2010, up from 17.0% in Q4, and up from 15.2% in Q1 2009. The peak following the previous recession was 16.9%.

From the Financial Times: Signs that worst is over for commercial property

New figures from Reis ... showed that the vacancy rate in the US office sector climbed to 17.2 per cent during the first three months of the year..
...
"We expect less of a bloodbath in fundamentals in 2010 versus 2009, but rents will still decline and vacancies will still continue to rise," said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. ... During the first quarter, asking rents and effective rents, which include special offers and concessions, both fell by just 0.8 per cent.
excerpts with permission

Even though vacancy rates will probably rise further and rents continue to decline, it does appear the rate of deterioration has slowed.

Reis should release the Mall and Apartment vacancy rates over the next few days, and those will probably be at record levels.

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 08:50:00 PM

By request ...

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - but this time aligned at the bottom of the recession (ht Tom). This assumes that the 2007 recession has reached bottom.

The current recession has been bouncing along the bottom for a few months - so the choice of bottom is a little arbitrary (plus or minus a month or two).

Notice that the 1990 and 2001 recessions were followed by jobless recoveries - and the eventual job recovery was gradual. In earlier recessions the recovery was somewhat similar and a little faster than the decline (somewhat symmetrical).

If the current recovery was similar to the earlier recessions, the economy would recovery the 8+ million lost payroll jobs over the next 2 years. I think that is very unlikely ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 06:42:00 PM

In Socal ...

6.9 in Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico. We felt it pretty good in Orange County.

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 12:25:00 PM

The economic news will be a little lighter in the up coming week, although there will be a number of Fed speeches.

Early in the week, I expect REIS to release the Q1 vacancy data for offices, malls and apartments. This is key data for commercial real estate, and the vacancy rates have been steadily rising and setting new records.

Later in the week, we will probably get the March National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) small business survey and the rail traffic report for March from the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

On Monday, the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index for March will be released at 10 AM ET, and February pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors (also at 10 AM). The consensus is for an increase in the ISM index to 54.0 from 53.0 in February, and a slight decline in pending home sales.

On Tuesday the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released at 10 AM by the BLS. This report has been showing very little hiring and turnover in the labor market. Also on Tuesday the FOMC minutes for the March meeting will be released at 2 PM. Minnesota Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks at 1 PM.

On Wednesday consumer credit will be released by the Federal Reserve at 2 PM. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is speaking at a luncheon, and also on Wednesday Kansas City Fed President (and inflation hawk) Tom Hoenig speaks at 2PM.

On Thursday the closely watched initial weekly unemployment claims will be released. The consensus is for some slight improvement from the 439K last week. Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks on the U.S. economic outlook at 4 PM, and Chairman Bernanke speaks on economic policy at 8:30 PM.

And on Friday, Wholesale inventories for February will be released at 10 AM. Also on Friday the FDIC will probably close several more banks. Puerto Rico is still on the clock ...

And a (long) summary of last week:

March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the unemployment rate and the year over year change in employment vs. recessions.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 in March. The economy has lost 2.3 million jobs over the last year, and 8.2 million jobs since the beginning of the current employment recession.

The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7 percent.

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

For the current recession, employment peaked in December 2007, and this recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

Census 2010 hiring was 48,000 (NSA) in March. So payrolls increased 114,000 ex-Census.

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

The Employment-Population ratio ticked up slightly to 58.6% in March, after plunging since the start of the recession. This is about the same level as in 1983.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 64.9% (the percentage of the working age population in the labor force). This is at the level of the early 80s. Many of these people will return to the labor force when the employment picture improves - and that will keep the unemployment rate elevated unless net hiring picks up dramatically.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) increased sharply to 9.1 million.

The all time record of 9.2 million was set in October. This suggests the increase last month was not weather related - and is not a good sign.

The next graph shows long term unemployment.

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.55 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.3% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)

Although the headline number of 162,000 payroll jobs was a positive (this is 114,000 after adjusting for Census 2010 hires), the underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rate was steady, the employment-population ratio ticked up slightly (after plunging sharply), the diffusion index showed more industries hiring, and average hours increased (might have been impacted by the snow in February).

But a near record number of part time workers (for economic reasons), a record number of unemployed for more than 26 weeks, and a decline in average hourly wages are all negatives.

Construction Spending Declines in February

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential construction spending is now 62.9% below the peak of early 2006.

Private non-residential construction spending is 29.0% below the peak of late 2008.

Residential spending will probably exceed non-residential spending later this year - mostly because of continued declines in non-residential spending as major projects are completed.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales increase to 11.8 Million SAAR in March

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for March (red, light vehicle sales of 11.78 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is a 13.9% increase from the February sales rate.

Excluding August '09 (Cash-for-clunkers), this is the highest level since September 2008. The current level of sales are very low, and are at about the low point for the '90/'91 recession (even with a larger population now).

Fannie Mae: Delinquencies Increase in January

Fannie Mae reported that the rate of serious delinquencies - at least 90 days behind - for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 5.52% in January, up from 5.38% in December - and up from 2.77% in January 2009.

"Includes seriously delinquent conventional single-family loans as a percent of the total number of conventional single-family loans."

Case-Shiller Home Prices Increase slighly in January

IMPORTANT: These graphs are Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

This graph shows the nominal not seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 30.2% from the peak, and down about 0.2% in January NSA (up 0.4% SA, but the data wasn't available when the charts were created).

The Composite 20 index is off 29.6% from the peak, and down about 0.4% in January (NSA) (up 0.3% SA)

Prices decreased (NSA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in January NSA.

On a SA basis from the NY Times: U.S. Home Prices Prices Inch Up, but Troubles Remain

Twelve of the cities in the index went up in January from December. Los Angeles was the biggest gainer, up 1.7 percent. Chicago was the biggest loser, dropping 0.8 percent.

Philly Fed state coincident indicators were mixed for February

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Twenty five states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 18 states, and was unchanged in 7.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for February.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 21 states, decreased in 22, and remained unchanged in seven for a one-month diffusion index of -2. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 18 states, decreased in 25, and remained unchanged in seven for a three-month diffusion index of -14.

Other Economic Stories ...

From Alana Semuels at the LA Times: From bucolic bliss to 'gated ghetto'

From David Baker at the San Francisco Chronicle: State gas usage falls for 4th straight year

February Personal Income Flat, Spending Increases Note: PCE in Q1 2010 is on track for about 3.0% annualized growth, the fastest pace since Q1 2007.

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.5 Percent in February

From National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Declines Slightly in January, But Optimism for Future Business Conditions Strengthens

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: March Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Reach Highest Monthly Total Since 2005 Bankruptcy Overhaul

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart on Employment

From ISM: Manufacturing sector expanded in March

Unofficial Problem Bank List at 683

Best wishes to all.

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2010 09:02:00 AM

From Alyssa Katz at the WaPo: How Texas escaped the real estate crisis

Only a dozen states have lower mortgage foreclosure and default rates [than Texas], and all of them are rural places such as Montana and South Dakota, where they couldn't have a real estate boom if they tried.

Texas's 3.1 million mortgage borrowers are a breed of their own among big states with big cities. Fewer than 6 percent of them are in or near foreclosure, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; the national average is nearly 10 percent.
...
[T]here is a ... secret to Texas's success ... Across the nation, cash-outs became ubiquitous during the mortgage boom, as skyrocketing house prices made it possible for homeowners, even those with bad credit, to use their home equity like an ATM. But not in Texas. There, cash-outs and home-equity loans cannot total more than 80 percent of a home's appraised value. There's a 12-day cooling-off period after an application, during which the borrower can pull out. And when a borrower refinances a mortgage, it's illegal to get even a dollar back. Texas really means it: All these protections, and more, are in the state constitution. The Texas restrictions on mortgage borrowing date from the first days of statehood in 1845, when the constitution banned home loans.

"Delinquency and foreclosure rates are significantly lower in Texas," says Scott Norman of the Texas Mortgage Bankers Association. "The 80 percent loan-to-value limit -- that's the catalyst for a lot of this."

Here is a graph based on the Q4 2009 MBA delinquency survey:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Sure enough the seriously delinquent rate in Texas is only higher than 12 other states. However the total delinquency rate is right in the middle.

The limits on home equity borrowing might have helped because fewer homeowners could get into situations with negative equity.

This graph is based on the First American CoreLogic Q4 negative equity report.

This graph shows the negative equity and near negative equity by state.

Once again Texas is in the bottom half, but the negative equity rate doesn't seem extremely low.

I think there are other factors too. Texas is part of Krugman's Flatland, and most areas with abundant land saw smaller price increases during the bubble. And there is a direct correlation between price increase and eventual price decrease - and therefore negative equity (all those people who bought near the top) - and the delinquency rate. I think Texas saw a minimal price increase because it is easy to build there.

Although I think limits on home equity borrowing make sense, and might have helped at the margin, I'm not convinced it is a "secret" to the lower rate in Texas.

Note: Nevada and Arizona have building limitations, and they also saw significant investor buying from Californians - many using their home equity to buy investment property.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2010 11:14:00 PM

We rarely discuss India ...

From Praveen Singh at the Indian Express: Sprawling Malls, empty spaces

According to reports, the average vacancy across malls in major cities rose to over 30 per cent last year. ...

Jones Lang LaSalle Meghraj (JLLM), a global property consultant, says that out of 17.3 million sq ft supply of retail space across the country in 2010, only 9.3 million sq ft is expected to be absorbed. ...

[T]here has been a continuous fall in retail rentals. A Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) survey revealed that certain pockets of Delhi, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Mumbai, Pune and Bangalore are witnessing severe decline in rentals. The NCR, which received the highest quantum of mall space last year, saw a rental correction of approximately 30 to 60 per cent in locations such as Noida and Gurgaon. Likewise, high streets like Linking Road and Kemps Corner in Mumbai, Cathedral Road and R K Salai in Chennai, and Ganesh Khind Road in Pune witnessed a 13 to 20 per cent drop in rentals.

It appears there was a commercial real estate bubble in India too.