by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2009 12:46:00 PM

In Delaware from The News Journal: Justison Landing developer to auction condos

In a risky strategy to move condominiums, the developers of the much-ballyhooed Justison Landing complex on Wilmington's Riverfront plan to auction off a third of the units in the waterfront community next month.
...
Robert Buccini, a partner in Buccini/Pollin Group Inc. in Wilmington, said the auction of 38 condominiums and two town houses in a 120-condo building on the Christina River is designed to stimulate sales ... So far, about 25 condos have been sold in the building -- about two sales a month since the building was completed a year ago.

"We're basically selling at discount so we can move on to our next project," Buccini said.

From the Jacksonville Business Journal: Summer House condos to be auctioned

Twenty-three condominiums in the Summer House in Old Ponte Vedra will go up for auction.

From KUOW News in Seattle: Condo Glut

This weekend, 40 units are up for auction and the minimum bids are typically less than half the listed price. ... there is a veritable glut of brand new condominiums on the market. A few years ago, it seemed, every parking lot in downtown Seattle was being turned into condos. Many of those projects are coming on line now, during the worst real estate market in decades.

At Brix, which completed construction late last year, two thirds of the building's units are still unsold.

And a twist in New Jersey, from the NY Times: In Jersey City, Jump-Starting Condo Sales

At the Saffron, a nearly complete 76-unit condominium complex in the thick of this city’s downtown, the Fields Development Group is trying something new ... The first units — a minimum of 9, a maximum of 15 — will be auctioned off before the grand opening and the start of conventional marketing.
...
Ending sales with an auction — after fair-market values for a building have already been well established — is a tried-and true-technique, of course. But the auctioneers for the Saffron, at Sheldon Good & Company, say they have never conducted a “jump-start” auction before.

"Stimulate"? "Jump-start"? Why not just call it "dump" or "liquidate"?

But this is a reminder that new high rise condos are not included in the new home inventory report from the Census Bureau, and are also not included in the existing home sales report from the NAR (unless they are listed). These uncounted units are concentrated in Miami, Las Vegas, San Diego and other large cities - but as these articles show, there are new condos almost everywhere.

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2009 09:21:00 AM

From the WaPo: As Subprime Lending Crisis Unfolded, Watchdog Fed Didn't Bother Barking

... Under a policy quietly formalized in 1998, the Fed refused to police lenders' compliance with federal laws protecting borrowers, despite repeated urging by consumer advocates across the country and even by other government agencies.

The hands-off policy, which the Fed reversed earlier this month, created a double standard. Banks and their subprime affiliates made loans under the same laws, but only the banks faced regular federal scrutiny. Under the policy, the Fed did not even investigate consumer complaints against the affiliates.

"In the prime market, where we need supervision less, we have lots of it. In the subprime market, where we badly need supervision, a majority of loans are made with very little supervision," former Fed Governor Edward M. Gramlich, a critic of the hands-off policy, wrote in 2007. "It is like a city with a murder law, but no cops on the beat."

... since its creation, the Fed has held a second job as a banking regulator, one of four federal agencies responsible for keeping banks healthy and protecting their customers. ... During the boom, however, the Fed left those powers largely unused. ... The Fed's performance was undercut by ... the doubts of senior officials about the value of regulation ...

The failure of oversight was a serious and unfortunately common problem during the boom. For more examples see: Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002 and Federal Reserve Oversight and the Failure of Riverside Bank of the Gulf Coast.

The WaPo title reminds us of the conversation between Colonel Ross and Sherlock Holmes in Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's "Silver Blaze":

"Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
"To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
"The dog did nothing in the night-time."
"That was the curious incident," remarked Sherlock Holmes.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2009 09:25:00 PM

The American University School and MSNBC have created a tool for tracking the "troubled asset ratio" for banks. This tool allows you to search for individual banks.

Here is the description:

[The] “troubled asset ratio” ... compares the sum of troubled assets with the sum of Tier 1 Capital plus Loan Loss Reserves. Generally speaking, higher values in this ratio indicate that a bank is under more stress caused by loans that are not paying as scheduled.

Wendell Cochran, senior editor of the Investigative Reporting Workshop, and a former business reporter for the Kansas City Star, the Des Moines Register and Gannett News Service, was likely the first journalist to create this measure of bank health. He did that while covering banking for the Des Moines Register in the early 1980s. Later, at Gannett News Service, he was involved in projects published at USA TODAY and elsewhere that calculated this ratio for every bank and savings and loan in the nation.

Others do similar calculations. The most widely used is the so-called Texas Ratio, created during the 1980s by a banking consultant. You can find various formulas for calculating this ratio, but they generally are in line with the method used by the Investigative Reporting Workshop. There is no attempt here to value the non-loan assets that may also be causing bank problems, such as mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, etc.

According to BankTracker, the national median troubled-asset ratio is 13 (a percentage of Tier 1 Capital plus Loan Loss Reserves). The most recent bank failure, Georgian Bank in Altanta Georgia had a ratio of 198.3.

I looked up a few banks from the Unofficial Problem Bank List with Prompt Corrective Actions:

Name	City	State	PCA	Troubled Asset Ratio
Peoples First Community Bank	Panama City	FL	6/11/2009	362.8
Warren Bank	Warren	MI	8/3/2009	351.1
Home Federal Savings Bank	Detroit	MI	3/5/2009	193.2
Bank of Elmwood	Racine	WI	7/23/2009	182.5
American United Bank	Lawrenceville	GA	8/13/2009	155.3
Heritage Bank	Topeka	KS	3/31/2009	149.1
Bank 1st	Albuquerque	NM	8/31/2009	146.1

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2009 04:06:00 PM

From the WaPo: Barney Frank Talks Back A couple of excerpts:

Klein: What's the most important part of financial regulation?

Frank: Limiting securitization. I believe the single biggest issue here is that people invented ways to lend money without worrying if they got paid back or not by securitizing the loan. When I was younger, the theory was if you had a high risk tolerance, you went into stocks. If you were safe and stodgy, you bought debt. But debt became the volatile aspect here.
...
Klein: One theory of the crisis is that the problem wasn't traders and their high tolerance for risk. It was people fooling themselves into thinking this stuff was safe by slapping a triple-A rating on everything.

Frank: I agree; the theory has always been that people bought debt because it was safer. The basic problem was that 30 years ago when people lent other people money, they expected to be paid back by the people they lent money to. So they were very careful. Two years ago, most loans were being made by people who were going to sell those loans to other people and didn't expect to be paid back.

This is an interesting answer. About two years ago, I was asked to sum up the causes of the crisis in a few words, and I responded "Securitization and the lack of regulatory oversight". I then explained how rapid innovation in lending resulted in a disconnect between the borrower and the eventual debt holder.

The mortgage lenders and Wall Street firms were disconnected from the performance of the actual loan (the "Originate-to-sell" model). At the same time, the rating agencies were evaluating the debt based on the historical performance of the old style lender-borrower relationship. The eventual debt holders relied on the rating agencies, without realizing the entire model had changed.

Meanwhile the regulators were not following this advice:

“Instruct regulators to look for the newest fad in the industry and examine it with great care. The next mistake will be a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid.”
William Seidman, "Full Faith and Credit", 1993.

There is nothing inherently wrong with securitization or financial innovation. But the regulators should always be on the lookout for "a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid".

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2009 01:28:00 PM

A quote from Bloomberg: Strauss-Kahn Says Crisis Consequences Will Last Long Time

“We will still have rising unemployment at least for a year,” [International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique] Strauss-Kahn said via videolink in an address to the Yalta European Strategy Conference from Washington. “From this point of view, the crisis isn’t over. It is too early to claim victory, even that we have avoided the worst situation. The consequences will be there for a long time.”

Strauss-Kahn makes several key points:

Unemployment will continue to rise for some time.

The consequences of the crisis will "be there for a long time".

It is too early for a victory lap.

Earlier this week, Strauss-Kahn expressed concern about the social consquences of the crisis (via Reuters):

"In many areas of the world, what is at stake is not only higher unemployment or lower purchasing power, but life and death itself," Strauss-Kahn said.

"We don't just care about growth for growth's sake, we also want to safeguard peace and prevent war," he said, adding: "Indeed, when low-income countries were doing well over the past decade or so, the incidence of war declined significantly. The great fear is that this trend could be reversed."

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2009 08:33:00 AM

From Peter Hong at the LA Times: Don't bank on your home as an ATM (ht Ann). A few excerpts:

For generations of Americans, a home was seen not simply as a dwelling, but as an engine of personal wealth. That view was promoted by the home-building and real estate sales industries as well as the U.S. government, which subsidized home loans and provided tax deductions for mortgage interest.
...
Now, however, the worst housing crash since the Great Depression may mean that a home purchase ought to be considered with the same warning issued to investors in securities: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
...
Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors, said that the state's median home price used to rise and fall roughly in line with the national median. ... "It didn't really get out of whack until about four or five years ago," she said. "It was tied into financing."

With lax mortgage standards a thing of the past, at least for now, Appleton-Young said, home price increases will be more moderate in the future, which should lead people to "a much more realistic assessment of why they're buying a home. They'll do so more for the consumption value; it's a place to raise your family, not your nest egg."
...
"In the period post-World War II, you bought a home, gave your family a great place to live relative to the alternatives, and if all went well, in 20 years you didn't have a mortgage," said [Thomas Lawler, influential housing consultant and a former Fannie Mae official]. "That's what people ought to go back to."

It makes sense for people to buy houses as a place to live, not as an investment.

Perhaps Leslie Appleton-Young has lost track of time, but four years ago was 2005 - the peak of the housing insanity. She probably meant four or five years before 2006 (when prices peaked) as to when house prices in California started to detach from fundamentals.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2009 01:47:00 AM

From the NY Times: Group of 20 Agrees on Far-Reaching Economic Plan

The leaders pledged to rethink their economic policies in a coordinated effort to reduce the immense imbalances between export-dominated countries like China and Japan and debt-laden countries like the United States, which has long been the world’s most willing consumer.

The United States will be expected to increase its savings rate, reduce its trade deficit and address its huge budget deficit. Countries like China, Japan and Germany will be expected to reduce their dependence on exports by promoting more consumer spending and investment at home.

... for the first time ever, each country agreed to submit its policies to a “peer review” from the other governments as well as to monitoring by the International Monetary Fund.

Imagine an export led recovery in the U.S. (as opposed to the typical recovery with consumer spending and housing leading the way). I'll believe it when I see it.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 07:36:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Another week with significant changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List as the FDIC released its enforcement actions for August. We will not get another release from the FDIC until the end of October.

The Unofficial Problem Bank List grew by 23 institutions to 459 and aggregate assets total $297.2 billion, up from $294 billion last week. During the week, we added 25 institutions to the list while we removed 2 because of failure. The failures were Irwin Union Bank and Trust Company ($2.8 billion) and Irwin Union Bank, F.S.B. ($518 million).

The largest asset additions include First Mariner Bank ($1.3 billion), Baltimore, MD; Anchor Mutual Savings Bank ($657 million), Aberdeen, WA; and NexBank ($560 million), Dallas, TX.

For the other 23 additions, the average asset size is $178 million. The additions are concentrated in handful of states including Minnesota (5), California (4), Washington (4), and Georgia (3), which all continue to see banks with large CRE or C&D lending concentrations come under enforcement action.

The list includes 2 new Prompt Corrective Action orders the FDIC issued against American United Bank ($112 million), Lawrenceville, GA; and Bank 1st ($109 million), Albuquerque, NM. It is long overdue for the agencies to start issuing more PCA orders.

One other interesting item this week is that the FDIC issued a Cease & Desist order on August 31st against Georgian Bank ($2.2 billion), Atlanta, GA, which was closed today. We typically remove failures from the subsequent week’s list but, in this case, we did not add Georgian Bank otherwise aggregate assets would have been $299.4 billion.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)





Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 04:36:00 PM

Atlanta Georgia
Just five simple syllables
Foreclosure central
by Rob Dawg (SGIP out today)
From the FDIC: First Citizens Bank and Trust Company, Incorporated, Columbia, South Carolina, Assumes All of the Deposits of Georgian Bank, Atlanta, Georgia

Georgian Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of July 24, 2009, Georgian Bank had total assets of $2 billion and total deposits of approximately $2 billion. In addition to assuming all of the deposits of the failed bank, First Citizens Bank agreed to purchase essentially all of the assets.

The FDIC and First Citizens Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $2 billion of Georgian Bank's assets. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $892 million. ... Georgian Bank is the 95th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the nineteenth in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was First Coweta, Newnan, on August 21, 2009.

Friday starts early ...

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 04:00:00 PM

Michelle at Footnoted.org digs up the employment contract for Freddie Mac's new CFO: Taxpayer funded signing bonus at Freddie Mac?

• annual compensation of $3.5 million (this includes $675K in salary, $1.6 million in something called “additional annual salary” and $1.1 million in a target incentive
• a $1.95 million signing bonus
• immediate buyout of Kari’s house

Why is Freddie paying more than the private sector? And I bet Geithner is jealous about the house deal!

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

And the Bandos are moving on up in Miami! From nbcphiladelphia.com: After Miami's Ritzy Bubble Bursts, Squatters Move on Up

Miami's squatter problem has garnered national media attention over the past year and a half, as the foreclosure crisis threatened to transform the Magic City into something resembling a lawless, "Mad Max"-esque landscape.

The squatters mostly kept a low profile, moving in ... to neighborhoods where they could take over unnoticed.

But now come reports that squatters are seeking out more ritzy neighborhoods, including the pricey, tree-lined streets of Coral Gables.
...
A check of county records found that the home went into foreclosure over a year ago, just about the time residents said the alleged squatters showed up.

The bank which owns the property hired a realtor to sell it last month ...

Maybe the lenders should sell the foreclosed homes?

And from the LA Times: Calls to renew home buyer tax credit get louder in Washington. Yeah, an expensive, poorly targeted tax credit for those not suffering during the recession. This isn't as dumb as allowing the FHA DAP to continue (Downpayment Assistance Program - the poster child for bad housing policy), but close. Why not a "first-time renters" tax credit for anyone who hasn't rented for 3 years? That makes as much economic sense.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 02:23:00 PM

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 2.1 Percent in August

Click on graph for slightly larger image in new window.

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 2.1 percent in August, matching July’s increase of the same magnitude. The latest gain raised the SA index to 104.1 (2000=100), which was the best reading since February 2009. ... Compared with August 2008, SA tonnage fell 7.5 percent, which was the best year-over-year showing since November 2008. ...

“The gains in tonnage during July and August reflect a growing economy and less of an overhang in inventories,” [ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello] noted. “While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, most economic indicators, including industrial output and household spending, suggest freight tonnage will exhibit moderate, and probably inconsistent, growth in the months ahead."

The Rail Freight Traffic shows some recent pickup too, but the level is still way below 2008 and 2007. (ht Bob_in_MA) Note: Trucking accounts for about 70% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, and about 83% of total revenue.

It appears the economy has reset to a new lower level, and growth will probably be sluggish. Trucking is probably benefiting from inventory restocking, and exports - the key positive areas for the economy.

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 12:16:00 PM

For graphs based on the new home sales report this morning, please see: New Home Sales Flat in August

The following graph is a turnover ratio for existing home sales. This is annual sales and year end inventory divided by the total number of owner occupied units. For 2009, sales were estimated at 4.8 million units, and inventory at the August level.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Although the turnover ratio has fallen from the bubble years, the level is still above the median for the last 40 years. This suggests 2009 is about a normal year for existing home turnover.

That might seem shocking based on all the reports of weak existing home sales. But the problem isn't the number of sales (except as compared to the bubble years), but the type and price of sales.

The reason turnover hasn't fallen further is because of all the distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) primarily in the low priced areas. Distressed sales declined in August, and this is a major reason existing home sales declined.

There is another wave of foreclosures coming, so existing home sales might stay elevated for some time. Plus, the "first-time" homebuyers tax credit might be extended (a poorly targeted an inefficient credit).

Note: there is a substantial shadow inventory too.

All this distressed sales activity has created a gap between new and existing sales as shown in the following graph that I've jokingly labeled the "Distressing" gap.

This graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through August.

As I've noted before, I believe this gap was caused primarily by distressed sales. Even with the recent rebound in new and existing home sales, the gap is still very wide.

The third graph shows the same information, but as a ratio for existing home sales divided by new home sales.

Although distressed sales will stay elevated for some time, eventually I expect this ratio to decline back to the previous ratio.

The ratio could decline because of a further increase in new home sales, or a decrease in existing home sales - or a combination of both. I expect the ratio will decline mostly from a decline in existing home sales as the first-time home buyer frenzy subsides, and as the foreclosure crisis moves into mid-to-high priced areas (with fewer cash flow investors).

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 429 thousand. This is a slight increase from the revised rate of 426 thousand in July (revised from 433 thousand).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2009. Sales in August 2009 were the same as August 2008. This is the 4th lowest sales for August since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.

In August 2009, 38 thousand new homes were sold (NSA); the record low was 34 thousand in August 1981; the record high for August was 110 thousand in 2005.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales fell off a cliff, but are now 30% above the low in January.

Sales of new one-family houses in August 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 429,000 ...

This is 0.7 percent (±16.2%)* above the revised July rate of 426,000, but is 3.4 percent (±13.3%) below the August 2008 estimate of 444,000.

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

There were 7.3 months of supply in August - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 262,000. This represents a supply of 7.3 months at the current sales rate.

The final graph shows new home inventory.

Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

Months-of-supply and inventory have both peaked for this cycle, and new homes sales has probably also bottomed for this cycle. However any further recovery in sales will likely be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale.

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 9/25/2009 08:33:00 AM

From the Census Bureau:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $4.0 billion or 2.4 percent to $164.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This was the second decrease in the last three months. This followed a 4.8 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders were down slightly.

Transportation equipment, also down two of the last three months, had the largest decrease, $4.0 billion or 9.3 percent to $39.5 billion. This was led by nondefense aircraft and parts, which decreased $3.7 billion.

So excluding civilian aircraft, durable goods orders were only down slightly.

The manufacturers continue to work down their unfilled orders and inventory:

Unfilled Orders
Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $2.8 billion or 0.4 percent to $737.1 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 ...

Inventories
Inventories of manufactured durable goods in August, down eight consecutive months, decreased $4.2 billion or 1.3 percent to $308.9 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent July decrease.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 09:59:00 PM

Housing economist Thomas Lawler on CNBC this morning.

"It is virtual certainty that [foreclosure] sales will pick up. Various moratoria has actually diminished the pace of sales, but as people try to see who can qualify for the modification program. But the backlog of loans in foreclosure are rising, and foreclosure sales will 100% pickup, we just don't know when."

On tax credit: "It has been very very expensive, if you look at the number of people who have claimed the credit versus estimates of the incremental number of sales that wouldn't have occurred otherwise, looks it is costing the government about $40 thousand for every home sale generated."

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 05:53:00 PM

From the FDIC: Credit Quality Declines in Annual Shared National Credits Review

Notes from the Fed:

A SNC is any loan and/or formal loan commitment, and any asset such as other real estate, stocks, notes, bonds and debentures taken as debts previously contracted, extended to borrowers by a supervised institution, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Further, a SNC must have an original amount that aggregates $20 million or more and either 1) is shared by three or more unaffiliated supervised institutions under a formal lending agreement or 2) a portion is sold to two or more unaffiliated supervised institutions with the purchasing institutions assuming their pro rata share of the credit risk.

Some key findings:

• Criticized assets, which included SNCs classified as special mention, substandard, doubtful, or loss, reached $642 billion, up from $373 billion last year, and represented 22.3 percent of the SNC portfolio compared with 13.4 percent in 2008.
...
• Classified assets, which included SNCs classified as substandard, doubtful, or loss, rose to $447 billion from $163 billion and represented 15.5 percent of the SNC portfolio, compared with 5.8 percent in 2008. Classified dollar volume increased 174 percent from a year ago.

• Special mention assets, which exhibited potential weakness and could result in further deterioration if uncorrected, declined to $195 billion from $210 billion and represented 6.8 percent of the SNC portfolio, compared with 7.5 percent in 2008.

• The severity of criticism increased with the volume of SNCs classified as doubtful and loss rising to $110 billion, up from $8 billion in 2008. Loans in nonaccrual status also increased nearly eight times to $172 billion from $22 billion. Nonaccrual loans included $32 billion in credits classified as loss and $56 billion classified doubtful.
...
• Criticized volume was led by the Media and Telecom industry group with $112 billion, Finance and Insurance with $76 billion, and Real Estate and Construction with $72 billion. These three groups also represented the highest shares of criticized credits with 17.3 percent, 11.7 percent, and 11.2 percent of criticized credits in the SNC portfolio, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

A record $447 billion in assets were classified as substandard, doubtful, or a loss, almost triple the peak following the 2001 recession. As a percent of commitments, the current 15.5% of loans "classified" far exceeds the previous peak in 1991 of just under 10% of loans.

Also, according to the FDIC, nonbanks held 47 percent of classified assets despite owning only 21.2 percent of the SNC portfolio. American Banker has an excellent quote: Syndicated Loan Losses Skyrocket

"Anyone could get credit from banks because banks knew they would have ready and willing buyers of syndicated loans even if red lights were blinking when the loans were booked." ... said Karen Shaw Petrou, the managing director of Federal Financial Analytics Inc.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 03:35:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios for Q2 today.

NOTE from Fed: "The limitations of current sources of data make the calculation of the ratio especially difficult. The ideal data set for such a calculation would have the required payments on every loan held by every household in the United States. Such a data set is not available, and thus the calculated series is only a rough approximation of the current debt service ratio faced by households. Nonetheless, this rough approximation may be useful if, by using the same method and data series over time, it generates a time series that captures the important changes in household debt service payments."

Because of these limitations, the Financial Obligations Ratio (FOR) should be used to look at changes over time, not the absolute value of the ratio.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the homeowner financial obligations for consumer and mortgage debt as a percent of disposable personal income (DPI) since 1980.

"The homeowner mortgage FOR includes payments on mortgage debt, homeowners' insurance, and property taxes, while the homeowner consumer FOR includes payments on consumer debt and automobile leases."

Consumer financial obligations are still a little high historically, but mortgage obligations are very high (especially considering the level of interest rates). Just like after the housing bubble of the late '80s/ early '90s, it will probably take some time for the mortgage FOR to decline to more normal levels.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 12:43:00 PM

We are now into the business travel season, and as expected, RevPAR is off sharply from 2008.

From HotelNewsNow.com: Oahu Island occupancy increases in STR weekly numbers

Overall the U.S. industry’s occupancy fell 8.6 percent to end the week at 59.6 percent. Average daily rate dropped 10.5 percent to finish the week at US$98.34. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 18.3 percent to finish at US$58.57.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 8.4% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 1.5%, and RevPAR is off 18.3% from the same week last year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

After Labor Day business travel becomes far more important for the hotel industry than leisure travel, and so far there is no evidence that business travel is recovering significantly - especially at the high end - from Bloomberg: Luxury Hotels in U.S. Risk Default as $850 Rooms Remain Empty

Loans secured by more than 1,500 hotels with a total outstanding balance of $24.5 billion may be in danger of default, according to Realpoint LLC, ... “All segments are showing signs of distress but the luxury segment carries much higher loan balances and is more clearly affected,” [said] Frank Innaurato [of] Realpoint ...

Occupancy among chains with the costliest rooms fell to 60 percent in the first half from 70 percent a year earlier, according to Smith Travel Research. The decline was the industry’s largest for that period. ...

The U.S. hotel loan-delinquency rate may climb to 8.2 percent by year-end, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Andy Day said in a June 23 report. That would match the peak from the last recession in 2001.

Upscale hotels are suffering from “a heightened focus on prudent corporate travel expenditures,” as well as the pullback in vacation travel, Day said.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 11:54:00 AM

First, on the "shadow inventory" from Bloomberg: Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says

The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said.

The “huge shadow inventory,” reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be, compares with 1.27 million in 2005, the analysts led by Laurie Goodman wrote today in a report. Assuming no other homes are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell the properties based on the current pace of existing-home sales, they said.
...
“The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7 million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in,” they said.

The report suggests that modifications might help - but not much. From the report:

We don’t think they can help significantly. The 12-month recidivism rate on modifications has historically been about 70%. ... We have argued ... that HAMP modifications are unlikely to be successful in the long run as it does not address negative equity, the single most important determinant of default. And the borrower will still face payment shock as the payments begins to ramp up after the 5 year period in which the payments are fixed.

Let’s say we are wrong and the HAMP modifications work much better than older style modifications. How much of the 7 million unit overhang can be cured by modification? The answer is “not much.”

The analysts estimate the overhang could be reduced by about 1 million units if the modifications are more successful than historical modifications.

However HAMP could spread out the flow of this shadow inventory over several years. So the size of the wave of more inventory is uncertain.

On the timing, from the WSJ yesterday:

"There's going to be a flood [of bank-owned homes] listed for sale at some point," says John Burns, a real-estate consultant based in Irvine, Calif.
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"We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running" for a loan modification or other alternatives, says a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman. Foreclosure sales had dropped to "abnormally low" levels in response to government efforts to stem foreclosures, she adds.

I think the 7 million estimate is probably high (that is HUGE), but there is definitely a large shadow inventory for the existing home market - so keep that in mind when looking at the following graphs:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is another graph of inventory. This graph shows inventory since 2002 by year.

The dotted lines (2002 - 2004) are for the boom years. 2005 (dashed green) is the transition year at the end of the boom. And the solid colors are for the bust years.

Inventory levels in August were below the levels of 2006.

The second graph shows months of supply for the same years.

"Months of supply" is lower than in 2007 and 2008, but higher than in 2006 since sales are lower. The level is still high.

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in existing home inventory.

In general prices would probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (closer to 6 months compared to the current 8.5 months).

Without the huge overhang of shadow inventory, this general trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels would be considered a strong positive for the housing market. However - right now - these declines are probably misleading.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2009 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Ease Following Four Monthly Gains

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – declined 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 5.10 million units in August from a pace of 5.24 million in July, but remain 3.4 percent above the 4.93 million-unit level in August 2008. In the previous four months, sales had risen a total of 15.2 percent.
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Total housing inventory at the end of August fell 10.8 percent to 3.62 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.3-month supply in July. Unsold inventory totals are 16.4 percent lower than a year ago

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in Aug 2009 (5.1 million SAAR) were 2.7% lower than last month, and were 3.4% higher than August 2008 (4.93 million SAAR).

Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):

This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. As in June and July, sales (NSA) were slightly higher in August 2009 than in August 2008.

It's important to note that many of these transactions are either investors or first-time homebuyers. Also many of the sales are distressed sales (short sales or REOs).

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in August, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions; both were unchanged from July.

The third graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.62 million in August. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Typically inventory peaks in July or August.

Note: many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs and other shadow inventory - so this inventory number is probably low.

The fourth graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply was steady at 8.5 months.

Sales decreased, but inventory decreased more, so "months of supply" declined. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still very high.

Note: New Home sales will be released tomorrow.