by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 11:26:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (unchanged from 3.6% YoY in July), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%). 

Core PCE is for July was up 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8% in June.  

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:54:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.

Services were up 4.0% YoY as of August 2025, unchanged from 4.0% YoY in July.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in August, unchanged from 3.8% YoY the previous month.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.9% YoY as of August 2025, up from 1.2% YoY the previous month.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.5% YoY in August, up from 1.1% YoY the previous month.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July)

Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in August, down from 3.7% in July. Housing (PCE) was up 4.0% YoY in July, down from 4.1% in June.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.7% YoY in August, up from 2.5% YoY in July.

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:35:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021 when it was 268,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 237,000 to 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 231,000 to 230,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,500.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were well above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2025 08:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 240 thousand from 237 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in July).

• At 12:00 PM, Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2025 12:47:00 PM

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — September 2025

The 2025 spring homebuyers season ended softly, with slower price growth dominating the narrative and potentially opening the door to more buyers.

• Year-over-year price growth dipped to 1.4% in July 2025. This is almost half the rate of inflation recorded in the Consumer Price Index that month.

• Monthly price increases have been nominal this year and were in negative territory (down 0.2%) between June and July 2025.

• South Dakota saw prices rise 6.2% year-over-year, entering the top 5 states with the highest home price growth. The full list includes New Jersey, South Dakota, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and West Virginia , all of which continue to record more than triple the national rate of price growth.

• Florida, Texas, Montana, and Washington D.C. reported negative home price growth.
...
“July’s decline in home prices is atypical — the last two periods where we saw monthly declines in July was in 2022 and during 2006-2008 period — but this year’s decline follows a year of relatively flat home prices and persistent weakness in homebuying demand,” Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp explained. “And even though price weakness has spread across more markets, 50% continue to see prices increase. The markets where prices are increasing tend to be more affordable markets in Midwest, such as the Chicago metro; Indianapolis; Cleveland; Tulsa OK; and Louisville, KY; as well as Philadelphia and the New York metro. At the same time, Florida markets and those in the West continue to see persistent price declines.”
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.

The list is dominated by Florida and Texas.  According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.

House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2025 10:19:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-September 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-September provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales). It now appears existing home prices will be down nationally year-over-year by the end of 2025. ...

Realtor.com reports in the August 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 4.9% year-over-year in July. And active listings were up 20.9% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in August, as the number of actively listed homes rose 20.9% compared to the same time last year. While this marks the 22nd consecutive month of year-on-year inventory gains, active listing growth has slowed in each of the past three months (down from 24.8% in July, 28.9% in June, and 31.5% in May. The number of homes for sale topped 1 million for the fourth consecutive month, but declined slightly since July. Still, nationwide, August inventory remains 14.3% below typical 2017–19 levels, a gap that has widened from as low as 12.9% in June, an indication that the nationwide inventory recovery is moving in the wrong direction.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 34 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.49 percent, down 20 basis points over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher. Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace. There was also a pickup in ARM applications, both in terms of level and share, as ARM rates were considerably lower than fixed rate loans, which typically benefits homebuyers.”

Added Kan, “The holiday-adjusted refinance index had its strongest week in a year and the average loan size for refinances also increased significantly, since borrowers with large loans are more sensitive to bigger rate moves. Refinance applications accounted for almost 49 percent of all applications last week.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.49 percent from 6.64 percent, with points decreasing to 0.56 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 23% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom but remains low.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2025 08:16:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2025 01:01:00 PM

The Consumer Price Index for August is scheduled to be released on Thursday, September 11th. 

The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in July).

From Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect a 0.36% increase in core CPI prices in August (vs. 0.3% consensus) and a 3.13% increase year-over-year.
...
We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.35%) and energy (+0.6%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.29% increase in core PCE prices in August.

From BofA:

We forecast headline and core CPI rose by 0.3% m/m in July owing to rising energy prices, steady tariff-driven goods inflation, and firm non-housing services. Given our m/m forecasts, we expect y/y headline CPI should rise from 2.7% to 2.9%, its highest since last July, and Core CPI y/y should remain at 3.1%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in both headline and core inflation since January 2024.

The circled area is the change for last August.   CPI was up 0.18% in August 2024, and core CPI was up 0.28%.  So, anything above those readings for August will push up year-over-year inflation.  

Starting last month, the tariff related inflation started to kick in.