by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:59:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q1

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q1 2025, mortgage debt increased $45 billion, down from $112 billion in Q4. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 12:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2024 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits fell to $169.3 trillion during the first quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities decreased $2.3 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.2 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 1.9 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

Net worth decreased $1.6 trillion in Q1.  As a percent of GDP, net worth decreased in Q1 and is below the peak in 2021.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q1 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.0% - down from 72.2% in Q4, 2024

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $45 billion in Q1.

Mortgage debt is up $2.78 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.8% - down from Q4 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q1 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

by Calculated Risk on 6/12/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 248,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 247,000 to 248,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,250, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since August 26, 2023 when it was 245,000. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 235,000 to 235,250.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:37:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 239 thousand, up from 247 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

• At 12:00 PM, Q1 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 01:00:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

A brief excerpt:

I’ve rearranged these looks at local data with closed sales first, new listings second and active inventory at the end.

I’ve also spelled Raleigh correctly!
...
In May, sales in these early reporting markets were down 3.9% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were down 1.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be higher than for the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 11:22:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (unchanged from 3.5% YoY in April), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.0% (unchanged from 3.0%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.8% (unchanged from 2.8%). 

Core PCE is for April was up 2.5% YoY, down from 2.7% in March.  

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:53:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year.  This declined and is now up 3.5% YoY.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through May 2025.

Services were up 3.7% YoY as of May 2025, unchanged from 3.7% YoY in April.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% YoY in May, up from 3.3% YoY in April.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Durables were unchanged YoY as of May 2025, up from -0.4% YoY in April.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 0.3% YoY in May, up from 0.2% YoY in April.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through May) and housing from the PCE report (through April)

Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April. Housing (PCE) was up 4.2% YoY in April, down from 4.3% in March.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 1.9% YoY in May.  This key measure has been at or below the Fed's target for 9 of the last 13 months.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.3 percent as both of its major components, the index for food at home and the index for food away from home also rose 0.3 percent in May. In contrast, the energy index declined 1.0 percent in May as the gasoline index fell over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.2-percent increase in April. Indexes that increased over the month include medical care, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, personal care, and education. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.

The all items index rose 2.4 percent for the 12 months ending May, after rising 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending April. The all items less food and energy index rose 2.8 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 3.5 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 2.9 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 6/11/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 12.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 6, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 12.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 23 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 16 percent from the previous week and was 28 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 20 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications. Treasury rates saw some movement during the week, which resulted in additional opportunities for borrowers,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The rate for 15-year fixed rate loans and FHA loans saw declines last week, while the 30-year fixed rate was largely unchanged. Purchase applications were 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace, continuing to show strength compared to a year ago. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.93 percent from 6.92 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 13% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2025 07:45:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in CPI (up 2.5% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.9% YoY).