by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2025 07:04:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. ...

20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.98 (+4.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.40 (+3.2%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Mostly Unchanged in March; Up 3.0% Year-over-year

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/03/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance.

The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed funds rate is expected.

----- Monday, May 5th -----
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8.

----- Tuesday, May 6th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $129.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $122.7 billion in February as importers rushed to beat the tariffs.

----- Wednesday, May 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, May 8th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.

----- Friday, May 9th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 07:56:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So, I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	378	461	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts. 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths. ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported since Jan 2023.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting in June 2023 (low of 314 deaths), I've continued to post since deaths are above the goal again - and I'll continue to post until weekly deaths are once again below the goal.

Weekly deaths are now decreasing following the winter pickup and are nearing the lows of last June.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of May 1st:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.  This has been moving sideways recently.

Nationally COVID in wastewater is "Low".

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 03:42:00 PM

From BofA (forecast, not tracking):

GDP contracted by 0.3% q.q saar in 1Q, despite solid final demand (+2.3%). In our assessment, the surge in imports (which took 5.0pp off 1Q growth) due to front-running of tariffs was only partially reflected in stronger inventories and final demand. So we have revised our 2Q GDP forecast to reflect a reversal of this dynamic. We now expect 2.0% headline GDP growth (vs. 0.9% previously), but with weaker final domestic sales. [May 2nd estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We launched our Q2 GDP tracking estimate at +2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales estimate at +0.6%. [May 1st estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 1.1 percent on May 1, down from 2.4 percent on April 30. After this morning’s releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 3.3 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.9 percent and -0.7 percent. [May 1st estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 01:35:00 PM

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 505 thousand.

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020.  

Heavy truck sales were at 505 thousand SAAR in April, up from 450 thousand in March, and up 0.8% from 501 thousand SAAR in April 2025 (essentially unchanged YoY).  

Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 4.6%.

Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession and sales were solid in April.  It is likely that some April truck buyers rushed to beat the tariffs - and we might see some weakness next month.

As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales were strong in April at 17.27 million SAAR as some buyers rushed to beat the tariffs.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.  

Light vehicle sales were at 17.27 million SAAR in April, down 3.1% from March, and up 7.8% from April 2024.

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 11:04:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in March

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.59%, down from 0.61% February. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in March 2024, however, this is close to the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.56%, down from 0.57% in February. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.51% in March 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 09:10:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

Earlier: April Employment Report: 177 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in April to 83.6% from 83.3% in March.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.4% the previous month.

Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in April.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 million from 4.78 million in March.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.8% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through April 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 52 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2020	113
2	Current, N/A	521
3	1990	48
4	2007	46
5	1979	45
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined.   The participation rate and employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

This was a solid employment report.

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS: Employment Situation

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000, from +228,000 to +185,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Total payrolls increased by 177 thousand in April.  Private payrolls increased by 167 thousand, and public payrolls increased 10 thousand (Federal payrolls decreased 9 thousand).

Payrolls for February and March were revised down by 58 thousand, combined.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In April, the year-over-year change was 1.88 million jobs.  Employment was up solidly year-over-year.

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.6% in April, from 62.5% in March. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.0% from 59.9% in March (blue line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2% in April from 4.2% in March.

This was above consensus expectations; however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined.  

I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/01/2025 09:04:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for April.   The consensus is for 130,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.2%.