by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2025 09:10:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined.   The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

Earlier: April Employment Report: 177 thousand Jobs, 4.2% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in April to 83.6% from 83.3% in March.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.4% the previous month.

Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in April.   

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in April. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in April to 4.69 million from 4.78 million in March.  This is above the pre-pandemic levels.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.8% from 7.9% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.46 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.44 million the previous month.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Job Streak

Through April 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 52 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).  

Headline Jobs, Top 10 Streaks
	Year Ended	Streak, Months
1	2020	113
2	Current, N/A	521
3	1990	48
4	2007	46
5	1979	45
6 tie	1943	33
6 tie	1986	33
6 tie	2000	33
9	1967	29
10	1995	25
1Currrent Streak

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however, February and March payrolls were revised down by 58,000 combined.   The participation rate and employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%.

This was a solid employment report.

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