by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 62,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 130,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 130,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in April.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 4/30/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 4.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 25, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 42 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates were little changed last week with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.89 percent. Mortgage application activity, particularly for home purchases, continues to be subdued by broader economic uncertainty and signs of labor market weakness, dropping to the slowest pace since February,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Even with the spring homebuying season underway, purchase applications decreased, as conventional and VA applications saw declines of 6 percent and 4 percent, respectively. With slowly-increasing housing inventory in many markets and first time homebuyers still in the mix, FHA purchase applications fared better with only a slight decline. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of last year’s pace.

Added Kan, “Refinance activity dipped again, as mortgage rates remained close to 7 percent, and borrowers hold out for a bigger decline in rates. Given the pullback in refinancing, the average loan size for refinances declined to just under $290,000, the lowest level in three months.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.89 percent from 6.90 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 3% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October 2023 but is 3% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased and remained very low.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 130,000 payroll jobs added in April, down from 155,000 added in March.

• At 8:30 AM, Gross Domestic Product, 1st quarter 2025 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.4% annualized in Q1, down from 2.4% in Q4.

9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for April. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, down from 47.6 in March.

• At 10:00 AM, Personal Income and Outlays, March 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.6% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.  PCE prices are expected to be up 2.6% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.2% YoY.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for March. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 03:32:00 PM

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: March 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

With a slightly less‐packed event calendar and as‐yet unclear impacts of evolving federal policies rippling thru international and domestic markets, visitation saw a ‐7.8% YoY decline as the destination hosted approximately 3.39 million visitors in March.

Rotation cycles helped convention attendance in March as the destination hosted roughly 534k attendees for the month, up 10.2% YoY, reflecting in part the calendar impact of the in‐rotation of the Healthcare Information & Management Systems Society conference (48k attendees) which was held elsewhere last year.

Occupancy reached 82.9%, down ‐2.4 pts with Weekend occupancy of 90.8% (down ‐1.0 pts) and Midweek occupancy of 79.7% (down ‐2.5 pts). ADR for the month reached $184 (+3.1% YoY) with RevPAR of $152 (+0.2% YoY).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (orange), 2024 (dark orange) and 2025 (red).

Visitor traffic was down 7.8% compared to last March.  Visitor traffic was down 8.4% compared to March 2019.

Year-to-date (YTD) visitor traffic is down 10.4% compared to the same period in 2019.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was up 10.2% compared to March 2024, and down 17.8% compared to March 2019.  

YTD convention traffic is down 5.8% compared to 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 01:28:00 PM

This substack is from a auto industry insider: Inside the Auto Tariff Battle: What Washington Is Not Saying Out Loud

A friend of mine who lives in the thick of Washington called me this week. What he said made me sit up straight.

The news is spinning a safe version of what is happening.
They are missing the real pulse.
Right now, April 2025, the Trump administration has dropped a hammer.
...
Some midsize SUVs and pickup trucks are quietly getting new sticker prices.
The big jump is expected by June.
Most insiders are whispering five to fifteen percent increases depending on the model.
Some high-volume imports could climb even higher.

CR Note: From ABC News this morning: Trump to ease tariffs faced by US automakers

President Donald Trump is set to provide tariff relief for carmakers on Tuesday, just weeks after the onset of auto levies triggered warnings of price increases.

An administration official confirmed that the 25% tariff on finished foreign-made cars and parts will remain -- but today's announcement will prevent tariffs from stacking on top of other tariffs he's imposed, such as duties on steel and aluminum.

Trump's 25% tariff on foreign auto parts goes into effect on Saturday and automakers will also be reimbursed for those tariffs up to an amount equal to 3.75% of the value of a U.S.-made car for one year. Reimbursement would fall to 2.5% of the car's value in a second year, and then completely phased out altogether.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires held at 5.4 million, and total separations changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.3 million) were unchanged and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) edged down.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for March; the employment report this Friday will be for April.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in March to 7.19 million from 7.48 million in February.

The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. 

Quits were unchanged year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 09:51:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices). January closing prices include some contracts signed in October, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.26% (a 3.1% annual rate), This was the 25th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 14 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 4.9% from the recent peak, Tampa is down 1.6% from the peak, and Denver down 1.1%.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/29/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for February ("February" is a 3-month average of December, January and February closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in February 2025

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for February, down from a 4.1% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 5.4% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from a 4.7% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% increase in February, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 7.0% and 6.6%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.5%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National, 10-City Composite, and 20-City Composite Indices presented slight upward trends in February, posting 0.4%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the 10-City and 20-City Composite Indices posted month-over-month increases of 0.5% and 0.4%. The U.S. National Composite Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%.

“Even with mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range and affordability challenges lingering, home prices have shown notable resilience,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets. Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in February (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in February.

The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in February.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 5.2% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 4.5% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 3.9% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were lower than expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 07:15:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start New Week Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today, but many lenders offered modest improvements as the day progressed.
...
As the week continues, there will be more and more scheduled events with the power to cause intraday volatility and even to impact the longer-term trend. As for that trend, it is arguably flat at the moment after experiencing significant volatility for most of the month of April. [30 year fixed 6.82%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for February. The consensus is for a 4.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for February, up from 4.7% YoY.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for February. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for March from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 4/28/2025 11:26:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in March and a Look Ahead to April Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in March.

The big story for March was that existing home sales decreased year-over-year (YoY) for the 2nd consecutive month following four consecutive months with a year-over-year increase. Sales at 4.02 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were below the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was very close (as usual).

Sales averaged close to 5.5 million SAAR for the month of March in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are still about 27% below pre-pandemic levels.

Also, months-of-supply for March was above pre-pandemic levels for the period 2017-2019.
...
Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales. Since this is NSA data, it is likely months-of-supply will increase into the Summer.

Months in red will likely see 6+ months of supply this summer and might see price pressures. There is nothing magical about 6 months; some areas see price declines with less inventory, some more.

Note: This month, for months-of-supply, I broke out Miami (Miami-Dade) from the “Miami Area” this also includes Broward County and Palm Beach.
...
More local data coming in May for activity in April!

There is much more in the article.