by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 09:49:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs

Excerpt:

From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter

Changes in U.S. trade policy over the past two weeks have impacted global financial markets, causing stock prices to fall (and then partially recover) and long-term yields to increase amidst a retreat of capital from U.S. Treasuries.

This volatility had a noticeable effect on apartment market sentiment captured in the National Multifamily Housing Council’s (NMHC’s) latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. More specifically, apartment executives who responded to this month’s survey after the announcement of tariffs on April 2nd—as opposed to the roughly half of respondents who responded in the days prior—were more likely to report worsening conditions for debt and equity financing as well as decreasing sales volume over the preceding three months.
...
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 52 this quarter – above the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since July 2022 – indicating tighter market conditions. This also appears to be the only index value that wat not meaningfully affected by market volatility this round (it makes sense that it would take longer to observe changes in the supply and demand for physical apartment space).

However, take this quarter’s survey results with a grain of salt. As economists at the NMHC mentioned, the negative impact of policy was probably not picked up in this quarter’s market tightness index.

There is much more in the article.

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 08:12:00 AM

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.36% in March

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.38% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.36% as of March 31, 2025. According to MBA’s estimate, 180,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided approximately 8.6 million forbearances since March 2020.

The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.13% in March 2025. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased by 1 basis points to 0.83%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) decreased 4 basis points to 0.33%.

“Overall mortgage performance improved in March, with more borrowers making their mortgage payments and fewer borrowers in forbearance and loan workouts compared to the prior month,” said MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis Marina Walsh, CMB. “This monthly improvement may be tied to several factors such as receipt of tax refunds and homeowner recovery from natural disasters.”

Added Walsh, “The labor market is relatively healthy, which is helping mortgage performance remain strong. However, compared to one year ago, there are fewer borrowers current on their mortgages. Also, more borrowers in loan workouts – particularly those with FHA loans – are having difficulty staying current.”
...
By reason, 76.0% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Another 21.4% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. The remaining 2.6% of borrowers are still in forbearance because of COVID-19.
emphasis added

At the end of March, there were about 180,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 07:33:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7%

The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders are expressing that sentiment by pushing stocks lower and rates higher.

Mortgage rates jumped fairly sharply today, with the average lender moving up from 6.87% to just under 7.00% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. [30 year fixed 6.98%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:03:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary pace and down 1.5% from last March’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.6% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release March Existing Home sales on Thursday, April 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.14 million SAAR, down from 4.26 million. Last year, the NAR reported sales in March 2024 at 4.12 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:01:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.8% in March compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   Outbound traffic decreased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were up 12% YoY in March and exports were down 9% YoY.    

Recently importers rushed to beat the tariffs.  And port traffic will likely slow sharply in coming months.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 10:45:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 4.9% YoY in March; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty ease March home sales, C.A.R. reports

March’s sales pace fell 2.3 percent from the 284,540 homes sold in February and was up 4.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 264,200 homes were sold on an annualized basis.

...
In March, sales in these markets were down 3.0% YoY. Last month, in February, these same markets were down 6.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in March 2025 (21) as in March 2024 (21). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be close to the change in the NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week.

Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.  

Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 32.6% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 16.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 17.5%). 

Inventory will pass 2020 levels in the next two weeks, and it now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of April 18th, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 702 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 06:37:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.68 per barrel and Brent at $67.96 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $84, and Brent was at $88 - so WTI oil prices are down about 23% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.12 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.66 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.54 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 10:00:00 AM

This is something to watch with less international travel.

Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA.

This data is as of April 16, 2025.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue).

Air travel is up about 1.3% YoY.

The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.  Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is up about 7% from pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing and Demographics

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March

• Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.