by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 08:43:00 AM

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $59.6 billion in August, down $18.6 billion from $78.2 billion in July, revised.

August exports were $280.8 billion, $0.2 billion more than July exports. August imports were $340.4 billion, $18.4 billion less than July imports.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased slightly and imports decreased in August. 

Exports were up 1.9% year-over-year; imports were down 1.9% year-over-year.

Imports increased sharply earlier this year as importers rushed to beat tariffs.  

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $18.9 billion from $27.8 billion a year ago.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. The overall average loan size across both purchase and refinance applications dipped to its lowest level since August of this year, driven by another drop in the ARM share.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 08:23:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 28-29

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 03:46:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were down 12.5% YoY in October, and exports were down 5.1% YoY.    

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.2% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   

Outbound traffic decreased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

This is the 11th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 01:03:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales hit highest level since February, C.A.R. reports

California home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago to reach the highest level since February, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,590 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October home sales edged up 1.9 percent from 277,410 in September to 282,590 in October. Home sales improved 4.1 percent from a revised 271,370 recorded a year earlier.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/18/2025 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, up from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist

Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 07:39:00 PM

NOTE from Fed:

The industrial production indexes that are published in the G.17 Statistical Release on Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown. Consequently, the G.17 monthly release will not be published as scheduled on November 18, 2025.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET,Housing Starts for October.

• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for no change in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.3%.

• At 10:00 AM, The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 36, down from 37. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 11:44:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these markets were down 0.3% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 8.0% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 10:15:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during August 2025 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,169.5 billion, 0.2 percent above the revised July estimate of $2,165.0 billion. The August figure is 1.6 percent below the August 2024 estimate of $2,205.3 billion.
emphasis added

Private spending increased and public spending was unchanged:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent above the revised July estimate of $1,647.5 billion. ...

n August, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $517.3 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised July estimate of $517.5 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Private residential (red) spending is 6.5% below the peak in 2022.

Private non-residential (blue) spending is 6.8% below the peak in December 2023.

Public construction spending (orange) is close to the peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is down 2.0%. Private non-residential spending is down 4.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 2.7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 16.3% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.7%), and down 5.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.6%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of November 14th, inventory was at 840 thousand (7-day average), compared to 842 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube