by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2025 08:12:00 AM

Omdia reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.3 million in October on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). October US Light Vehicle Sales Decline 4.5% YoY; 15.3 Million SAAR Lowest in 15 Months (pay site)

Demand in October fell to a longtime low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units as deliveries of battery-electric vehicles tanked and most segments recorded declines.

This was down 6.7% from the sales rate in September, and down 5% from October 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".

Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in October were below the consensus forecast of 15.5 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 07:22:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates in Just Over 3 Weeks

In terms of MND's 30yr fixed index, we're currently at 6.34% versus last week's low of 6.13%. Contrast that to rates just under 7% in June and 7.25% earlier this year. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
emphasis added

Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 02:00:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: The October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices

he October 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2025.

Regarding loans to businesses over the third quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes.2 Banks also reported, on balance, stronger demand for C&I loans from large and middle-market firms and basically unchanged demand from small firms. Furthermore, banks reported generally unchanged standards and demand for most commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories.

For loans to households, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and stronger demand for residential mortgage loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) on balance. For consumer loans, standards remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and eased for auto loans. Meanwhile, demand remained basically unchanged for credit card and other consumer loans and weakened for auto loans.

The October SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about the likelihood of approving C&I and credit card loan applications in comparison with the beginning of the year—by firm size and trade exposure levels for C&I loans and by borrower risk for credit card loans. Banks reported being more likely to approve C&I loan applications from both large and small firms with low trade exposures and less likely to approve C&I loan applications from firms of all sizes with high trade exposures. Banks also reported being more likely to approve credit card applications from super-prime and prime borrowers but less likely to approve applications from near-prime or subprime borrowers.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts.

This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021, but has picked up slightly recently.

The left graph is from 1990 to 2014.  The right graph is from 2015 to Q3 2025.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 10:52:00 AM

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.9% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent dipped by 0.8% in October, and now stands at $1,381. This was the third consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines to close out the year.

Realtor.com: 26th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

September 2025 marks the 26th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $36, or -2.1%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in October, down from 49.1% in September. The employment index was at 46.0%, up from 45.3% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.4%, up from 48.9%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.7% October 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in October for the eighth consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7 percent in October, a 0.4-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 49.1 percent recorded in September. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 66th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the second month in October following one month of growth; the figure of 49.4 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 48.9 percent recorded in September. The October reading of the Production Index (48.2 percent) is 2.8 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 51 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 58 percent, down 3.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 61.9 percent reported in September. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, up 1.7 percentage points compared to the 46.2 percent recorded in September. The Employment Index registered 46 percent, up 0.7 percentage point from September’s figure of 45.3 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month in October..  This was below the consensus forecast, and employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.3% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 16.5% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 17.9%), and down 6.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 6.5%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 31st, inventory was at 857 thousand (7-day average), compared to 868 thousand the prior week.  

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 06:13:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of November 2, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

• At 2:00 PM, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 11 and DOW futures are up 58 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $60.98 per barrel and Brent at $64.77 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $70, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 13% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.00 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.06 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.06 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2025 10:04:00 AM

Here is another update on lumber prices.

SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.

This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).

On October 31, 2025, LBR was at $539.50 per 1,000 board feet, down 3% from a year ago.

Click on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.

The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  

Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.5% year-over-year in August

• Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September

• Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Increased in September

• Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.8% Below 2022 Peak

• Final Look at Housing Markets in September and a Look Ahead to October Sales

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key (missing) report this week is the October employment report.

Other key indicators include October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 3rd -----
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 49.2, up from 49.1. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.

2:00 PM: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) for October.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.5million SAAR, down from 16.4 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

----- Tuesday, November 4th -----
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

----- Wednesday, November 5th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

11:00 AM: NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Thursday, November 6th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

----- Friday, November 7th -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).