by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 08:01:00 AM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 17.0% YoY, but still down 13.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Sept. 27

• Active inventory climbed 16.2% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 16.2% year over year, the easing compared to last week for the 15th straight time. Nevertheless, last week was the 99th consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 22nd week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—down 0.5% year over year

New listings fell 0.5% last week compared with the same period last year, marking just the third weekly decline since April. This softening is reflected in the September Monthly Housing Report data, where newly listed homes fell 1.2% year over year. The decline in new listings is in part behind the slowdown in national inventory gains over the past few months, as sellers retreat from the market.

• The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, we saw the price per square foot fell 0.5% year over year for the fourth consecutive week. The price per square foot had been growing steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and stalled out this metric, suggesting underlying home values are starting to soften—at least in national aggregates.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:13:00 PM

NOTE: The employment report will not be released due to the government shutdown.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• At 10:00 AM,: the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 01:41:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 September

Impacted by the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 27 September. ...

21-27 September 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 65.6% (-4.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$166.48 (-2.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$109.15 (-6.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase during the Fall travel period.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 10:57:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak

Excerpt:

It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!

In the July Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 77% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.8% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1.2% above the bubble peak.

People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $444,000 today adjusted for inflation (48% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.

The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
...
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).

In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.7% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 2.9% below the recent peak in 2022.

Both the real National index and the Comp-20 index decreased in July.

It has now been 38 months since the real peak in house prices. Typically, after a sharp increase in prices, it takes a number of years for real prices to reach new highs (see House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory)

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:11:00 AM

Note: Heavy truck sales will not be available from the BEA during the shutdown.

Omida reported that light vehicle sales were at 16.4 million in September on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

This was up 2% from the sales rate in August, and up 4% from September 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through July (red).

Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".

Then sales were depressed in May and June. 

Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in September were above the consensus forecast of 16.2 million SAAR.

A solid September was expected, but there is concern about sales in Q4. Earlier, from Haig Stoddard at Omdia (pay site): US Light Vehicle Sales in September Tracking to Another Gain as Auto Industry Casts a Wary Eye on 4Q

September US light-vehicle sales will continue the market strength seen all year, but all eyes are on the fourth quarter as tariff-related pull-ahead volume dissipates, EV credits disappear, and automakers price their ’26 models.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:31:00 PM

NOTE: Unemployment claims will not be released with the government shutdown. Also, I use the BEA for vehicle sales data and that will not be released.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 11:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.10% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.6% in August, down from up 1.7% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. ...

As of August, 20 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Florida (-3.3), Arizona (-3.1%), New Mexico (-2.3%), D.C. (-2.1%) and Idaho (-1.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 186 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 15 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

Texas has the 2nd most CBSAs on the list.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.9%, down from 51.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% September 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August’s figure of 43.8 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in September.  This was at the consensus forecast, although employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 48,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 43,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “With the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.46 percent, refinance activity declined for all loan types, including a 22 percent decrease in conventional refinances and 27 percent decrease in VA refinances. The average loan size for refinances dropped to $380,100 from $461,300 two weeks ago as these higher rates eliminated the refinance incentive for many borrowers with large loans.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were down slightly over the week after three consecutive increases, but the strength of the purchase market has also been impacted by other factors such as broader economic conditions, the health of the job market, and housing inventory.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.46 percent from 6.34 percent, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased significantly from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.