by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “With the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.46 percent, refinance activity declined for all loan types, including a 22 percent decrease in conventional refinances and 27 percent decrease in VA refinances. The average loan size for refinances dropped to $380,100 from $461,300 two weeks ago as these higher rates eliminated the refinance incentive for many borrowers with large loans.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were down slightly over the week after three consecutive increases, but the strength of the purchase market has also been impacted by other factors such as broader economic conditions, the health of the job market, and housing inventory.”
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.46 percent from 6.34 percent, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased significantly from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.