by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 11:59:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year

A brief excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.10% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in August. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 1.6% in August, down from up 1.7% YoY in July. The YoY increase peaked at 19.2% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 1.1% YoY in April 2023. ...

As of August, 20 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in Florida (-3.3), Arizona (-3.1%), New Mexico (-2.3%), D.C. (-2.1%) and Idaho (-1.8%).

For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 186 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.

Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Punta Gorda has passed Austin as the worst performing city. Note that 4 of the 5 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. And 15 of the 30 cities are in Florida.

Texas has the 2nd most CBSAs on the list.

There is much more in the article!

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 10:00:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.1% in September, up from 48.7% in August. The employment index was at 45.3%, up from 43.8% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 48.9%, down from 51.4%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1% September 2025 ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August’s figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August’s figure of 43.8 percent.
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in September.  This was at the consensus forecast, although employment was weak and prices very strong.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 08:15:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Shed 32,000 Jobs in September; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 48,000 jobs added. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 43,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 12.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 12.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 13 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 21 percent from the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased to its highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger than expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “With the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.46 percent, refinance activity declined for all loan types, including a 22 percent decrease in conventional refinances and 27 percent decrease in VA refinances. The average loan size for refinances dropped to $380,100 from $461,300 two weeks ago as these higher rates eliminated the refinance incentive for many borrowers with large loans.”

Added Kan, “Purchase applications were down slightly over the week after three consecutive increases, but the strength of the purchase market has also been impacted by other factors such as broader economic conditions, the health of the job market, and housing inventory.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.46 percent from 6.34 percent, with points increasing to 0.61 from 0.57 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased significantly from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 07:51:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 48,000 jobs added, down from 54,000 in August.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in August. 

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 02:20:00 PM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through July 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  

The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (“July” is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices). May closing prices include some contracts signed in March, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.06% (a -0.8% annual rate). This was the fifth consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 10 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.9% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 5.2% from the peak, and Tampa down 3.7%..

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August; the employment report this Friday will be for September (if it is released).

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in August to 7.23 million from 7.21million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in July 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.7% annual gain for July, down from a 1.9% rise in the previous month. The 10- City Composite increased 2.3%, down from a 2.7% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 1.8%, down from a 2.2% increase in the previous month.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.4% increase in July, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.1%. Both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1%, respectively.
...
“July’s results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices rose just 1.7% year-over-year, down from June’s 1.9% pace and a far cry from the double-digit gains of two years ago. In fact, this is one of the weakest annual price increases in the past decade – and notably, it’s below the 2.7% rise in consumer prices over the same period. In other words, U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners. This reversal is striking: during the pandemic boom, home prices were climbing far faster than inflation, rapidly boosting homeowners’ real equity. Now, the situation has flipped – over the last year, owning a home yielded a modest nominal gain, but an inflation-adjusted loss.

“What’s keeping price growth barely in positive territory at all is the rebound we saw earlier in 2025 offsetting a soft patch in late 2024. National home prices edged down slightly last autumn and then crept back up in the first half of this year. The net result is that July’s index level is only about 1.7% higher than a year ago. Essentially, the market experienced a minor dip and recovery within a 12-month span, leaving us with little overall appreciation. This kind of volatile plateau stands in stark contrast to the roaring price surges of 2021, and it underscores just how decisively the market’s momentum has cooled.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in July (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.

The National index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.3% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.8% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.7% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 08:38:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Flat to Start New Week

It was an uneventful day for the bond market (and, thus, interest rates) as investors wait for clarity on this week's potential government shutdown. It's not the shutdown itself that would notable. Rather, it would be the absence of this Friday's jobs report (published by the Federal government) as it would deprive the rate market of its brightest guiding light.

In the bigger picture, after last month's jobs report helped usher rates to the lowest levels in nearly a year, other economic reports gradually pushed back in the other direction. With the labor market showing some signs of potential weakness, each new jobs report will be critical in determining if there will be additional runs toward new long-term lows.

Even a stop-gap/short-term funding bill would be sufficient. The deadline for a decision is 12:01am ET on Wednesday morning. [30 year fixed 6.38%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 2.3% year-over-year increase in the National index for July.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for July. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, up from 41.5 in August.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.