by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 02:20:00 PM

Another update ... a few key points:
1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the month-to-month change in the NSA Case-Shiller National index since 1987 (through July 2025). The seasonal pattern was smaller back in the '90s and early '00s and increased once the bubble burst.

The seasonal swings declined following the bust, however the pandemic price surge changed the month-over-month pattern.  

The peak MoM increase in NSA prices this year was the smallest since 2008!

The second graph shows the seasonal factors for the Case-Shiller National index since 1987. The factors started to change near the peak of the bubble, and really increased during the bust since normal sales followed the regular seasonal pattern - and distressed sales happened all year.   

The swings in the seasonal factors were decreasing following the bust but have increased again recently - this time without a surge in distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 10:10:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July

Excerpt:

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (“July” is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices). May closing prices include some contracts signed in March, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.06% (a -0.8% annual rate). This was the fifth consecutive MoM decrease.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 10 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities. San Francisco has fallen 8.9% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 5.2% from the peak, and Tampa down 3.7%..

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for August; the employment report this Friday will be for September (if it is released).

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings increased in August to 7.23 million from 7.21million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 6% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2025 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3-month average of May, June and July closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index Records Annual Gain in July 2025

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.7% annual gain for July, down from a 1.9% rise in the previous month. The 10- City Composite increased 2.3%, down from a 2.7% rise in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year gain of 1.8%, down from a 2.2% increase in the previous month.

New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.4% increase in July, followed by Chicago and Cleveland with annual increases of 6.2% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 2.8%.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a decrease of -0.1%. Both the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite Indices posted drops of -0.1%, respectively.
...
“July’s results reinforce that the housing market has downshifted to a much slower gear,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “National home prices rose just 1.7% year-over-year, down from June’s 1.9% pace and a far cry from the double-digit gains of two years ago. In fact, this is one of the weakest annual price increases in the past decade – and notably, it’s below the 2.7% rise in consumer prices over the same period. In other words, U.S. home values have essentially stagnated after inflation, marking the third straight month of real housing wealth decline for homeowners. This reversal is striking: during the pandemic boom, home prices were climbing far faster than inflation, rapidly boosting homeowners’ real equity. Now, the situation has flipped – over the last year, owning a home yielded a modest nominal gain, but an inflation-adjusted loss.

“What’s keeping price growth barely in positive territory at all is the rebound we saw earlier in 2025 offsetting a soft patch in late 2024. National home prices edged down slightly last autumn and then crept back up in the first half of this year. The net result is that July’s index level is only about 1.7% higher than a year ago. Essentially, the market experienced a minor dip and recovery within a 12-month span, leaving us with little overall appreciation. This kind of volatile plateau stands in stark contrast to the roaring price surges of 2021, and it underscores just how decisively the market’s momentum has cooled.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was down 0.1% in July (SA).  The Composite 20 index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.

The National index was down 0.1% (SA) in July.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 NSA was up 2.3% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 NSA was up 1.8% year-over-year.

The National index NSA was up 1.7% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 08:38:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Flat to Start New Week

It was an uneventful day for the bond market (and, thus, interest rates) as investors wait for clarity on this week's potential government shutdown. It's not the shutdown itself that would notable. Rather, it would be the absence of this Friday's jobs report (published by the Federal government) as it would deprive the rate market of its brightest guiding light.

In the bigger picture, after last month's jobs report helped usher rates to the lowest levels in nearly a year, other economic reports gradually pushed back in the other direction. With the labor market showing some signs of potential weakness, each new jobs report will be critical in determining if there will be additional runs toward new long-term lows.

Even a stop-gap/short-term funding bill would be sufficient. The deadline for a decision is 12:01am ET on Wednesday morning. [30 year fixed 6.38%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 2.3% year-over-year increase in the National index for July.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for July. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, up from 41.5 in August.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 05:06:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.56%, up from 0.55% July. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in August 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in July. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in August 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 02:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.

There were several key stories for August:

• Sales NSA are down 1.2% YoY through August, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for August since 2015).

• The median price is up 2.0% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of August in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In August, sales in these markets were down 1.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were down 0.8% year-over-year in August (close).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was positive while the NSA data showed a decline (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in October for activity in September!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 4.0% Increase in August

Pending home sales in August increased by 4.0% from the prior month and rose 3.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Month-Over-Month
4.0% increase in pending home sales
Gains in the Midwest, South, and West; Decline in the Northeast

Year-Over-Year
3.8% increase in pending home sales
Gains across all regionst
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was unchanged week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 18.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 19.0%), and down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.5%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 26th, inventory was at 863 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2025 06:26:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 28, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.1% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly flat (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.72 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.18 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.09 year-over-year.