by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 02:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.

There were several key stories for August:

• Sales NSA are down 1.2% YoY through August, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for August since 2015).

• The median price is up 2.0% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of August in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In August, sales in these markets were down 1.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were down 0.8% year-over-year in August (close).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was positive while the NSA data showed a decline (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in October for activity in September!

There is much more in the article.