by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 05:06:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic)

Excerpt:

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.56%, up from 0.55% July. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.52% in August 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.53%, unchanged from 0.53% in July. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in August 2024, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 02:45:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Housing Markets in August and a Look Ahead to September Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in August.

There were several key stories for August:

• Sales NSA are down 1.2% YoY through August, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995!

• Sales SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) have bounced around 4 million for the last 2 1/2 years.

• Months-of-supply is above pre-pandemic levels (this is the highest level for August since 2015).

• The median price is up 2.0% YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see further price declines - and we might see national price declines later this year (or in 2026).

Sales at 4.00 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were slightly above the consensus estimate.

Sales averaged close to 5.40 million SAAR for the month of August in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In August, sales in these markets were down 1.8% YoY. The NAR reported sales NSA were down 0.8% year-over-year in August (close).

Important: There were one fewer working days in August 2025 (21) as in August 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was positive while the NSA data showed a decline (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local data coming in October for activity in September!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 4.0% Increase in August

Pending home sales in August increased by 4.0% from the prior month and rose 3.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Month-Over-Month
4.0% increase in pending home sales
Gains in the Midwest, South, and West; Decline in the Northeast

Year-Over-Year
3.8% increase in pending home sales
Gains across all regionst
emphasis added

Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was unchanged week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 18.0% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 19.0%), and down 9.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.5%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of September 26th, inventory was at 863 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2025 06:26:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of September 28, 2025

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.1% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly flat (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $65.72 per barrel and Brent at $70.13 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $69, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 5% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.09 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.18 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.09 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/28/2025 11:38:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: NAR “Fixes” Median Sales Price for July

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

While many folks didn’t notice it, the National Association of Realtor’s August Existing Homes Sales Report including a significant upward revision in median sales prices for July. Below is a table showing the preliminary and revised median existing home sales prices for all sales and for single-family sales.

As the table shows, in the latest report the NAR revised the YOY % change in the median existing home sales price by about 0.8 percentage points. Virtually all of this upward revision was the result of a massive upward revision in the YOY % change in the median existing home sales price in the Northeast region -- to 6.1% from 0.8% for all sales, and to 6.7% from 0.8% for single family sales!

As I noted in my August 26th report, the 0.8% reported increase in Northeast median sales price in the July NAR report was completely inconsistent with reported median sales price increases from state realtor organizations in the Northeast, which suggested significantly higher median sales price gains.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.00 million SAAR in August

• New Home Sales increased to 800,000 Annual Rate in August

• FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

• Household Formation Drives Housing Demand

• California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 5th Straight Month

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2025 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include Case-Shiller house prices for July, the September ISM Manufacturing and Services indices, and September auto sales.

----- Monday, September 29th -----
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.1% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

----- Tuesday, September 30th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.3% year-over-year increase in the National index for July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 43.0, up from 41.5 in August.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

----- Wednesday, October 1st -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 48,000 jobs added, down from 54,000 in August.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in August. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease.

----- Thursday, October 2nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 220 thousand from 218 thousand last week.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September.

The consensus is for sales of 16.2 million SAAR, up from 16.1 million SAAR in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.



----- Friday, October 3rd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

There were 22,000 jobs added in August, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for September.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2025 01:17:00 PM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.6% q/q saar from 2.1% & BEA revised 2Q GDP up from 3.3% to 3.8% in the third estimate. [September 26th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger consumer spending in August and a more favorable monthly path between Q2 and Q3 than we had previously assumed. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate now stands at +1.9%. [September 26th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.9 percent on September 26, up from 3.3 percent on September 17. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the National Association of Realtors, a decrease in the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 6.4 percent to 4.1 percent was more than offset by increases in the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 2.7 percent to 3.4 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth from 0.08 percentage points to 0.58 percentage points. [September 26th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2025 10:17:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s Q2 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q2 2025 (released yesterday).
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 52.5%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 70.4%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.

This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.

There is much more in the article.