by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 11:01:00 AM

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking is up a tenth to 1.7% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 3.2%. Here are the details to our tracking changes. [September 12th comment]
emphasis added

From Goldman:

Our Q3 GDP forecast stands at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [September 10th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.1 percent on September 10, up from 3.0 percent on September 4. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, increases in the nowcasts of real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth from 2.1 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.2 percent, were partly offset by a decline in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to GDP growth from 0.28 percentage points to 0.23 percentage points. [September 10th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 08:14:00 AM

The BLS reported yesterday:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 317.306 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2024, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 308.729.

The 2024 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 2.8% year-over-year in August (up from 2.5% YoY in July), and although this is early - we need the data for July, August and September - my guess is COLA will probably be around 2.8% this year, up from 2.5% in 2025.

Contribution and Benefit Base

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2024 yet, although we know wages increased solidly in 2024. If wages increased 5% in 2024, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $185,000 in 2026, from the current $176,100.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:00:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for September).

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 02:46:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q2

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q2 2025, mortgage debt increased $108 billion, up from $44 billion in Q1. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 02:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $176.3 trillion during the second quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate increased $1.2 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 3.8 percent at an annual rate in the second quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

Net worth increased $7.1 trillion in Q2.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q2 but is still below the peak in 2021.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q2 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 72.6% - up from 72.0% in Q1, 2025

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $108 billion in Q2.

Mortgage debt is up $2.88 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 44.6% - down from Q1 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, increased in Q2 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 11:26:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (unchanged from 3.6% YoY in July), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.3% (up from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.1% (unchanged from 3.1%). 

Core PCE is for July was up 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8% in June.  

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:54:00 AM

Here are a few measures of inflation:

The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August 2025.

Services were up 4.0% YoY as of August 2025, unchanged from 4.0% YoY in July.

Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in August, unchanged from 3.8% YoY the previous month.

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions.

Now the YoY change in prices is increasing due to tariffs.

Durables were up 1.9% YoY as of August 2025, up from 1.2% YoY the previous month.

Commodities less food and energy commodities were at 1.5% YoY in August, up from 1.1% YoY the previous month.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through August) and housing from the PCE report (through July)

Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in August, down from 3.7% in July. Housing (PCE) was up 4.0% YoY in July, down from 4.1% in June.

This is still catching up with private new lease data (this includes renewals whereas private data is mostly for new leases).

Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.7% YoY in August, up from 2.5% YoY in July.

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:35:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.

The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending August, after rising 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.1 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 0.2 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 3.2 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021 when it was 268,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 237,000 to 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 231,000 to 230,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 240,500.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were well above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2025 08:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 240 thousand from 237 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9% year-over-year (up from 2.7% in July) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in July).

• At 12:00 PM, Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.