by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 9 August

The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. ...

3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.0% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.61 (-0.6%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.47 (-1.6%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally into the Fall.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 12:26:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease Slightly in the Second Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.93 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies decreased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased year-over-year from 0.43 percent in Q2 2024 to 0.48 percent in Q2 2025 (red) but remains historically low.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 10:05:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-July provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

The key stories this year for existing homes are that inventory increased sharply, and sales are down slightly compared to last year (and sales in 2024 were the lowest since 1995). That means prices are under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales).

And it has been a disappointing year for new homebuilders (but not as horrible as the housing bust!). Homebuilders have a growing number of completed homes for sales, a larger than normal number of unsold homes under construction and are reducing prices to compete with more existing home inventory.

Realtor.com reports in the July 2025 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report that new listings were up 7.3% year-over-year in July. And active listings were up 24.8% year-over-year.

Homebuyers found more options in July, as the number of actively listed homes rose 24.8% compared with the same time last year. There are now over 1.1 million homes for sale nationwide, the third consecutive month with over 1 million active listings.

While July marks the 21st consecutive month of inventory gains, the pace of growth is beginning to slow. Active listings rose less than in prior months—down from 28.9% in June and 31.5% in May—suggesting the post-pandemic inventory recovery could be stalling a bit. Nationally, total active listings in July remained 13.4% below typical 2017–19 levels, a slightly wider gap than last month’s 12.9% shortfall. Overall, inventory growth seems to be slightly decelerating after taking off in early spring.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 226,000 to 227,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,750, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 220,750 to 221,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 221,750.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 07:30:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 228 thousand from 226 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for July from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 01:19:00 PM

Here is a look at the change in teen employment over time.

The graph below shows the employment-population ratio for teens (16 to 19 years old) since 1948.

The graph is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), to show the seasonal hiring of teenagers during the summer.

A few observations:
1) Although teen employment has recovered some since the great recession, overall teen employment had been trending down. This is probably because more people are staying in school (a long term positive for the economy).

2) Teen employment was significantly impacted in 2020 by the pandemic.

Click on graph for larger image.

3) A smaller percentage of teenagers are obtaining summer employment. The seasonal spikes are smaller than in previous decades. 

The teen employment-population ratio was 35.2% in July 2025, down from 37.9% in July 2024.  Excluding 2020 due to the pandemic, this is the lowest ratio since 2015 following the financial crisis.

The teen participation rate was 42.0% in July 2025, down from 43.6% the previous July. 

This has pushed the teen unemployment rate (NSA) up to 16.1% from 13.2% in July 2024.

So, a smaller percentage of teenagers are joining the labor force during the summer as compared to previous years. This could be because of fewer employment opportunities, or because teenagers are pursuing other activities during the summer.

The decline in teenager participation is one of the reasons the overall participation rate has declined (of course, the retiring baby boomers is the main reason the overall participation rate has declined over the last 20+ years).

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 09:50:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

Closed sales in July were mostly for contracts signed in May and June, and mortgage rates, according to the Freddie Mac PMMS, 6.82% in May and 6.82% in June (somewhat higher than for closed sales in June).

In July, sales in these early reporting markets were down 1.4% YoY. Last month, in June, these same markets were up 3.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in July 2025 (22) as in July 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 10.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 8, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 23 percent from the previous week and was 8 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.67 percent last week, which spurred the strongest week for refinance activity since April. Borrowers responded favorably, as refinance applications increased 23 percent, driven mostly by conventional and VA applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinances accounted for 46.5 percent of applications and as seen in other recent refinance bursts, the average loan size grew significantly to $366,400. Borrowers with larger loan sizes continue to be more sensitive to rate movements.”

Added Kan, “Given the relative attractiveness of ARM rates compared to fixed rate loans, ARM applications increased 25 percent to their highest level since 2022, and the ARM share of all applications was almost 10 percent. However, lower rates were not enough to entice more homebuyers back into the market, as purchase applications were only up around one percent over the week, although still stronger than last year’s pace.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.67 percent from 6.77 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 17% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased and is picking up a little with lower mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 07:42:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2025 02:13:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in July. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.6% (unchanged from 3.6% YoY in June), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.1% (up from 2.9%). 

Core PCE is for June was up 2.8% YoY, unchanged from 2.8% in May.