by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 02:06:00 PM

From BofA:

We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 21st]
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From Goldman:

[W]e lowered our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.9% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q1 domestic final sales estimate by 0.1pp to +2.1%. We left our Q4 past quarter tracking estimate unchanged at +2.1%. [Feb 19th estimate]

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

[T]he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is 2.3 percent on February 19, unchanged from February 14 after rounding. [Feb 19th estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 11:05:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

Excerpt:

Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years.
...
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales increased 2.0% year-over-year compared to January 2024.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month

Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in three regions and were unchanged in the South.

Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – descended 4.9% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million in January. Year-over-year, sales improved 2.0% (up from 4 million in January 2024).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of January was 1.18 million units, up 3.5% from December and 16.8% from one year ago (1.01 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.5-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 3.2 months in December and 3.0 months in January 2024.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate.  This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after declining YoY every month for over 3 years.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.18 million in January from 1.14 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 16.8% year-over-year (blue) in January compared to January 2024.

Months of supply (red) increased to 3.5 months in January from 3.2 months the previous month.

The sales rate was below the consensus forecast.  I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 08:07:00 AM

From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge

• Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels

• Foreclosure starts jumped by 30% and sales rose by 25% in January – driven by an expiration in the VA foreclosure moratorium – with active inventory rising by 7% in the month

• While the number of borrowers past due as a result of last year’s hurricanes has fallen from 58K to 41K in recent months, the financial impact from the recent Los Angeles wildfires is emerging

• An estimated 680 homeowners in the path of the Los Angeles wildfires missed their January mortgage payment, and ICE’s daily mortgage performance data suggests the number of past-due borrowers could surpass 2,800 by the end of February.

• Prepayment activity (SMM) fell to 0.48% in January, its lowest level in nearly a year, driven by the combination of modestly higher rates and the typical seasonal slowdown in home sale activity
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Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 07:01:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million.

• Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for February).

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 03:25:00 PM

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 

 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.6% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Feb. 15, 2025

• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.6% above year-ago levels

For the 67th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. This week also marked the sixth straight week where the growth rate has increased, fueled by the entrance of many new listings on the market.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 5%

Newly listed inventory increased year over year for the sixth week in a row, as sellers go online for the spring buying season. Despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high and many prospective sellers feeling the lock-in effect due to their lower previous rates, new homes are hitting the market at a faster pace than in 2024 at this time.

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. 

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 67th consecutive week.  

New listings have jumped recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 12:36:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

A brief excerpt:

Here a few more local markets prior to the NAR release tomorrow.

The NAR is scheduled to release January Existing Home sales on Friday, February 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million in December. Last year, the NAR reported sales in January 2024 at 4.00 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.09 million SAAR for January.
...
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): Elevated mortgage rates drag down January home sales, C.A.R. reports

January’s sales pace fell from the 282,490 homes sold in December and was down 1.9 percent from a year ago, when a revised 259,160 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The January sales level was the lowest in 13 months, and the double-digit month-to-month sales decline was the biggest decrease in 30 months. The year-over-year decline was the first in eight months.

...
Several local markets - like Illinois, Miami, New Jersey and New York - will report after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 09:49:00 AM

This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%!

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.9% in January compared to the rolling 12 months ending in December.   Outbound traffic was unchanged compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  

Imports were up 25% YoY in January and exports were down slightly YoY.    

This was a very strong July through January period as importers were likely stockpiling goods prior to the increase in tariffs. 

by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,000 to 216,250.
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The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 215,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 2/19/2025 07:24:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 216 thousand from 213 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The Philly Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of 25.4, down from 44.3.