by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2024 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 17.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 11, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 17.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 17 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 26 percent from the previous week and was 111 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates moved higher for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.52 percent, its highest level since August,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The recent uptick in rates has put a damper on applications. Refinance applications fell 26 percent to their lowest level since August, with comparable drops in both conventional and government refinances. This pushed the refinance share of applications back below 50 percent for the first time in over a month. Furthermore, purchase applications also decreased but notably remain 7 percent higher than a year ago.”

Added Kan, “Demand is holding up to an extent for prospective first-time buyers. FHA purchase applications were little changed despite the increase in rates, as some first-time homebuyers remain in the market because of improving housing inventory conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.52 percent from 6.36 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is up about 10% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 8% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased significantly as mortgage rates declined last month but decreased over the last three weeks as rates increased.

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 07:54:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 12:13:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024

A brief excerpt:

On Friday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.

“If you do not know where you come from, then you don't know where you are, and if you don't know where you are, then you don't know where you're going. And if you don't know where you're going, you're probably going wrong.” Terry Pratchett

These “Current State” summaries show us where we came from, where we are, and hopefully give us clues as to where we are going!

The Case-Shiller National Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in July and will likely slow further in the August report (based on other data).

For the second consecutive month, the MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.18% (a 2.2% annual rate), This was the eighteenth consecutive MoM increase, but this tied the previous as the smallest MoM increase in the last 18 months.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2024 08:49:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Changes in Various Interest Rates Since the FOMC Cut Its Target Fed Funds Rate by 50 Basis Points

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table showing changes in various interest rates from the day before the FOMC’s 50 basis point cut in its Fed Funds rate target and last Friday.

CR Notes: After the Fed rate cut, the longer-term rates increased (including mortgage rates). The yield curve has reverted ...

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 11:19:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available).

This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 40 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

Closed sales in September were mostly for contracts signed in July and August when 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.85% and 6.50%, respectively (Freddie Mac PMMS).
...
In September, sales in these markets were down 4.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 5.1% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in September 2024 (20) as in September 2023 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the NSA data. Last month there was one fewer working day in August 2024 compared to August 2023 (22 vs 23), so seasonally adjusted sales were down less than NSA sales.
...
This data suggests that the September existing home sales report will show a year-over-year decline.
...
Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2024 08:17:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 48.3% from the February seasonal bottom.  

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 34.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 36.7%), and down 22/6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.1%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 11th, inventory was at 732 thousand (7-day average), compared to 734 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 10/13/2024 09:20:00 AM

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 5 October

Due to Rosh Hashana, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 5 October. ...

29 September through 5 October 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

• Occupancy: 65.6% (-3.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.25 (-4.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$102.44 (-7.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is near the peak for the fall business travel season, and then will decline during the holidays.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• ICE Mortgage Monitor: Insurance Costs "Spike", Especially in Florida

• House Prices to Income

• Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2024

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/12/2024 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are September Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, October 14th -----
Columbus Day Holiday: Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day. The stock market will be open.

----- Tuesday, October 15th -----
8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 2.4, down from 11.5.

----- Wednesday, October 16th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, October 17th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 258 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 3.0, up from 1.7.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.9%.

10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 42, up from 41 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Friday, October 18th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.350 million SAAR, down from 1.356 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 10/11/2024 07:11:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly.

Note: "Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital capacity, or hospital occupancy data."  So I'm no longer tracking hospitalizations.

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
Deaths per Week	1,157	1,159	≤3501
1my goals to stop weekly posts, 🚩 Increasing number weekly for Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the weekly (columns) number of deaths reported.

Although weekly deaths met the original goal to stop posting, I'm continuing to post now that deaths are above the goal again.  

Weekly deaths are almost quadruple the low of 302 in early June but are now declining and will likely continue to decline based on wastewater sampling.

And here is a graph I'm following concerning COVID in wastewater as of October 10th:

This appears to be a leading indicator for COVID hospitalizations and deaths.

COVID in wastewater is declining - now about double the lows of last May - suggesting weekly deaths will continue to decline.