by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 04:39:00 PM

I'm gathering existing home data for many local markets, and I'm watching inventory very closely this year.

As I noted in Some thoughts on Housing Inventory

The key for housing in 2021 will be inventory. If inventory stays extremely low, there will be more housing starts and a larger increase in house prices. However, if inventory increases significantly, there will be fewer starts and less price appreciation.

The table below shows some data for May.

Although inventory in these areas is down about 54% year-over-year, inventory is mostly unchanged month-to-month.  Seasonally we'd usually expect an increase in inventory from April to May.   

It does appear inventory bottomed seasonally in March.

Note: California reported a 6.6% increase in active inventory from April to May, but they don't report the actual numbers - so California isn't include in the table below.

Existing Home Inventory
	May-21	Apr-21	May-20	YoY	MoM
Alabama	9,363	9,582	17,042	-45.1%	-2.3%
Atlanta	7,530	6,964	19,352	-61.1%	8.1%
Boston	3,418	3,788	4,250	-19.6%	-9.8%
Charlotte	3104	3,018	8,177	-62.0%	2.8%
Colorado	7,034	7,872	23,060	-69.5%	-10.6%
Denver	2,075	2,594	7,170	-71.1%	-20.0%
Houston	22,607	22,794	38,048	-40.6%	-0.8%
Las Vegas	2560	2,346	7,567	-66.2%	9.1%
Maryland	7,490	7,167	17,254	-56.6%	4.5%
Minnesota	8,953	9,020	18,074	-50.5%	-0.7%
New Hampshire	1,959	1,852	4,331	-54.8%	5.8%
North Texas	8,126	8,084	21,610	-62.4%	0.5%
Northwest	5,533	5,616	10,357	-46.6%	-1.5%
Phoenix	5218	4541	11,418	-54.3%	14.9%
Portland	2,339	2,222	4,551	-48.6%	5.3%
Rhode Island	1,143	1,520	3,036	-62.4%	-24.8%
South Carolina	11,278	11,237	24,878	-54.7%	0.4%
Total1	96,377	96,386	208,127	-53.7%	0.0%
1excluding Denver (included in Colorado)

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 03:39:00 PM

Congratulations to the residents of Illinois on joining the 70% club! Go for 80%!!!

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 314,969,386, as of yesterday 312,915,170. Daily: 2.05 million.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	65.0%	64.7%	64.0%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	147.8	146.5	141.6	≥1601
New Cases per Day3	11,717	12,223	14,420	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	13,826	14,015	16,142	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	282	279	360	≤502
1 America's Goal by July 4th, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

KUDOS to the residents of the 15 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, California, New Hampshire, Maryland, Washington, New York, Illinois and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Virginia at 69.5%, Minnesota at 68.9%, Delaware at 68.6%, Colorado at 68.3%, Oregon at 68.3% and Wisconsin at 64.3%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 01:45:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. 

For for the entire state of Rhode Island:

Closed sales (single family and condos) in May 2021 were 1,081, up 21.4% from 890 in May 2020.

Active Listings (single family and condos) in May 2021 were 1,143, down 62.4% from 3,036 in May 2020.

Inventory in May was down 25% from last month.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 10:48:00 AM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 10.3% compared to the same week in 2019. Leisure (weekend) occupancy has recovered, but weekday (more business) is still down double digits.

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Occupancy at Highest Weekly Level Since November 2019

U.S. hotel occupancy reached its highest weekly level since early November 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through June 12.

June 6-12, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 66.0% (-10.3%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$125.16 (-7.0%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$82.65 (-16.6%)

While weekday occupancy was still down double digits from the corresponding days in 2019, weekend occupancy was 0.2% (Friday) and 3.2% (Saturday) higher than the 2019 comparables. On a total-room-inventory basis, which includes those hotels temporarily closed due to the pandemic, total week occupancy was higher than 60% for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. ADR and RevPAR were also the highest of the pandemic era on an absolute basis.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is now above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 10:30:00 AM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"):

1) Overall sales were at 9,127 in May, up 33.0% from 6,860 in May 2020.

2) Active inventory was at 5,218, down 54.3% from 11,418 in May 2020.

3) Months of supply decreased to 1.05 in May from 2.46 in May 2020. This is very low.

Inventory in May was up 14.9% from last month.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2021 08:37:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending June 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 376,000 to 375,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 225,500. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 402,500 to 403,000.
emphasis added

This does not include the 118,025 initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that was up from 71,303 the previous week.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 395,000.

The previous week was revised down.

Regular state continued claims increased to 3,518,000 (SA) from 3,517,000 (SA) the previous week.

Note: There are an additional 6,120,596 receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) that decreased from 6,374,514 the previous week (there are questions about these numbers). This is a special program for business owners, self-employed, independent contractors or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.  And an additional 5,157,445 receiving Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) down from 5,231,952.

Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2021 08:55:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 365 thousand from 376 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 31.0, down from 31.5.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2021 04:09:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April and May 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. 

For the entire state of Alabama:

Closed sales in May 2021 were 6,936, up 27.6% from 5,434 in May 2020.

Active Listings in May 2021 were 9,363, down 45.1% from 17,042 in May 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.3 Months in May 2021, compared to 3.1 Months in May 2020.

Inventory in May was down 2.3% from last month.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2021 04:01:00 PM

From NBC: Virtually all hospitalized Covid patients have one thing in common: They're unvaccinated

From MarketWatch: CDC says Delta COVID variant is ‘of concern,’ as experts warn of higher risks of infection and serious illness

The good news is the vaccines are very effective against the Delta variant for the fully vaccinated. The bad news - for the unvaccinated - is that the Delta variant is much more contagious than the previous variants, and also appears to be more virulent. Since it takes 5 to 6 week to become fully vaccinated, the unvaccinated should get their first shot now!

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 312,915,170, as of yesterday 311,886,674. Daily: 1.03 million.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	64.7%	64.6%	63.9%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	146.5	145.8	141.0	≥1601
New Cases per Day3	12,415	12,676	14,142	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	14,015	14,232	16,532	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	285	288	380	≤502
1 America's Goal by July 4th, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

KUDOS to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have already achieved the 70% goal: Vermont, Hawaii and Massachusetts are at 80%+, and Connecticut, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, California, New Hampshire, Maryland, Washington, New York and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Illinois at 69.7%, Virginia at 69.5%, Minnesota at 68.8%, Delaware at 68.4%, Colorado at 68.2%, Oregon at 68.2% and Wisconsin at 64.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2021 02:12:00 PM

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections. In March, most participants expected rates to remain at the current level through 2023. Now, most participants expect around two rates hikes in 2023.

Note that real GDP increased 6.4% annualized in Q1.   And forecasts are for GDP to increase close to 10% in Q2 and Q3.

So GDP was revised up for 2021.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2021	2022	2023
June 2021	6.8 to 7.3	2.8 to 3.8	2.0 to 2.5
Mar 2021	5.8 to 6.6	3.0 to 3.8	2.0 to 2.5

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 5.8% in May.

As people reenter the labor force - pushing up the participation rate - the improvement in the unemployment rate will likely slow.

The unemployment rate was revised up slightly for 2021.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2021	2022	2023
June 2021	4.4 to 4.8	3.5 to 4.0	3.2 to 3.8
Mar 2021	4.2 to 4.7	3.6 to 4.0	3.2 to 3.8

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of April 2021, PCE inflation was up 3.6% from April 2020. There was some base effect (since PCE inflation declined last year in the early months of the pandemic), but there was a clear pickup in inflation.

The projections for inflation were revised up and the FOMC sees inflation solidly above target in 2021.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2021	2022	2023
June 2021	3.1 to 3.5	1.9 to 2.3	2.0 to 2.2
Mar 2021	2.2 to 2.4	1.8 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation was up 3.1% in April year-over-year.

Projections for core inflation were revised up.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2021	2022	2023
June 2021	2.9 to 3.1	1.9 to 2.3	2.0 to 2.2
Mar 2021	2.0 to 2.3	1.9 to 2.1	2.0 to 2.2