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Friday, June 04, 2021

May Employment Report: 559 Thousand Jobs, 5.8% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2021 08:41:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 559,000 in May, and the unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 5.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, in public and private education, and in health care and social assistance.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised up by 15,000, from +770,000 to +785,000, and the change for April was revised up by 12,000, from +266,000 to +278,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 27,000 higher than previously reported.
emphasis added
Year-over-year change employmentClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In May, the year-over-year change was 11.900 million jobs.  This was up significantly - since employment collapsed in April 2020.

Total payrolls increased by 559 thousand in May.  Private payrolls increased by 492 thousand.

Payrolls for March and April were revised up 27 thousand, combined.

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job ChartThe second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, but currently is not as severe as the worst of the "Great Recession".

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment rates The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 61.6% in May, from 61.7% in April. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.0% from 57.9% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate decreased in May to 5.8% from 6.1% in April.

This was below consensus expectations, however March and April were revised up by 27,000 combined.

I'll have more later ...