by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 05:59:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. 

For for the entire state Indiana:

Closed sales in April 2021 were 7,757, up 16.6% from 6,652 in April 2020.

Active Listings in April 2021 were 6,253, down 53.1% from 13,332 in April 2020.

Months of Supply was 0.8 Months in April 2021, compared to 1.8 Months in April 2020.

Inventory in April was up 6.0% from last month.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 04:42:00 PM

Hopefully everyone is part of the solution and is getting vaccinated!

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 277,290,173, as of yesterday 275,535,207. Day: 1.75 million.  (U.S. Capacity is around 4 million per day)

 
1) 60.2% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (70% goal by July 4th).
2) 125.5 million Americans are fully vaccinated (160 million goal by July 4th)

Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all four of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000, and
4) average daily deaths under 50 (currently 567 per day).

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Over 10,500 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 29,526, down from 30,558 yesterday, and down sharply from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since June 21, 2020.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 26,415, down from 27,027 reported yesterday, and still above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 02:04:00 PM

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, April 27–28, 2021. A few excerpts:

In their comments about inflation, participants anticipated that inflation as measured by the 12-month change of the PCE price index would move above 2 percent in the near term as very low readings from early in the pandemic fall out of the calculation. In addition, increases in oil prices were expected to pass through to consumer energy prices. Participants also noted that the expected surge in demand as the economy reopens further, along with some transitory supply chain bottlenecks, would contribute to PCE price inflation temporarily running somewhat above 2 percent. After the transitory effects of these factors fade, participants generally expected measured inflation to ease. Looking further ahead, participants expected inflation to be at levels consistent with achieving the Committee's objectives over time. A number of participants remarked that supply chain bottlenecks and input shortages may not be resolved quickly and, if so, these factors could put upward pressure on prices beyond this year. They noted that in some industries, supply chain disruptions appeared to be more persistent than originally anticipated and reportedly had led to higher input costs. Despite the expected short-run fluctuations in measured inflation, many participants commented that various measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored at levels broadly consistent with achieving the Committee's longer-run goals.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 01:08:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

While single-family home prices have recently soared and single-family rents appear to have accelerated, the “Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence” index (OERPR) of the Consumer Price Index has shown no meaningful acceleration. The YOY gain in the OERPR in April was just 2.04%, about the same as in the previous three months.

The OERPR index attempts to measure what property owners would receive if they were to rent their home. While the “Rent of primary residence” index mainly (though not solely) reflects rents on multifamily properties, the OERPR index mainly (though not solely) reflects “imputed” rents on single-family homes. There are many issues with how the OERPR in calculated (there is an extensive literature on the subject), and many feel that that it is a lagging indicator of trends. However, it would appear as if (1) the OERPR is understating this measure of housing costs; and (2) the measure is likely to accelerate, probably significantly, during the remainder of the year.

The OERPR represents a little over 23% of the overall CPI and a little underx. 14% of the PCE price index.

CR Note: This will be something to watch.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 12:04:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.96 million in April, down 0.8% from March’s preliminary pace but up 36.4% from last April’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor reports, as well as reports from national inventory trackers, suggest that the YOY decline in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was similar to the big drop in March.

Finally, local realtor/MLS data suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 18% from last April.

CR Note: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Friday, May 21, 2021 at 10:00 AM ET. The consensus is for 6.09 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 10:03:00 AM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Design activity strongly increases

Continuing its meteoric rebound, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) recorded its third consecutive month of positive billings, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

AIA’s ABI score for April rose to 57.9 compared to 55.6 in March (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Neither score has been achieved since before the Great Recession. During April, new project inquiries and new design contracts reached record highs with scores of 70.8 and 61.7 respectively.

“This recent acceleration in the demand for design services demonstrates that both consumers and businesses are feeling much more confident about the economic outlook,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “The pent-up demand for new and retrofitted facilities is keeping architecture firms in all regions and building sectors busy.”
...
• Regional averages: Midwest (60.6); South (58.3); Northeast (55.0); West (52.4)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (59.1); multi-family residential (56.9); institutional (56.7); mixed practice (55.0)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 57.9 in April, up from 55.6 in March. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last three months.  

The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 (This usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months), however we might see a pickup in CRE investment towards the end of the 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 14, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased last week, with all loan types hitting their highest levels in two weeks. Rates were still lower than levels reported in late March and early April, providing additional opportunity for borrowers to refinance. Despite the 30-year fixed rate rising to 3.15 percent, applications for conventional and VA refinances increased. Ongoing volatility in refinance applications is likely if rates continue to oscillate around current levels,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “A decline in purchase applications was seen for both conventional and government loans. There continues to be strong demand for buying a home, but persistent supply shortages are constraining purchase activity, and building material shortages and higher costs are making it more difficult to increase supply. As a result, home prices and average purchase loan balances continue to rise, with the average purchase application reaching $411,400 – the highest since February.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.15 percent from 3.11 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. T
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With low rates, the index remains elevated, but below recent levels since mortgage rates have moved up from the record lows.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 2% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: The year ago comparisons for the unadjusted purchase index will be more difficult going forward since purchase activity picked up in late May 2020.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2021 09:11:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of April 27-28, 2021

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2021 04:10:00 PM

Hopefully everyone is part of the solution and is getting vaccinated!

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations. Total administered: 275,535,207, as of yesterday 274,411,901. Day: 1.12 million.  (U.S. Capacity is around 4 million per day)

 
1) 60.0% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose (70% goal by July 4th).
2) 124.5 million Americans are fully vaccinated (160 million goal by July 4th)

Note: I'll stop posting this daily once all four of these criteria are met:
1) 70% of the population over 18 has had at least one dose of vaccine, and
2) new cases are under 5,000 per day, and
3) hospitalizations are below 3,000, and
4) average daily deaths under 50 (currently 558 per day).

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. 

Almost 10,000 US deaths were reported so far in May due to COVID.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

This data is from the CDC.

The 7-day average is 30,397, down from 30,827 yesterday, and down sharply from the recent peak of 69,881 on April 13, 2021. This is the lowest since June 22, 2020.

The second graph shows the number of people hospitalized.

This data is also from the CDC.

The CDC cautions that due to reporting delays, the area in grey will probably increase.

The current 7-day average is 27,027, up from 26,726 reported yesterday, and still above the post-summer surge low of 23,000.

by Calculated Risk on 5/18/2021 01:04:00 PM

Note: I'm tracking data for many local markets around the U.S. I think it is especially important to watch inventory this year.  Remember sales were weak in April 2020 due to the pandemic, so the YoY sales comparison is easy. 

For the entire state of Alabama:

Closed sales in April 2021 were 7,068, up 33.4% from 5,300 in April 2020.

Active Listings in April 2021 were 9,582, down 46.6% from 17,956 in April 2020.

Months of Supply was 1.4 Months in April 2021, compared to 3.4 Months in April 2020.

Inventory in April was down 1.4% from last month.