by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 06:36:00 PM

From Bloomberg on vaccinations as of Feb 3rd.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 32.7 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.34 million doses per day were administered."

Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.

The US is now averaging close to 1.5 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,442,998 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 116,960 positive tests.

Almost 9,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.1%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

It seems likely cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 03:42:00 PM

The bounce back in gasoline prices made me take another look at the mix of vehicles being sold.

This graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs through January 2021.

Click on graph for larger image.

Over time the mix has changed more and more towards light trucks and SUVs.

Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse.

The percent of light trucks and SUVs was at 77.7% in January 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 11:48:00 AM

The BEA released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January this morning. The BEA estimates sales of 16.63 million SAAR in January 2021 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 2.5% from the December sales rate, and down 1.5% from January 2020.

This was above the consensus estimate of 16.3 million SAAR.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and the BEA's estimate for January (red).

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April was the worst month.

Since April, sales have increased, but are still down  year-over-year,

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.63 million SAAR.

This was the highest sales rate since before the start of the pandemic, and a solid start for 2021 (although down year-over-year).

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 10:05:00 AM

The December ISM Services index was at 58.7%, up from 57.7% last month. The employment index increased to 55.2%, from 48.7%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 58.7%; January 2021 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Economic activity in the services sector grew in January for the eighth month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: "The Services PMI® registered 58.7 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 57.7 percent. This reading is the highest since February 2019 (58.8 percent) and indicates the eighth straight month of growth for the services sector, which has expanded for all but two of the last 132 months.
emphasis added

This was above expectations, and solid improvement for the employment index.

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 08:18:00 AM

From ADP:

Private sector employment increased by 174,000 jobs from December to January according to the January according to the December ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

“The labor market continues its slow recovery amid COVID-19 headwinds,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Although job losses were previously concentrated among small and midsized businesses, we are now seeing signs of the prolonged impact of the pandemic on large companies as well.”
emphasis added

This was well above the consensus forecast of 45,000 for this report.

The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 50 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in January. Of course the ADP report has not been very useful in predicting the BLS report.

by Calculated Risk on 2/03/2021 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 8.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 29, 2021.

... The Refinance Index increased 11 percent from the previous week and was 59 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“After increasing for three consecutive weeks, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped 3 basis points to 2.92 percent. The one-week reversal in the recent upswing in rates drove an increase in both conventional and government refinance activity, as borrowers continue to lock in these historically low rates. MBA’s refinance index hit its highest level since March 2020 and jumped 60 percent year-overyear,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity was unchanged last week, with a 1 percent increase in conventional applications offset by a 3 percent decline in government applications. Average purchase loan amounts in early 2021 continue to rise across all loan types, driven by a strong pace of home sales, tight housing inventory and high homeprice growth. Conventional, FHA and VA purchase loan sizes all set new survey records last week.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($510,400 or less) decreased to 2.92 percent from 2.95 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has been volatile recently depending on rates.

With near record low rates, the index remains up significantly from last year.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 16% year-over-year unadjusted.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2021 09:12:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 45,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 123,000 lost in December.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2021 06:46:00 PM

Note: Bloomberg has great data on vaccinations.

"In the U.S., more Americans have now received at least one dose than have tested positive for the virus since the pandemic began. So far, 33.7 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally. In the last week, an average of 1.32 million doses per day were administered."

Also check out the graphs at COVID-19 Vaccine Projections The site has several interactive graphs related to US COVID vaccinations including a breakdown of how many have had one shot, and how many have had both shots.

The US is now averaging close to 2 million tests per day. Based on the experience of other countries, for adequate test-and-trace (and isolation) to reduce infections, the percent positive needs to be under 5% (probably close to 1%), so the US has far too many daily cases - and percent positive - to do effective test-and-trace.

There were 1,375,084 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 115,619 positive tests.

Over 5,000 US deaths have been reported in February. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

And check out COVID Act Now to see how each state is doing. (updated link to new site)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the 7 day average of positive tests reported and daily hospitalizations.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 8.4%.  The percent positive is calculated by dividing positive results by total tests (including pending).

It seems likely cases and hospitalizations have peaked, but are declining from a very high level.   

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2021 01:52:00 PM

From the U.S. Courts: Annual Bankruptcy Filings Fall 29.7 Percent

Bankruptcy filings fell sharply for the 12-month period ending Dec. 31, 2020, despite a significant surge in unemployment related to the coronavirus (COVID-19).

Annual bankruptcy filings in calendar year 2020 totaled 544,463, compared with 774,940 cases in 2019, according to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. That is a decrease of 29.7 percent.

Only one category saw an increase in filings. Chapter 11 reorganizations rose 19.2 percent, from 6,808 in 2019 to 8,113 in 2020. Of those, 7,561 involved business reorganizations.

The number of total filings was the lowest since 1986, when 530,438 bankruptcies were filed. Filings fell sharply in the early months of the pandemic, starting in March 2020, when many courts offered limited access to the public. In addition, bankruptcy filings can lag behind other economic indicators. Following the Great Recession, which began in 2007, new filings escalated until they peaked in 2010.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 2001.

The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". (a good example of Orwellian named legislation since this was more a "Lender Protection Act").

Due to the pandemic, bankruptcy filings fell sharply in 2020 to the lowest level since 1986. It is likely that bankruptcy filings will increase in 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 2/02/2021 01:17:00 PM

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.  

This graph shows CME framing futures through Feb 2nd.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This is up 93% year-over-year - Almost double.

There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

Clearly there is another surge in demand for lumber.