by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2020 10:11:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 901 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in July 2020 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 901,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.9 percent above the revised June rate of 791,000 and is 36.3 percent above the July 2019 estimate of 661,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

This is the highest sales rate since 2007.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in July to 4.0 months from 5.5 months in June.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 299,000. This represents a supply of 4.0 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still somewhat low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is close to normal.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In July 2020 (red column), 78 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 55 thousand homes were sold in July.

The all time high for July was 117 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for July was 26 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations of 786 thousand sales SAAR, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2020 09:14:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3 month average of April, May and June prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 4.3% Annual Home Price Gain in June

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.3% annual gain in June, no change from the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.8%, down from 3.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 3.5% year-over-year gain, down from 3.6% in the previous month.

Phoenix, Seattle and Tampa continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in June. Phoenix led the way with a 9.0% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 6.5% increase and Tampa with a 5.9% increase. Five of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2020 versus the year ending May 2020.
...
The National Index posted a 0.6% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted increases of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively before seasonal adjustment in June. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, while the 10- City Composite posted a decrease of 0.1% and the 20-City Composite did not post any gains. In June, 16 of 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, while 12 of the 19 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment.

“Housing prices were stable in June,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index rose by 4.3% in June 2020, as it had also done in May (June’s growth was slightly lower in the 10- and 20-City Composites, which were up 2.8% and 3.5%, respectively). More data will be required to understand whether the market resumes its previous path of accelerating prices, continues to decelerate, or remains stable. That said, it’s important to bear in mind that deceleration is quite different from an environment in which prices actually fall.

“June’s gains were quite broad-based. Prices increased in all 19 cities for which we have data, accelerating in five of them. Phoenix retains the top spot for the 13th consecutive month, with a gain of 9.0% for June. Home prices in Seattle rose by 6.5%, followed by Tampa at 5.9% and Charlotte at 5.7%. As has been the case for the last several months, prices were particularly strong in the Southeast and West, and comparatively weak in the Midwest and (especially) Northeast.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is up 4.1% from the bubble peak, and declined 0.1% in June (SA) from May.

The Composite 20 index is 8.3% above the bubble peak, and unchanged (SA) in June.

The National index is 18.1% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.2% (SA) in June.  The National index is up 60% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 2.8% compared to June 2019.  The Composite 20 SA is up 3.5% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 4.3% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 12 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

Price increases were slightly below expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 08:51:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. The consensus is for a 3.6% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for June.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for June 2019. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for July from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for 786 thousand SAAR, down from 776 thousand in June.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 07:17:00 PM

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day (fewer recently). Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 682,054 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 35,036 positive tests.

There have been 23,806 COVID reported deaths in the first 24 days of August. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 5.1% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 04:00:00 PM

Note: This is as of August 16th.

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Declines Slightly to 7.20%

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest Forbearance and Call Volume Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 7.21% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior week to 7.20% as of August 16, 2020. According to MBA’s estimate, 3.6 million homeowners are in forbearance plans.
...
“The share of loans in forbearance declined for the tenth week in a row, but the rate of improvement has slowed markedly. The extremely high rate of initial claims for unemployment insurance and high level of unemployment remain a concern, and are indications of the challenges many households are facing,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “While new forbearance requests remain low, particularly for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans, the pace of exits from forbearance has declined for two straight weeks.”

By stage, 37.91% of total loans in forbearance are in the initial forbearance plan stage, while 61.34% are in a forbearance extension. The remaining 0.75% are forbearance re-entries.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of portfolio in forbearance by investor type over time.  Most of the increase was in late March and early April, and has been trending down for the last ten weeks.

The MBA notes: "Weekly forbearance requests as a percent of servicing portfolio volume (#) decreased to 0.10 percent from 0.11 percent the previous week."

There hasn't been a pickup in forbearance activity related to the end of the extra unemployment benefits.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 10:12:00 AM

From the NMHC: NMHC Rent Payment Tracker Finds 90 Percent of Apartment Households Paid Rent as of August 20

The National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC)’s Rent Payment Tracker found 90 percent of apartment households made a full or partial rent payment by August 20 in its survey of 11.4 million units of professionally managed apartment units across the country.

This is a 2.1-percentage point, or 237,056 -household decrease from the share who paid rent through August 20, 2019 and compares to 91.3 percent that had paid by July 20, 2020. These data encompass a wide variety of market-rate rental properties across the United States, which can vary by size, type and average rental price.

“Lawmakers in Congress and the Administration need to come back to the table and work together on comprehensive legislation that protects and supports tens of millions of American renters by extending unemployment benefits and providing desperately needed rental assistance,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “The industry remains encouraged by the degree residents have prioritized their housing obligations so far, but each passing day means more distress for individuals and families, and greater risk for the nation’s housing sector. If policymakers want to prevent a health and economic crisis from quickly evolving into a housing crisis, they should act quickly to extend financial assistance to renters.”
emphasis added

CR Note: This is mostly for large, professionally managed properties.  It appears fewer people are paying their rent this year compared to last year - down 2.1 percentage points from a year ago - and also down 1.3 percentage points compared to last month (July 2020).   This hasn't fallen off a cliff - yet. 

People were still receiving the extra unemployment benefits for most of July, and were able to make their August rent payment.  Without additional disaster relief, I expect more people will miss their September rent payment.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 10:00:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index of other data.

From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July

Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from –2.78 in June.
emphasis added

This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.

Click on graph for larger image.

According to the Chicago Fed:

The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 08:22:00 AM

These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment - some of the sectors that will recover very slowly.

----- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -----
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the seven day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).

This data is as of August 23rd.

The seven day average is down 70% from last year.  There had been a slow steady increase from the bottom, but air travel is just creeping up over the last several weeks.


----- Restaurants: OpenTable -----
The second graph shows the 7 day average of the year-over-year change in diners as tabulated by OpenTable for the US and several selected cities.

Thanks to OpenTable for providing this restaurant data:

This data is updated through Aug 22, 2020.

This data is "a sample of restaurants on the OpenTable network across all channels: online reservations, phone reservations, and walk-ins. For year-over-year comparisons by day, we compare to the same day of the week from the same week in the previous year."

Note that this data is for "only the restaurants that have chosen to reopen in a given market". Since some restaurants have not reopened, the actual year-over-year decline is worse than shown.

The 7 day average for New York is still off 65% YoY, and down 44% in Texas.

It appears dining is increasing again, probably mostly outdoor dining.

----- Movie Tickets: Box Office Mojo -----
This data shows domestic box office for each week (red) and the maximum and minimum for the previous four years.  Data is from BoxOfficeMojo through August 20th.

Note that the data is usually noisy week-to-week and depends on when blockbusters are released.

Movie ticket sales have picked up over the last two weeks, and were over $2 million last week (compared to usually around $300 million per week).

Most movie theaters are still closed, but a few seem to be reopening (probably with limited seating at first).

----- Hotel Occupancy: STR -----
This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

This data is through August 15th.

COVID-19 crushed hotel occupancy, however the occupancy rate has increased in 17 of the last 18 weeks, and is currently down 30% year-over-year.

Notes: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

Usually hotel occupancy starts to pick up seasonally in early June and declines toward the end of summer. So some of the recent pickup might be seasonal (summer travel). The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August (right now), and the occupancy rate typically declines sharply in the Fall.

With so many schools closed, the leisure travel season might be lasting longer this year than usual.

----- Gasoline Consumption: Energy Information Administration -----
This graph, based on weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), shows gasoline consumption compared to the same week last year of .

At one point, gasoline consumption was off almost 50% YoY.

As of August 14th, gasoline consumption was only off about 10% YoY (about 90% of normal).

Note: I know several people that have driven to vacation spots - or to visit family - and they usually would have flown.   So this might be boosting gasoline consumption over the summer.

----- Transit: Apple Mobility -----
This graph is from Apple mobility. From Apple: "This data is generated by counting the number of requests made to Apple Maps for directions in select countries/regions, sub-regions, and cities." This is just a general guide - people that regularly commute probably don't ask for directions.

There is also some great data on mobility from the Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index. However the index is set "relative to its weekday-specific average over January–February", and is not seasonally adjusted, so we can't tell if an increase in mobility is due to recovery or just the normal increase in the Spring and Summer.

This data is through August 22nd for the United States and several selected cities.

The graph is the running 7 day average to remove the impact of weekends.

IMPORTANT: All data is relative to January 13, 2020. This data is NOT Seasonally Adjusted. People walk and drive more when the weather is nice, so I'm just using the transit data.

According to the Apple data directions requests, public transit in the 7 day average for the US is still only about 56% of the January level. It is at 48% in Los Angeles, and 56% in Houston.

----- New York City Subway Usage -----
Here is some interesting data on New York subway usage (HT BR).

This graph is from Todd W Schneider.

This data is through Friday, August 21st.

Schneider has graphs for each borough, and links to all the data sources.

He notes: "Data updates weekly from the MTA’s public turnstile data, usually on Saturday mornings"

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2020 10:32:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of August 23, 2020

• The Failed Promises of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA)

• Q3 GDP Forecasts

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July. This is a composite index of other data.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 9 and DOW futures are up 80 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $42.34 per barrel and Brent at $44.35 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $54, and Brent was at $59 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.18 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.58 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.40 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/23/2020 06:24:00 PM

The US is now mostly reporting over 700,000 tests per day (fewer recently). Based on the experience of other countries, the percent positive needs to be well under 5% to really push down new infections, so the US still needs to increase the number of tests per day significantly (or take actions to push down the number of new infections).

There were 611,382 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

There were 38,234 positive tests.

There have been 23,458 COVID reported deaths in the first 23 days of August. See the graph on US Daily Deaths here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 6.3% (red line).

For the status of contact tracing by state, check out testandtrace.com.

And check out COVID Exit Strategy to see how each state is doing.