by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 10:00:00 AM
Monday, August 24, 2020
Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July"
Note: This is a composite index of other data.
From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July
Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from –2.78 in June.This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.
emphasis added
According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
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A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.