Monday, August 24, 2020

Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July"

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2020 10:00:00 AM

Note: This is a composite index of other data.

From the Chicago Fed: Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July

Led by some moderation in the growth of production- and employment-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +1.18 in July from +5.33 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, but all four categories decreased from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +3.59 in July from –2.78 in June.
emphasis added
This graph from the Chicago Fed shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index by category.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image.

According to the Chicago Fed:
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.
...
A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.