by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2020 05:21:00 PM

Note: the large increase Saturday in test results reported was due to California working through the backlog of pending tests.

Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some scientists believe we need around 800,000 tests per day.

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I'm no longer including pending tests.  So this is just test results reported daily.

There were 155,063 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 19% (red line).  The US needs enough tests to push  the percentage below 5% (probably much lower).

Test. Test. Test. Protect healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2020 01:53:00 PM

The following graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2020 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.  Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all time high of 575 thousand SAAR in September 2019.


Click on graph for larger image.

However heavy truck sales started declining late last year due to lower oil prices.

And then heavy truck sales really declined at the end of March due to COVID-19 and the collapse in oil prices.

Heavy truck sales were at 291 thousand SAAR in March, down from 453 thousand SAAR in February, and down 43% from 514 thousand SAAR in March 2019.

Heavy truck sales in April will likely be below the low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009, and probably below the record low of 159 thousand SAAR in 1982.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2020 10:49:00 AM

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. (ht @conorsen)

This is another measure that will be useful to track when the economy starts to reopen.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data shows the daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Blue) and 2020 (Red).

On April 5th there were 122,029 travelers compared to 2,462,929 a year ago.

That is a decline of 95%.

by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2020 09:24:00 AM

Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices declined sharply from the record highs in early 2018, and then increased until the COVID-19 crisis.

This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through Apr 3, 2020 (via NAHB), and 2) CME framing futures.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Right now Random Lengths prices are unchanged from a year ago, and CME futures are down 25% year-over-year.

There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability.

The trade war led to significant volatility in lumber prices in 2018.   Prices have fallen sharply due to COVID-19 (Note: Construction is considered an essential activity is ongoing in many areas)

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2020 06:49:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 5, 2020

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 37 and DOW futures are up 275 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $26.19 per barrel and Brent at $31.97 barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $63, and Brent was at $70 - so oil prices are down by more than 50% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $1.92 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.73 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down 81 cents per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2020 05:09:00 PM

Note: the large increase yesterday in test results reported was due to California working through the backlog of pending tests.

Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some scientists believe we need around 800,000 tests per day.

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I'm no longer including pending tests.  So this is just test results reported daily.

There were 138,243 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 19% (red line).  The US needs enough tests to push  the percentage below 5% (probably much lower).

Test. Test. Test. Protect healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2020 05:59:00 PM

From the LA Times: Gov. Gavin Newsom said he ‘owns’ coronavirus testing lapses, announces task force

In a Saturday news conference, Newsom announced a task force that he said will work toward a fivefold increase in daily testing in the state by identifying supply shortages and adding testing locations.

The announcement comes as California continues to see dramatic increases in people hospitalized with the virus, with 2,300 patients in the state. Another 3,267 people hospitalized are suspected of having COVID-19, but are awaiting testing results.

Overnight, the number of coronavirus patients in California’s intensive care unit beds rose nearly 11% to 1,008 people.

In all, Newsom said 126,700 people have been tested in California, a state of nearly 40 million people. Of those who have been tested, 13,000 are awaiting results.

Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.  Some scientists believe we need around 800,000 tests per day.

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I'm no longer including pending tests.  So this is just test results reported daily.

There were 216,463 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 16% (red line).  The US needs enough tests to push  the percentage below 5%.

Test. Test. Test. Protect healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the March CPI.

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday might be interesting.

----- Monday, Apr 6th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, Apr 7th -----
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for February from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in January to 6.963 million from 6.552 million in December.

The number of job openings (yellow) were down 7% year-over-year, and Quits were up slightly year-over-year.

10:00 AM: Corelogic House Price index for February.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit from the Federal Reserve.

----- Wednesday, Apr 8th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of March 15, 2020

----- Thursday, Apr 9th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 5.000 million initial claims, down from 6.648 million the previous week.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in PPI, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for April).

----- Friday, Apr 10th -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for March from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% decrease in CPI, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

The NYSE and the NASDAQ will be closed for Good Friday.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2020 05:02:00 PM

Germany is conducting 50,000 tests per day, and scientists are advising Germany to increase testing to 200,000 per day.

The population of Germany is 83 million, about one-fourth of the US. To match Germany's current testing level, the US needs 200,000 tests per day, and the US needs four times that many based on the advice of some scientists.

The US testing shortfall continues. We need someone in charge resolving any bottleneck issues - PPE, manpower, swabs, reagents - whatever the issue, someone needs to be fixing it.

Test-and-trace is a key criteria in starting to reopen the country.   My current guess is test-and-trace will require around 300,000 tests per day at first since the US is far behind the curve.

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I'm no longer including pending tests.  So this is just test results reported daily.

There were 139,613 test results reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 24% (red line).  The US needs enough tests to push  the percentage below 5%.

Test. Test. Test. Protect healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2020 03:31:00 PM

Note: The graphs are six week averages, and the economy was very different at the end of March - so next month we will see a sharp decline in traffic due to COVID-19.

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.

A confluence of factors caused weekly average U.S. rail carloads in March 2020 to fall to their lowest level since sometime before January 1988, when our data begin. Total U.S. carloads in March 2020 were down 6.0% from March 2019 and down 3.0% from February 2020. Meanwhile, U.S. intermodal volume in March 2020 was down 12.2% from March 2019 (its biggest year-over-year percentage decline since September 2009) and down 6.3% from February 2020.

The clearest example so far of the impact of the coronavirus on rail volumes involves autos and auto parts: combined U.S., Canadian, and Mexican carloads were 25,518 in the third week of March, but only 9,745 carloads — a 62% decline — the following week, thanks to widespread auto plant shutdowns. Intermodal also suffered from fewer containers of auto parts.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six week average of U.S. Carloads in 2018, 2019 and 2020:

The U.S. economy in the last week of March was very different from what it was in the first week of March. It’s the same with some rail commodities.

Total originated carloads on U.S. railroads in March 2020 were 57,148 carloads, or 6.0%, lower than in March 2019. That’s their 14th consecutive year-overyear decline. Total carloads averaged 224,918 per week in March 2020, supplanting February 2020 as the lowest-volume month since sometime prior to January 1988, when our data begin.

The second graph shows the six week average of U.S. intermodal in 2018, 2019 and 2020: (using intermodal or shipping containers):

U.S. intermodal originations fell 12.2% in March 2020 from March 2019, their biggest year-over- year percentage decline since September 2009. Weekly average intermodal volume in March 2020 (233,845 units) was the lowest for March since 2013. What happens at Western ports will have a big impact on intermodal. Some say China is returning to normal, removing a supply shock that reduced sailings to the U.S and related intermodal shipments. However, some analysts fear that a demand shock is coming as U.S. importers cancel shipments because they don’t think they’ll be able to sell them. The only sure thing is that nobody knows for sure what’s going to happen.