by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2020 05:18:00 PM

It is one thing to finally have the capacity to do test-and-trace (not there yet). But we also need the infrastructure in place.

Questions to ask:

1. Who is in charge of the Test-and-trace taskforce?

2. Do we have the tools ready to go? (Software, database, etc)

3. Do we have the manpower trained? (Not healthcare workers)

4. Do we have tools ready to track those in self quarantine? South Korea calls people twice a day in quarantine to see how they are doing, if they need medical help or food, and to schedule a follow-up test when they are feeling better.

5. Do we have trained manpower to call people twice a day in quarantine?

When I first started posting this data (thanks to the COVID Tracking Project), testing was so low, that just tracking the number of tests made sense.

The percentage positive is also critical. Unfortunately some states and labs don't report all negative tests, although that is supposed to change soon.

The real key is to have enough tests that the US can test all people with symptoms (even mild), all close contacts of those testing positive (aka Test-and-Trace), healthcare workers and first responders fairly regularly (upon request), staff at retirement communities and nursing homes, and those people that regularly visit those facilities (it is a burden on older people not see their families).

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I include all tests in the total including pending.

The percent positive excludes the pending tests.

There were 114,655 tests reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 17%.

Testing must continue to be expanded until the percent positive declines to 5% or lower.   This is based on results from South Korea.

Test. Test. Test.

Note: 44  Medics have died in Italy.   Protect our healthcare workers first (masks, gowns, shields, etc)!

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include January Case-Shiller house prices, the February Trade Deficit and March Auto Sales.

For manufacturing, the March Dallas Fed survey and the ISM Manufacturing survey will be released.

----- Monday, Mar 30th -----
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

----- Tuesday, Mar 31st -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 40.0, down from 49.0 in February.

----- Wednesday, Apr 1st -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 154,000 payroll jobs lost in March, down from 183,000 added in February.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 45.0, down from 50.1 in February.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 50.1% in February, the employment index was at 46.9%, and the new orders index was at 49.8%

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

Late: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 11.9 million SAAR in March, down from 16.8 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

----- Thursday, Apr 2nd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 3.000 million initial claims, down from 3.283 million the previous week.

8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $40.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $45.3 billion in January.

----- Friday, Apr 3rd -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 100,000 jobs lost, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.9%.

There were 273,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In February, the year-over-year change was 2.409 million jobs.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March.   The consensus is for a reading of 48.1, down from 57.3.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2020 05:40:00 PM

When I first started posting this data (thanks to the COVID Tracking Project), testing was so low, that just tracking the number of tests made sense.

The percentage positive is also critical. Unfortunately some states and labs don't report all negative tests, although that is supposed to change soon.

The real key is to have enough tests that the US can test all people with symptoms (even mild), all close contacts of those testing positive (aka Test-and-Trace), healthcare workers and first responders fairly regularly (upon request), staff at retirement communities and nursing homes, and those people that regularly visit those facilities (it is a burden on older people not see their families).

Notes: Data for the previous couple of days is updated and revised, so graphs might change.

Also, I include all tests in the total including pending.

The percent positive excludes the pending tests.

There were 107,172 tests reported over the last 24 hours.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.

The percent positive over the last 24 hours was 17%.

Testing must continue to be expanded until the percent positive declines to 5% or lower.   This is based on results from South Korea.

Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2020 12:02:00 PM

Seasonal flu activity is sharply, and that will help with the rapidly increasing COVID-19 pandemic.

From the CDC: Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report

Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories continues to decrease; however, influenza-like illness activity is increasing. Influenza severity indicators remain moderate to low overall, but hospitalization rates differ by age group, with high rates among children and young adults.
…
Nationally, the percent of laboratory specimens testing positive for influenza at clinical laboratories continued to decrease while ILI activity continued to increase. More people are seeking care for respiratory illness due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Note that ILI (influenza-like illness) activity is increasing due to COVID-19.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the CDC shows the number of positive specimens, and the percent of tests positive.

If we look back at previous reports (for week 12), activity this year is slowing faster than in most previous years. 

Influenza is seasonal, but social distancing is probably helping lower flu activity too.  And fewer patients with the flu is a positive for healthcare workers.

 

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2020 11:47:00 AM

Usually I don't cover the service surveys, but the regional surveys are timely and are showing the sharp decline in activity.

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Services Activity Decreased Significantly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the March Services Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District services activity decreased significantly in March to the lowest level in survey history (since 2014), and firms expected business activity to drop further in the future.

“We saw a significant decrease in regional services activity as businesses were negatively affected by COVID-19, and firms expected more activity to drop off moving forward,” said Wilkerson. “Over 54 percent of firms expected lower levels of employment for 2020 due to COVID-19 and recent market volatility, and nearly 63 percent of contacts were concerned about cash availability.”
…
The month-over-month services composite index was -16 in March, the lowest posting since the survey started in 2014, and down significantly from 6 in February and 14 in January … Expectations for future services activity decreased sharply, and the expected composite index posted the worst change from a month ago in survey history, dropping from 23 to -30.

A few survey comments:

“Currently closed to public, thus no business, which is tolerable in the short-term, but would be problematic long-term.”

“With customers staying at home we have no sales. This may force us to shut down temporarily.”

“We need access to cash fast… business has dropped 95% in the last 4 days.”

“(Business activity) has dropped to basically zero. Until schools reopen we are going to greatly suffer. We have tremendous uncertainty - how long will this last - 1 month - 2 months - 6 months - it will bankrupt us eventually if it is prolonged.”

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2020 10:14:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Unemployment rates were lower in February in 8 states, higher in 1 state, and stable in 41 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 38 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 3.5 percent, was little changed over the month but was 0.3 percentage point lower than in February 2019.
...
North Dakota had the lowest unemployment rate in February, 2.2 percent, while Alaska had the highest rate, 5.8 percent. The rates in Alaska (5.8 percent), Idaho (2.7 percent), Illinois (3.4 percent), New York (3.7 percent), North Dakota (2.2 percent), and Washington (3.8 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976.

At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).

Currently no has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue). Note that this is the first time since the series started in 1976 that Alaska has been below 6%. Three states and the D.C. have unemployment rates above 5%; Alaska, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

A total of fifteen states are at a series low: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Maryland, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington.

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2020 09:09:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:

Personal income increased $106.8 billion (0.6 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $88.7 billion (0.5 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $27.7 billion (0.2 percent).

Real DPI inincreased 0.4 percent in February and Real PCE increased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent

The February PCE price index increased 1.8 percent year-over-year and the February PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.8 percent year-over-year.

The increase in personal income was above expectations,  and the increase in PCE was below expectations.

Note that core PCE inflation was at expectations.

This was prior to the COVID-19 crisis.

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2020 07:50:00 PM

If you want to track the cases (and tests) in your state over time, check out COVID-19 Case Statistics by State. Just click on the state of interest.

Consumer sentiment might be interesting tomorrow. (something I don't watch closely).  Personal income & outlays is for February (pre-crisis).

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 94.0.

• At 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly), February 2020

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2020 05:35:00 PM

Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 to 20,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 130,000 per day.

The US reported 146,044 tests in the last 24 hours.  Some of these were probably late reports.

Note: About 12% of tests were positive in the most recent report (some are still pending).   However in some states, private labs aren't reporting the number of negative results, so this percentage may be high.

It would be helpful if there was a national reporting system for total tests and positive and negative results.  Apparently, new legislation includes this reporting.

Click on graph for larger image.

This data is from the COVID Tracking Project.
States are improving their reporting.

If testing can be maintained at this level, then that might be sufficient for test-and-trace.

Test. Test. Test. But protect our healthcare workers first!

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2020 05:15:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.60%, unchanged from 0.60% in January. Freddie's rate is down from 0.69% in February 2019.

This matches January as the lowest delinquency rate since November 2007.

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Click on graph for larger image

This is close to a cycle bottom.   However, with COVID-19, this rate will probably increase in a few months (it takes time since these are mortgage three months or more past due).

Note: Fannie Mae will report for February soon.