Saturday, March 28, 2020

Schedule for Week of March 29, 2020

by Calculated Risk on 3/28/2020 08:11:00 AM

The key report scheduled for this week is the March employment report on Friday.

Other key reports include January Case-Shiller house prices, the February Trade Deficit and March Auto Sales.

For manufacturing, the March Dallas Fed survey and the ISM Manufacturing survey will be released.

----- Monday, Mar 30th -----

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March. This is the last of the regional surveys for March.

----- Tuesday, Mar 31st -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 3.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 40.0, down from 49.0 in February.

----- Wednesday, Apr 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 154,000 payroll jobs lost in March, down from 183,000 added in February.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 45.0, down from 50.1 in February.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The PMI was at 50.1% in February, the employment index was at 46.9%, and the new orders index was at 49.8%

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesLate: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 11.9 million SAAR in March, down from 16.8 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

----- Thursday, Apr 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 3.000 million initial claims, down from 3.283 million the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for January from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $40.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $45.3 billion in January.

----- Friday, Apr 3rd -----

Year-over-year change employment8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.   The consensus is for 100,000 jobs lost, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.9%.

There were 273,000 jobs added in February, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In February, the year-over-year change was 2.409 million jobs.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for March.   The consensus is for a reading of 48.1, down from 57.3.