by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2016 07:16:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Worst Day For Mortgage Rates in Over 3 Years

Mortgage Rates skyrocketed today, relative to their average range of movement. It was the single biggest move higher since the days of the taper tantrum in mid-2013. Virtually all lenders are quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates that are at least an eighth of a point higher versus yesterday. Over the past decade, you can count single-day eighth-point moves without using any toes. Some lenders were a quarter point higher, which has only happened a few times, ever.
emphasis added

Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 263 thousand initial claims, down from 265 thousand the previous week.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2016 02:53:00 PM

In January 2013 I wrote The Future's so Bright .... In that post I outlined why I was becoming more optimistic. I updated that post earlier this year (with a discussion of demographics).

For new readers: I was very bearish on the economy when I started this blog in 2005 - back then I wrote mostly about housing (see: LA Times article and more here for comments about the blog). I predicted a recession in 2007, and then I started looking for the sun in early 2009, and I've been fairly positive since then (although I expected a sluggish recovery).

I've also been optimistic about next year (2017), with most economic indicators improving - more jobs, lower unemployment rate, rising wages and much more - and with more room to run for the current expansion.   Also the demographics in the U.S. are becoming more favorable (see here for more on improving demographics).

Now Mr. Trump has been elected President.  How does that change the outlook?

In the long term, there is little or no change to the outlook.  The future is still bright!  Although I'm concerned about the impact of global warming.

In the short term, there is also no change (Mr Obama will be President until January, and it takes time for new policies to be implemented).

The intermediate term might be impacted. The general rule is don't invest based on your political views, however it is also important to look at the impact of specific policies.

I will probably disagree with most of Mr. Trump's proposals for both normative reasons (different values), and for positive reasons (because Mr. Trump rejects data that doesn't fit his view - and that is not good).

With Mr. Trump, no one knows what he will actually do.  He has said he'd "build a wall" along the border with Mexico, renegotiate all trade deals, cut taxes on high income earners, repeal Obamacare and more.   As an example, repealing the ACA - without a replacement - would lead to many millions of Americans without health insurance.  And those with preexisting conditions would be uninsurable.   This seems politically unlikely (without a replacement policy), but it is possible.

Since Trump is at war with the data (he rejects data that doesn't fit his views), I don't expect evidence based policy proposals - and that almost always means bad results.   However bad results might mean higher deficits with little return - not an economic downturn.  Until we see the actual policy proposals, it is hard to predict the impact.  I will not predict a recession just because Trump is elected.  In fact, additional infrastructure spending might give the economy a little boost over the next year or two.   On the other hand, deporting 10+ million people would probably lead to a recession.  We just have to wait and see what is enacted.

In conclusion: The future is still bright,  but there might be a storm passing through.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2016 12:21:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing.

From Dodge Data & Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Moves Higher in October

The Dodge Momentum Index grew 4.1% in October to 133.6 from its revised September reading of 128.3 (2000=100). The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which have been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. October’s gain nearly reversed the loss in September, and returns the Momentum Index to the rising trend that began earlier in the year. The commercial component of the Momentum Index rose 6.1% in October, and is 20% above last year. This suggests that despite being in a more mature phase of the building cycle, commercial construction has room for further growth in the coming months. The institutional component of the Momentum Index increased 1.4% in the month, and is now 10% higher than one year ago.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 133.6 in October, up from 128.3 in September.

According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". In general, this suggests further increases in CRE spending over the next year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2016 10:11:00 AM

This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up 1.0% year-over-year in October.  This was the eighth consecutive month with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in October were up 12.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.0% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 1.0% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow in Phoenix.    According to Case-Shiller, prices in Phoenix are up 2.7% through August (about a 4.0% annual rate) - slower than in 2015.

October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Oct-08	5,384	---	1,348	25.0%	55,7031	---
Oct-09	8,121	50.8%	2,688	33.1%	39,312	-29.4%
Oct-10	6,591	-18.8%	2,800	42.5%	45,252	15.1%
Oct-11	7,561	14.7%	3,336	44.1%	27,266	-39.7%
Oct-12	7,020	-7.2%	3,081	43.9%	22,702	-16.7%
Oct-13	6,038	-14.0%	1,910	31.6%	26,267	15.7%
Oct-14	6,186	2.5%	1,712	27.7%	27,760	5.7%
Oct-15	6,308	2.0%	1,570	24.9%	24,702	-11.0%
Oct-16	7,102	12.6%	1,494	21.0%	24,950	1.0%
1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2016 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 4, 2016.

... The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week to its lowest level since May 2016. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to its highest level since June 2016, 3.77 percent, from 3.75 percent, with points increasing to 0.38 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity increased this year since rates declined, however, since rates are up a little recently, refinance activity has declined a little.


The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

The purchase index was "11 percent higher than the same week one year ago".

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2016 05:01:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below is a table showing selected operating results of large publicly-traded builders for the quarter ended September 30, 2016.

In aggregate these seven large builders showed combined net home orders of 24,648 last quarter, up 8.4% from the comparable quarter of 2015. Sales per community for these combined builders last quarter were up 6.6% YOY, reflecting very slow growth in the number of active communities.

In stark contrast to these builders’ results, the Census Bureaus’s preliminary estimate of new single-family home sales for the third quarter of 2016 was 147,000 (not seasonally adjusted), up 23.5% from the comparable quarter of 2015.

There are many reasons, of course for large builder results to differ from Census estimates. First, of course, is that market shares can change significantly. Second, Census treats sales cancellations differently than builders do in their financial. Third, the geographic “footprint” of these large builders does not reflect that of the US as a whole. And finally, there may be timing differences between when builders “recognize” a sale and when a sale shows up the Census’ Survey of Construction.

Having said that, however, the latest quarterly results of these large builders shows unusually slow growth relative to the growth in Census’ estimate of new SF home sales. Given that preliminary Census home sales estimates are often revised significantly, in part because Census must “guesstimate” sales of homes for which a permit has not yet been issued, I believe there is a better-than-even change that third-quarter new home sales as estimate by the Census Bureau will be revised downward in the next monthly release.

	Net Orders			Settlements			Average Closing Price (000s)
Qtr. Ended:	9/16	9/15	% Chg	9/16	9/15	% Chg	9/16	9/15	% Chg
D.R. Horton	8,744	8,477	3.1%	12,247	10,576	15.8%	$297	289	2.9%
PulteGroup	4,775	4,092	16.7%	5,037	4,356	15.6%	$374	336	11.3%
NVR	3,477	3,258	6.7%	3,922	3,607	8.7%	$484	469	3.2%
CalAtlantic*	3,531	3,238	9.0%	3,680	3,231	13.9%	$452	411	10.0%
Meritage Homes	1,737	1,567	10.8%	1,800	1,712	5.1%	$409	387	5.7%
MDC Holdings	1,296	1,109	16.9%	1,293	1,080	19.7%	$445	421	5.7%
M/I Homes	1,088	988	10.1%	1,148	994	15.5%	$365	341	7.1%
SubTotal	24,648	22,729	8.4%	29,127	25,556	14.0%	$371	$352	5.5%

*Note: CalAtlantic was formed with the merger of Standard Pacific and Ryland, completed in October 2015. The Q3/2015 statistics for CalAtlantic are pro forma statistics for Standard Pacific and Ryland combined

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2016 01:01:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada Housing Market Cools Down in October, GLVAR Housing Statistics for October 2016

The Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR) reported Tuesday that the local housing supply remains tight as Southern Nevada home prices and sales cooled a bit from previous months but remain ahead of last year’s levels.
...
According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in October was 3,225. That was down slightly from September, but up 5.5 percent from 3,057 one year ago. Compared to the same month one year ago, 6.7 percent more homes, and 6.1 percent more condos and townhomes sold in October.
...
By the end of October, GLVAR reported 7,693 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s down 29.7 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,245 properties listed without offers in October represented a 45.8 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added

1) Overall sales were up 5.5% year-over-year.

2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down sharply from a year ago (A very sharp decline in condo inventory).

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2016 10:05:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 5.5 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires edged down to 5.1 million and total separations was little changed at 4.9 million. ...
...
The number of quits was little changed in September at 3.1 million. The quits rate was 2.1 percent. Over the month, the number of quits was little changed for total private, and increased for government (+36,000).
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for October.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 5.486 million from 5.453 million in August.

The number of job openings (yellow) are up 2% year-over-year.

Quits are up 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

This is another solid report.

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2016 08:44:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): October 2016 Report: Small Business Economic Trends

The Index of Small Business Optimism rose 0.8 points to 94.9, still in the 94 range that has bound it for the past five months and well below the 42 year average of 98.
...
Fifty-five percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down 3 points), but 48 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-eight percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 4 points. This indicates that labor markets remain tight and the unemployment rate will remain steady at what many call “full employment”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index increased to 94.9 in October.

This is the highest level this year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2016 08:07:00 PM

A few truths: Trump lies repeatedly, he knows nothing about economics, and he is a disgusting person (his comments were not locker room comments). And his threat to jail his political opponent will be discussed and criticized for centuries.

Back in May, I wrote A Comment on Litmus Test Moments. I gave an example of some litmus test moments (issues that will come back and haunt people if they were on the wrong side - like the housing bubble). I argued that rejecting Trump will be a "litmus test" in the future.

Send a message to the future! It is important that Trump loses and loses badly. You will feel better about yourself in a few years when you can honestly say you didn't vote for Trump.  It will be even better if you can point to a public post opposing Trump written before the election (twitter, Facebook, blog, etc).  You will thank me later.

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS. Jobs openings decreased in August to 5.443 million from 5.831 million in July. The number of job openings were up 3% year-over-year, and Quits were up 4% year-over-year.

• All day, U.S. Presidential Election. The forecasts of all key analysts and economists assume Ms. Clinton will be the next President (my forecasts also assume a Clinton presidency). So if Trump is elected, expect some market volatility as forecasts are revised.

A beautiful story ...