RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 02:13:00 PM
Wednesday, June 17, 2015
FOMC Projections and Press Conference
Statement here, "economic activity has been expanding moderately".
As far as the "Appropriate timing of policy firming", participant views were unchanged on the timing of the first rate hike (15 participants expect the first rate hike in 2015, and 2 in 2016), but "dots" moved down (fewer rate hikes this year and next).
The FOMC projections for inflation are still on the low side through 2017.
Yellen press conference here.
On the projections, GDP for 2015 was revised down, the unemployment rate was revised up slightly, and inflation projections were mostly unrevised.
FOMC Statement: No Change in Policy, Economy Expands Moderately
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 02:00:00 PM
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
LA area Port Traffic: Imports Up, Exports Down in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 12:17:00 PM
Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the trade deficit increased in March too), and port traffic declined in April. Perhaps traffic in May is closer to normal now.
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).
Mortgage Equity Withdrawal More Negative in Q1 2015
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 09:46:00 AM
Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008.
The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data (released last week) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW", but there is still little (but increasing) MEW right now - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures).
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey, Purchase Index up 15% YoY
by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2015 07:00:00 AM
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 5.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 12, 2015. ...
The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
Wednesday: FOMC Day
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:01:00 PM
Earlier FOMC Previews:
FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated.
Duy: FOMC Preview
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 04:11:00 PM
Earlier FOMC Preview: No Rate Hike
From Tim Duy writing at Bloomberg: Janet Yellen's Prediction Last Month Is Already Being Vindicated. Excerpt:
Comments on May Housing Starts
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 01:23:00 PM
Total housing starts in May were below expectations, however, overall, including the upward revisions to March and April, starts were solid.
There was also a significant increase for permits in May (mostly for the volatile multi-family sector). However I wouldn't put too much emphasis on permits. The last time there was a spike in multi-family permits was in June 2008, and that was just before starts collapsed! Usually more is better, but I don't expect a huge surge in multi-family starts in June - I suspect this was just permit timing and starts will be spread out over several months.
Earlier: Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May
This first graph shows the month to month comparison between 2014 (blue) and 2015 (red).
CoreLogic: "CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015"
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 10:31:00 AM
From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports 254,000 US Properties Regained Equity in the First Quarter of 2015
CoreLogic ... today released new analysis showing 254,000 properties regained equity in the first quarter of 2015, bringing the total number of mortgaged residential properties with equity at the end of Q1 2015 to approximately 44.9 million, or 90 percent of all mortgaged properties. Nationwide, borrower equity increased year over year by $694 billion in Q1 2015. The total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity is now at 5.1 million, or 10.2 percent of all mortgaged properties. This compares to 5.4 million homes, or 10.8 percent, that had negative equity in Q4 2014, a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4.7 percent. Compared with 6.3 million homes, or 12.9 percent, reported for Q1 2014, the number of underwater homes has decreased year over year by 1.2 million, or 19.4 percent.
Housing Starts decreased to 1.036 Million Annual Rate in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2015 08:37:00 AM
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,036,000. This is 11.1 percent below the revised April estimate of 1,165,000, but is 5.1 percent above the May 2014 rate of 986,000.
Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 680,000; this is 5.4 percent below the revised April figure of 719,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 349,000.
emphasis added
