RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:50:00 PM
Monday, June 15, 2015
4% Sustained GDP Growth?
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May. Total housing starts increased to 1.135 million (SAAR) in April. Single family starts increased to 733 thousand SAAR in April. The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 1.090 million (SAAR) in May.
There has been some discussion if sustained 4% growth in the U.S. can be achieved. Here are two articles:
From Neil Irwin at the NY Times The Upshot: Jeb Bush Wants 4 Percent Growth. That Will Be Hard to Reach.
[F]or 4 percent growth to be realistic in the next presidential term — not just for a one-quarter spurt but on a sustained basis — one of two things must apply. Either the technocrats at places like the C.B.O. and the Fed must be wildly underestimating the nation’s growth potential today. Or a revolution in American productivity must be on the way. Neither of those are things that a president has much control over.And from Matthew Klein at the Financial Times Alphaville: Jeb Bush’s growth goal isn’t outlandish
ECRI Admits Incorrect Recession Call
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 05:10:00 PM
This weekend I updated: Predicting the Next Recession.
In that post, I noted that I hadn't seen ECRI admit their recent series of recession calls were incorrect. Actually they have admitted an incorrect call, and here is their recent admission (ht M): The Greater Moderation
In line with the old adage, “never say never,” [ECRI's] September 2011 U.S. recession forecast did turn out to be a false alarm.I disagreed with that call in 2011; I wasn't even on recession watch!
Update: Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 01:30:00 PM
Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph.
The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California.
The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and prices in 2006).
NAHB: Builder Confidence increased to 59 in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 10:06:00 AM
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 59 in June, up from 54 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Hits Yearly High in June
Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in May
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 09:29:00 AM
From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production decreased 0.2 percent in May after falling 0.5 percent in April. The decline in April was larger than previously reported, but the rates of change for previous months were generally revised higher, leaving the level of the index in April slightly above its initial estimate. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2 percent in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months. The slower rate of decrease for mining output last month was due in part to a reduced pace of decline in the index for oil and gas well drilling and servicing. The output of utilities increased 0.2 percent in May. At 105.1 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in May was 1.4 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 78.1 percent, a rate that is 2.0 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added
NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates "conditions worsened slightly" in June
by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2015 08:33:00 AM
Sunday, June 14, 2015
Monday: Industrial Production, Empire State Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 08:00:00 PM
From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Hones Tricky Message as It Nears Boosting Rates
While investors have been hyper-focused on the timing of the Fed’s first rate increase since 2006—many are now looking to September and not this week’s Fed meeting—Fed officials have been trying to hone a tricky post-liftoff message about where rates are going in the longer-run.Monday:
Fed officials are haunted by many events of the past two decades. ... Eager to avoid similar jolts, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, in her past two major addresses, emphasized she expects rate increases to be slow and gradual once they start.
Reports on Greek Tragedy: Meeting Fails
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 07:15:00 PM
Looking grim. The Germans do not understand there is a limit to the cycle of more austerity, and more economic depression ... eventually, in a democracy, the people will say "no".
From the Financial Times: Greek default fears rise as ‘11th-hour’ talks collapse
Update: Predicting the Next Recession
by Calculated Risk on 6/14/2015 11:45:00 AM
Recently there has been more discussion of a recession in 2015. That seems very unlikely to me - I'm not even on "recession watch". I decided to repeat a post I wrote in January 2013. (almost 2 1/2 years ago). This still seems correct - and I've added a few updates in italics.
Saturday, June 13, 2015
Schedule for Week of June 14, 2015
by Calculated Risk on 6/13/2015 08:11:00 AM
The key economic report this week is May Housing Starts on Tuesday.
For manufacturing, the May Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report, and the June NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly surveys will be released this week.
For prices, May CPI will be released on Thursday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.1 last month (above zero is expansion).
