by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2013 10:43:00 AM

From Roger Vincent at the LA Times: In the Inland Empire, an industrial real estate boom

Nestled on the windy plains at the foot of the San Bernardino Mountains, once austere stretches of agricultural land have morphed into the country's most desirable industrial real estate market, and it is growing faster than any other industrial region in the U.S.
...
The clamor for these big buildings is so intense in San Bernardino and Riverside counties that developers are erecting more than 16 million square feet of warehouses on speculation, meaning they are gambling that buyers or renters will rush forward to claim the buildings by the time they are complete.
...
Although the Inland Empire was hard hit by the recession and earned a reputation for mortgage foreclosures, evictions and high unemployment rates during the downturn, the industrial property business has remained a bright spot. And it is now picking up speed.

Southern California, with its enormous population and teeming seaports, has long been a vital hub for major retailers and manufacturers ... But with Los Angeles and Orange counties essentially full, the Inland Empire with its wide-open spaces is now where the big new buildings are flying up.

Los Angeles County's industrial vacancy is a mere 2.5%, the lowest in the country, said Kurt Strasmann of brokerage CBRE Group Inc., and some of the priciest industrial property in the U.S. is around Los Angeles International Airport. Orange County is the second-tightest market in the U.S., with 3.5% vacancy.

The two counties and the Inland Empire have a combined total of more than 1.65 billion square feet of industrial property, which is twice as big as the next largest market, Chicago.

Back in 2005 and 2006, I wrote frequently about the coming residential bust in the Inland Empire. But this industrial (distribution) boom makes more sense and is directly related to the increase in trade with Asia.

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2013 06:15:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Apr 12, 2013.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Mergers were the theme of the week as four problem banks exited the list by merging on an unassisted basis. After removal, the list holds 786 institutions with assets of $289.4 billion. A year ago, the list had 944 institutions with assets of $375.3 billion.

Acquired were Herald National Bank, New York, NY ($490 million); Reliance Bank, FSB, Fort Myers, FL ($59 million); The Community Bank of Shell Knob, Shell Knob, MO ($11 million); and Monadnock Community Bank, Peterborough, NH ($207 thousand). A few of these deals happened months ago but the FDIC has just updated their database to reflect the charters being eliminated. Herald National Bank was acquired by BankUnited Inc. (BKU) and is CEO John Kanas return vehicle to the New York City market after he sold North Fork Bancorp in 2006 to Capital One, which delayed his return through a lawsuit claiming breach of a non-compete agreement. Reliance Bank, FSB merged with its sister bank Reliance Bank, Des Peres, MO ($914 million), which is also operating under a formal enforcement action. The other interesting merger is Monadnock, which was acquired by GFA Federal Credit Union in the first ever purchase of a savings bank by a credit union.

Next week, we anticipate the OCC will release its actions through mid-March 2013.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending April 12th
• Schedule for Week of April 14th

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2013 01:06:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending April 12th

There are two key housing reports that will be released this week: March housing starts on Tuesday, and the April homebuilder confidence survey on Monday.

Also, for manufacturing, the March Industrial Production survey will be released on Tuesday.  Also for manufacturing, the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed April surveys will be released this week.

For prices, CPI for March will be released on Tuesday.

----- Monday, Apr 15th -----
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of 7.5, down from 9.2 in March (above zero is expansion).

10:00 AM ET: The April NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 45, up from 44 in March. Although this index has increased sharply in 2012, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

----- Tuesday, Apr 16th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for March.

Total housing starts were at 917 thousand (SAAR) in February, 0.8% above the revised January estimate of 910 thousand. Single family starts increased to 618 thousand in February and are at the highest level since June 2008.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 930 thousand (SAAR) in March, up from 917 thousand in February.

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for March. The consensus is no change in CPI in March (due to lower gasoline prices) and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.

9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March.

This shows industrial production since 1967 through January.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production in March, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 78.3%.

----- Wednesday, Apr 17th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.  Analysts will look for signs of a slow down.

----- Thursday, Apr 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 347 thousand from 346 thousand last week.  The "sequester" budget cuts might be starting to impact weekly claims.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of minus 3.3, up from 2.0 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

1:00 PM: Speech by Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, Reflections on Inequality and the Recent Business Cycle, At the 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies, New York, New York

----- Friday, Apr 19th -----
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2013

by Calculated Risk on 4/13/2013 08:57:00 AM

It was a very light week for economic data, but the key report - March retail sales - was disappointing. Consumer sentiment was also weak in early April.

However initial weekly unemployment claims declined sharply, and the number of job openings is at the highest level since 2008. So there was a little good economic news.

Not much has changed for the economic outlook - we are still looking at sluggish growth for the next couple of quarters due to the payroll tax increase and sequestration budget cuts, but the economy should continue to grow with housing leading the way.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

• Retail Sales declined 0.4% in March

Click on graph for larger image.

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8% from March 2012. Sales for January and February were revised down.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.4%. Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.2%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 23.5% from the bottom, and now 10.4% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.3% on a YoY basis (2.8% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of no change in retail sales.  Lower gasoline prices subtracted from retail sales - after boosting sales in February.

• BLS: Job Openings increased in February, Most since May 2008

Jobs openings increased in February to 3.925 million, up from 3.611 million in January. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up 11% year-over-year compared to February 2012.  This is most job openings since May 2008.

Quits were unchanged in February, and quits are up 7% year-over-year and at the highest level since 2008. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Not much changes month-to-month in this report, but the trend suggests a gradually improving labor market.

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 346,000

The DOL reported: "In the week ending April 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 346,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 358,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 355,000."

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 358,000 - the highest level since February.

Weekly claims were below the 365,000 consensus forecast.  

• Preliminary April Consumer Sentiment declines to 72.3

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April declined to 72.3 from the March reading of 78.6.

This was well below the consensus forecast of 79.0. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, default threats, etc).

Sentiment is mostly moving sideways at a fairly low level (with ups and downs).

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 10:37:00 PM

From the NY Times: Fewer Home Loans Start to Affect Banks

The nation’s biggest banks, capitalizing on government efforts to bolster the housing market, have raked in handsome mortgage profits of late. On Friday, that started to change.

Wells Fargo, the nation’s largest home lender, disclosed that it originated fewer home loans and recorded lower mortgage banking income in the first quarter of 2013. JPMorgan Chase, the biggest bank by assets, reported limited appetite for new mortgages and a drop in mortgage banking income.
...
Underscoring a slowdown in refinancing, Wells Fargo said those loans accounted for 65 percent of mortgage originations in the first quarter, down from 76 percent in the period a year earlier.

As the weekly MBA surveys have shown, refinancing activity is still at a very high level, but starting to slow.   Purchase activity is slowly picking up, but not enough to make up for the decline in refinance activity.  So overall mortgage originations will most likely decline in 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 02:51:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Below are charts showing some historical data on residential properties under contract versus residential homes closed in Tucson, the mid-Atlantic region covered by MRIS, and Orlando. As the charts indicate, over the last few years home closings (closed sales) have been far below what one normally might have expected based on the pre-housing bust relationship between homes under contract and home closings. All of these areas have much higher share of outstanding contract with contingencies (including short sales pending lender approval) today than was the case five or six years ago.

CR Note: Tom makes an important point. I mention this every month when the NAR releases their existing home sales report: "The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, most "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005.   In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year."

I think active listings mostly impact price, but all the contingent and pending listings make it hard to compare "inventory" directly to earlier years.

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 11:17:00 AM

From Realtor.com: Realtor.com March data indicates that the amount of homes on the market showed a modest increase since February 2013

In March, the total number of single-family homes, condos, townhomes and co-ops for sale in the U.S. (1,529,432) increased by 2.36 percent month-over-month. On an annual basis, however, inventory decreased by 15.22 percent.

The median age of inventory of for sale listings fell to 78 days in March, down 20.41 percent from February and 12.35 percent below the median age one year ago (March 2012).

California continues to lead the list ... with largest year-over-year decline in for-sale inventories. Seattle is the only market outside of California in the top 10, and experienced a decline of 40.17 percent in for-sale inventories year-over-year. The 10 markets with the largest year-over-year declines in inventory are Stockton-Lodi, Sacramento, Orange County, Oakland, San Jose, Los Angeles-Long Beach, Ventura, San Diego, Riverside-San Bernardino and Seattle. Of the 146 markets realtor.com monitors, only nine experienced an increase in for-sale inventory.

Note: Realtor.com reports the average number of listings in a month, whereas the NAR uses an end-of-month estimate.

Inventory decreased year-over-year in 134 of the 146 markets realtor.com tracks,  and inventory decreased by 20% or more year-over-year in 55 markets.

The NAR is scheduled to report March existing home sales and inventory on Monday, April 22nd.

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 09:59:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image.

The preliminary Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for April declined to 72.3 from the March reading of 78.6.

This was well below the consensus forecast of 79.0. There are a number of factors that impact sentiment including unemployment, gasoline prices and, for 2013, the payroll tax increase and even politics (sequestration, default threats, etc).

Sentiment is mostly moving sideways at a fairly low level (with ups and downs).

by Calculated Risk on 4/12/2013 08:49:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8% from March 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $418.3 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month, but 2.8 percent above March 2012. ... The January to February 2013 percent change was revised from +1.1 percent to +1.0 percent (±0.2%).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for January were revised down too.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.4%. Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.2%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 23.5% from the bottom, and now 10.4% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.3% on a YoY basis (2.8% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of no change in retail sales.  Lower gasoline prices subtracted from retail sales - after boosting sales in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/11/2013 08:01:00 PM

Congratulations to Laura Fromme, the 2013 recipient of the Doris "Tanta" Dungey scholarship!

Click on picture for larger image.

Note: For new readers, Tanta was my co-blogger from from Dec 2006 through November 2008. Please see: Sad News: Tanta Passes Away, NY Times: Doris Dungey, Prescient Finance Blogger, Dies at 47 and much more at In Memoriam: Doris "Tanta" Dungey and on the scholarship.

Friday economic releases:
• 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to be unchanged in March (following the large increases in January and February), and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for March will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 9:55 AM, the preliminary Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index for April will be released. The consensus is for a reading of 79.0, up from 78.6.

• At 10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

• At 12:30 PM, Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Creating Resilient Communities, At the 2013 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference, Washington, D.C.