by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 05:57:00 PM

Weekly Update: One of key questions for 2013 is Will Housing inventory bottom this year?. Since this is a very important question, I'll be tracking inventory weekly for the next few months.

If inventory does bottom, we probably will not know for sure until late in the year. In normal times, there is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The NAR data is monthly and released with a lag.  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) kindly sent me some weekly inventory data for the last several years. This is displayed on the graph below as a percentage change from the first week of the year.

In 2010 (blue), inventory followed the normal seasonal pattern, however in 2011 and 2012, there was only a small increase in inventory early in the year, followed by a sharp decline for the rest of the year.

So far - through late February - it appears inventory is increasing at a sluggish rate.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note: the data is a little weird for early 2011 (spikes down briefly).

The key will be to see how much inventory increases over the next few months. In 2010, inventory was up 8% by early March, and up 15% by the end of March.

For 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased about 5% at the peak.

So far in 2013, inventory is up 3.6%.   If inventory doesn't increase more soon, then the bottom for inventory might not be until 2014.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 04:51:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image.

By request - following the sell off today - here are a couple of stock market graphs I haven't posted in several months. The first graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990 (this excludes dividends).

The dashed line is the closing price today. The S&P 500 was first at this level in March 2000; almost 13 years ago.

The second graph (click on graph for larger image) is from Doug Short and shows the S&P 500 since the 2007 high ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 01:02:00 PM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses December closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 5.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... today released its latest LPS Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on December 2012 residential real estate transactions. The The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 15,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The LPS HPI is off 21.9% from the peak in June 2006. Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. LPS shows prices off 52.3% from the peak in Las Vegas, 44.2% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire), and at a new peak in Austin!

Looking at the year-over-year price change throughout 2012 - in May, the LPS HPI turned positive and was up 0.4% year-over-year, in June the index was up 0.9% year-over-year, 1.8% in July, 2.6% in August, 3.6% in September, 4.3% in October, 5.1% in November, and now 5.8% in December.   These steady increases on a year-over-year basis suggest prices bottomed early in 2012.

Note: Case-Shiller for December will be released Tuesday morning.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 10:39:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Increases but at a Slower Pace

Texas factory activity expanded in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 12.9 to 6.2, suggesting growth continued but at a slower pace.

... The new orders index was positive for the second month in a row, although it fell from 12.2 to 2.8.

... The general business activity index was positive for the third month in a row, although it dipped from 5.5 to 2.2.

Labor market indicators were mixed in February. Hiring slowed with the employment index moving down to 2.0, and about 17 percent of employers reporting hiring and 15 percent noting layoffs. The average workweek index dipped into negative territory with a reading of –3.0, suggesting hours worked declined.

Expectations regarding future business conditions continued to reflect optimism. The index of future general business activity edged up from 9.2 to 10.8. The index of future company outlook remained unchanged at 20.1.

This was slightly below expectations of a reading of 4.0 for the general business activity index and suggest sluggish growth.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2013 08:37:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Growth Moderated in January

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.32 in January from +0.25 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from December, and only two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in January.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.30 in January from +0.23 in December. Given the substantial upward revisions for November and December, January’s CFNAI-MA3 marked the third consecutive reading above zero. Additionally, January’s reading suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat above its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests limited inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity "moderated" in January, and growth was somewhat above its historical trend (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2013 09:58:00 PM

I'm frequently asked about the "Sequester". Next week the "Sequester" budget cuts will begin if government does not take any action, and over the next 7 months the sequester will require $85 billion in cuts, about half from defense programs. This is one of those really dumb policies that is hard to stop. The cuts will not be catastrophic, but as we've discussed, the deficit will decline sharply this year already, and we really don't need additional deficit reduction in the near term. Here are a couple of articles on the cuts:

From the WaPo: The big sequester gamble: How badly will the cuts hurt? and White House releases state-by-state breakdown of sequester’s effects

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January will be released. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February will be released. The consensus is a decrease to 4.0 from 5.5 in January (above zero is expansion).

Weekend:
• Summary for Week Ending Feb 22nd
• Schedule for Week of Feb 24th

The Asian markets are mostly up tonight with the Nikkei up 1.9%, and Shanghai Composite up 0.3%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are down 20 (fair value).

Oil prices have moved down a little recently with WTI futures at $93.00 per barrel and Brent at $113.82 per barrel.

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2013 07:36:00 PM

From CNN: Gas prices jump, but not as high, survey finds

Over the past two weeks, prices at the pump have jumped 20 cents, adding to a total rise of nearly 54 cents over the past nine weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey.

... And now, prices may even start to drop, says publisher Trilby Lundberg.

"I don't mean that gasoline prices cannot go up further from here," she said Sunday. "But the chief causes of the rise are out of the picture."

Crude oil prices are now going down, and wholesale prices -- which marketers and retailers pay -- are "starting to tumble," she said.

In Los Angeles prices are around $4.30 per gallon. 

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up over 50 cents per gallon from the low last December, and up 20 cents over the last two weeks. But it does appear the price increases have slowed.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2013 02:18:00 PM

Note: The automakers will report February vehicle sales this coming Friday, March 1st. The consensus is for sales of around 15.2 million SAAR.

From Edmunds.com: Despite Rising Gas Prices, February Auto Sales Strong at Estimated 15.5 Million SAAR, says Edmunds.com

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,198,538 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in February for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.5 million light vehicles. The projected sales [NSA] will be a 14.9 percent increase from January 2013, and a 4.3 percent increase from February 2012.

“Car sales are persevering despite economic factors on people’s minds like rising gas prices and the implementation of the payroll tax,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Pent-up demand and widespread access to credit are keeping up car sales momentum.”

The following table shows annual light vehicle sales, and the change from the previous year.  Light vehicle sales have seen double digit growth for three consecutive years.  The 2013 forecast was from Edmunds.com, but it appears sales were above expectations in January and February - and the annual forecast will probably be increased.

Light Vehicle Sales
	Sales (millions)	Annual Change
2005	16.9	0.5%
2006	16.5	-2.6%
2007	16.1	-2.5%
2008	13.2	-18.0%
2009	10.4	-21.2%
2010	11.6	11.1%
2011	12.7	10.2%
2012	14.4	13.4%
20131	15.0	3.7%
1Forecast

by Calculated Risk on 2/24/2013 10:23:00 AM

Some interesting details on institutional buyers from the Newsobserver.com: California billionaire bets on rentals with Wake home-buying spree (ht Sebastian)

[C]ompanies have raised billions from pension funds, private equity firms and other institutional investors to fuel their buying sprees. To date, these companies have focused their attention mainly on markets with large inventories of distressed homes, particularly in Arizona, Florida, Nevada and California.

What’s noteworthy about American Homes 4 Rent’s buying binge in Wake County [North Carolina] is that it isn’t just targeting distressed properties, or even existing homes. About a third of its purchases have been new homes acquired directly from homebuilders.
...
Institutional investors have invested at least $5.4 billion for purchase of single-family rentals nationwide during the past 18 months, according to Barclays, and an additional $8 billion is expected to be invested within the next couple of years. American Homes 4 Rent’s buying spree is being financed in part by a $600 million investment from the Alaska Permanent Fund, a $45 billion fund that invests royalties the state collects from oil companies.

American Homes 4 Rent is targeting homes with about 2,000 square feet that are less than 15 years old and are located in neighborhoods with better-than-average schools. The company paid around $65 to $75 per square foot for the first 1,500 homes it acquired, according to the meeting minutes, and it expects vacancy rates of 5 percent or less in its portfolio.

American Homes 4 Rent hopes to charge monthly rents equal to about 1 percent of the purchase price, and provide returns of about 6.5 percent a year to the Alaska Permanent Fund, according to the board’s meeting minutes. In three to seven years, if the housing market recovers, the portfolio could be sold or be converted into a publicly traded real estate investment trust ...
emphasis added

There is much more in the article. It is interesting that the institutional investors are moving beyond distressed properties, and even buying new homes in some areas.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Feb 22nd
• Schedule for Week of Feb 24th

by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2013 06:50:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

Travel on all roads and streets changed by -2.9% (-7.0 billion vehicle miles) for December 2012 as compared with December 2011. Travel for the month is estimated to be 236.3 billion vehicle miles.

Cumulative Travel for 2012 changed by +0.3% (9.1 billion vehicle miles). The Cumulative estimate for the year is 2,938.5 billion vehicle miles of travel.

The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.

Traffic was down in all regions, and down 4.6% in the Northeast. The rolling 12 month total is still moving sideways.

Click on graph for larger image.

In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.

Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 61 months - over 5 years - and still counting.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year.

Gasoline prices were up in December compared to December 2011. In December 2012, gasoline averaged of $3.38 per gallon according to the EIA. In 2011, prices in December averaged $3.33 per gallon. 

However, as I've mentioned before, gasoline prices are just part of the story.  The lack of growth in miles driven over the last 5 years is probably also due to the lingering effects of the great recession (high unemployment rate and lack of wage growth), the aging of the overall population (over 55 drivers drive fewer miles) and changing driving habits of young drivers.

With all these factors, it might take several more years before we see a new peak in miles driven. Maybe when we are all riding in self-driving electric cars!