by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 07:05:00 PM

Note: A couple of years ago I started watching several distressed markets very closely for a shift in the mix. We are now seeing a shift, although it is still early in the process ...

I've been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

So far there has been a shift from REO to short sales, and the percentage of distressed sales has been declining year-over-year. This data would suggest some improvement although there are still more distressed sales to come.

In June 2012, 54.2% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was down from 58.3% last month, and down from 65.2% in June 2011. This is lowest level since the Sacramento Realtors started tracking distressed sales, but 54% distressed is still extremely high!

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (stronger in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales decreases every summer and the increases in the fall and winter.

There has been a sharp increase in conventional sales, and there were more short sales than REO sales in June for the third consecutive month.

Total sales were down 0.8% compared to June 2011, but conventional sales were up 30% year-over-year. Active Listing Inventory for single family homes declined 65.5% from last June, and total inventory, including "short sale contingent", was off 39% year-over-year.

Cash buyers accounted for 33.4% of all sales (frequently investors), and median prices were up 3.2% from last June.

This appears to be a little more progress, although the market is still in distress - and the full impact of the mortgage settlement is still unknown.

We are seeing similar patterns in other distressed areas.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 05:01:00 PM

First a few excerpts from this article by Diana Olick at CNBC: When Foreclosure Supplies Fall, the Bottom Falls Out of Housing

While foreclosures brought home prices down initially, they are now driving them up because there is so much demand from investors and first time buyers, looking for bargains. Supplies of these cheap homes are also dwindling, because banks are still working to modify many troubled loans, and states that require a judge in the foreclosure process are still facing a huge backlog.
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This new lack of distressed supply may lead to what housing analyst Mark Hanson calls, “an investor gut check.” He sees early results that sales volume in many of the markets that were deemed to be “recovering” are actually falling.

“First is the artificial lack of distressed supply, which is the market in all of the miracle 'recovery' regions. As I have pounded the table over for years ... 'investors and first timers are thin and volatile cohorts that have been known to up and leave markets in a matter of a month or two leading to a demand collapse'. But equally responsible are Zombie Homeowners; those without enough equity to pay a Realtor 6 percent and put 20 percent down on a new house and/or good enough credit or strong enough income to secure a new mortgage loan,” writes Hanson.

Hanson calls the lack of distressed supply “artificial” because he believes banks are holding back some distressed inventory and/or that many of the loan modifications being worked out will inevitably fail. He points out that distressed supply is vital to a market like Phoenix, because 66 percent of its current borrowers owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth, and are therefore stuck in place, unable to buy or sell.

“Without repeat buyers in the market leaving a unit of supply when they move up, laterally or down (in the case of empty nesters), supply is simply removed from the market and not replaced,” notes Hanson.

Look at the headline "When Foreclosure Supplies Fall, the Bottom Falls Out of Housing". Really? I think we need to define "housing" and what a "housing recovery" looks like.

When I think of "housing", I think of 1) residential investment, especially housing starts and new home sales, and 2) house prices for existing homes. When the supply falls - especially foreclosure supply - I'd expect there to be less downward pressure on house prices, and also more opportunity for new home sales. That is what we are seeing.

So what does the headline mean? A decline in existing home sales? Yes, sales have declined year-over-year in some distressed markets (like Phoenix and Las Vegas), but that is not bad news. As I've pointed out before, those looking at the number of existing home sales to judge a "housing recovery" are looking in the wrong place.

Mark Hanson makes some interesting points, and this raises the question again of why supply has fallen so sharply. There are probably several reasons for the decline in supply: 1) negative equity keeps people from selling (and buying as Hanson notes), 2) banks aren't foreclosing quickly and are focusing more on modifications and short sales, 3) cash-flow investors have purchased a substantial number of houses, especially at the low end, and they will not be sellers for some time, and 4) seller price expectations (when sellers expect prices to stabilize, they no longer rush to sell).

For these reasons (and probably others), there is less supply. And this in turn might lead to fewer sales since investors and first time buyers are focused on the low end of the market (I also expect sales to decline from record levels in areas like Las Vegas). But lower existing home sales doesn't mean the "bottom falls out of housing". Actually it could mean the housing market is improving!

To look for a "housing recovery", we need to focus on residential investment (new home sales and housing starts) and existing home prices. Lower supply is a positive for both.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 12:37:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. Prices, as of the March Case-Shiller report, were off 61.1% from the peak, and off 5.8% over the last year.

Sales in 2011 were at record levels - even more than during the bubble - and it looks like 2012 might be an even stronger year, even with some new rules that slow the foreclosure process.

From the GLVAR: GLVAR reports local home prices up for fifth straight month, while local housing supply continues to shrink

According to GLVAR, the total number of local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in June was 3,945. That’s down from 4,134 in May and down from 4,540 total sales in June 2011.

Even with fewer sales last month and fewer homes listed for sale each month this year, [GLVAR President Kolleen] Kelley said existing home sales are ahead of the record pace set in 2011, when GLVAR reported 48,186 existing properties were sold in Southern Nevada.

The total number of homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service again decreased from May to June, with a total of 16,930 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of the month. That’s down 2.4 percent from 17,346 single-family homes listed for sale at the end of May and down 25.4 percent from one year ago. GLVAR reported a total of 3,713 condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS at the end of June. That’s down 0.4 percent from 3,728 condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS at the end of May, and down 29.2 percent from one year ago.
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By the end of June, GLVAR reported 3,690 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 2.9 percent from 3,800 such homes listed in May and down 67.5 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,083 properties listed without offers in June represented a 2.4 percent increase from 1,058 such properties listed without offers in May and a decrease of 59.2 percent from one year ago. ...
34.2 percent of all existing local homes sold during June were short sales, which occur when a lender agrees to sell a home for less than what the borrower owes on the mortgage.

Bank-owned homes accounted for 27.8 percent of all existing home sales in June, down from 32.6 percent in May.

“Since banks have been encouraging short sales and doing fewer foreclosures, short sales have finally surpassed (the sale of) foreclosures,” Kelley said.

Inventory continues to decline (down 67.5% year-over-year for single family homes) and sales are slowing, but still on pace for a record year.

The percent distressed sales was extremely high at 62% in June (short sales and foreclosures), but that was down from 67.3% in May. Some of this decline was due to the new foreclosure rules in Nevada.

It is important to understand that sales in these highly distressed markets will probably decline as the percent of distressed sales declined (sales are at record levels in Las Vegas - even above the bubble pace!). The key is to watch inventory (listed inventory is down 25.4% from a year ago, and non-contingent inventory is down 67.5%) and to watch the number of conventional sales.

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 3.6 million job openings on the last business day of May, little changed from 3.4 million in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
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The level of total nonfarm job openings in May was up from 2.4 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.
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In May, the quits rate displayed little or no change for total nonfarm, total private, and government. The number of quits was 2.1 million in May, up from 1.8 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for May, the most recent employment report was for June.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. According to JOLTS, the economy gained a few jobs in May (update: initial post had incorrect number for total separations).

Jobs openings increased in May to 3.642 million, up from 3.447 million in April. The number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 18% year-over-year compared to May 2011.

Quits increased slightly in May, and quits are now up about 6% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 7/10/2012 08:22:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): June Small-Business Optimism Lowest Since October 2011

In a disappointing reversal of several months of slow but positive growth, June’s Index of Small Business Optimism dove three points, falling to 91.4. The decline is significant, and relinquished the gains achieved earlier this year. Only one of the ten Index components improved; labor market indicators and spending plans for capital equipment and inventories accounted for about 40 percent of the decline.
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Nearly one-quarter of owners cite weak sales as their most important business problem (23 percent) [up from 20 percent in May].

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 91.4 in June from 94.4 in May.

This index remains low, and once again, lack of demand is the biggest problem for small businesses. (In the survey, the "single most important problem" was "poor sales".

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2012 10:21:00 PM

Another light day for economic data.

• At 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 92.0 in June.

• At 10:00 AM, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May will be released by the BLS. The number of job openings has generally been trending up.

On the Fed, from Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs, Bank Of America Say Fed To Hold Rate

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. say a weaker-than-forecast June jobs gain in the U.S. will lead the Federal Reserve to keep its benchmark interest rate at almost zero until the middle of 2015.
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“The ‘late 2014’ formulation has now ‘aged’ by six months since it was first adopted, but the economy still looks no better,” Jan Hatzius, the chief economist at Goldman Sachs in New York, wrote in a report yesterday. The central bank may announce the change as soon as its next policy meeting July 31 to Aug. 1, Hatzius wrote.

And from Tim Duy today at EconomistsView: Fedspeak - And Lots of It

Lots of Fed chatter today. Most of it points toward quantitative easing, but with a caveat: In general, we are getting a rehash of already stated views, views that should have pointed in the direction of QE3 at the last meeting.
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Bottom Line: Lots of Fed chatter, on average pointing in the direction of additional easing, but none of it really that new, and all of which would have pointed to QE3 at the last meeting. Enough chatter, though, that it makes me suspect that the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will have plenty of talk like "several participants saw the need for additional easing." If so, expectations for the Fed to step up in August will become even more entrenched.

QE3 or extend the extended period? That is probably the debate for the next FOMC meeting.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2012 05:38:00 PM

Tom Lawler sent me an update on Phoenix today:

The Arizona MLS reported that residential home sales by realtors in the Greater Phoenix, Arizona area totaled 9,129 in June, down 17.9% from last June’s pace. Bank-owned properties were 14.1% of last month’s sales, down from 40.8% last June, while last month’s short-sales share was 32.8%, up from 27.0% last June. Active listings in June totaled 19,857, down 1.5% from May and down 32.0% from a year ago. The median sales price last month was $141,000, up 27.6% from last June. Citing data from the Cromford Report, ARMLS said that foreclosures pending in Maricopa County in June totaled 17,910, down 35.1% from a year ago.

Look at the sharp decline in bank owned properties sold - this was down to 14.1% of all sales, down from 40.8% last June.

Short sales were up - from 27.0% to 32.8% - but total distressed sales were down to 46.9% of sales (still high) from 67.8% last June.

Lawler didn't mention it, but conventional sales were up about 19% compared to June 2011. So the decline in overall sales is actually a positive! I mentioned this last month: Home Sales Reports: What Matters

When we look at sales for existing homes, the focus should be on the composition between conventional and distressed. ... Those looking at the number of existing home sales for a recovery in housing are looking at the wrong number. Look at inventory and the percent of conventional sales.

And another key point; look at the decline in foreclosures pending. This was down from close to 44,000 in June 2010, to 27,616 in June 2011, and 17,910 in June 2012. Note: Arizona is a non-judicial foreclosure state, and as LPS noted this morning, the non-judicial states are recovering much faster than the judicial foreclosure states.

Also inventory (active listings) is down from around 42,000 in June 2010, and from 29,203 in June 2011, to 19,857 in June 2012. And months-of-supply is now close to 2 months in Phoenix.

We should have data on other distressed markets over the next few days, but I wanted to highlight this sharp decline in Phoenix.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2012 03:01:00 PM

Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008.

The following data is calculated from the Fed's Flow of Funds data and the BEA supplement data on single family structure investment. This is an aggregate number, and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW", but there is little MEW right now - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation.

For Q1 2012, the Net Equity Extraction was minus $107 billion, or a negative 3.6% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI). This is not seasonally adjusted.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, using the Flow of Funds (and BEA data) compared to the Kennedy-Greenspan method.

There are smaller seasonal swings right now, perhaps because there is a little actual MEW (this is heavily impacted by debt cancellation right now).

The Fed's Flow of Funds report showed that the amount of mortgage debt outstanding declined sharply in Q1. Mortgage debt has declined by $885 billion over the last four years. This decline is mostly because of debt cancellation per foreclosures and short sales, and some from modifications. There has also been some reduction in mortgage debt as homeowners paid down their mortgages so they could refinance.

For reference:

Dr. James Kennedy also has a new method for calculating equity extraction: "A Simple Method for Estimating Gross Equity Extracted from Housing Wealth". Here is a companion spread sheet (the above uses my simple method).

For those interested in the last Kennedy data included in the graph, the spreadsheet from the Fed is available here.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2012 11:55:00 AM

From San Francisco Fed President John Williams: The Economic Outlook and Challenges to Monetary Policy. Excerpt:

I expect that the unemployment rate will remain at or above 8 percent until the second half of 2013. What that means is that progress on bringing down the unemployment rate has probably slowed to a snail’s pace and perhaps even stalled.

Turning to inflation, I expect the inflation rate to come in below the Fed’s 2 percent target both this year and next. This forecast reflects several factors. A sluggish labor market is keeping a lid on compensation costs. A stronger dollar is holding down import prices. And the global growth slowdown has pushed down the prices of crude oil and other commodities.

My forecast is based on what I consider the most likely scenario. However, I am much more uncertain than usual about this forecast. I’ve mentioned the threat of automatic large tax increases and spending cuts at the start of 2013. But the most important wild card for the U.S. economy is Europe.

My forecast assumes that Europe’s distressed pattern of the past two years will continue, but that the situation won’t spin out of control. However, it is impossible to predict with any certainty how these circumstances will play out. Europe’s crisis could escalate much more than I expect.
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What does this mean for the Fed? We are falling short on both our employment and price stability mandates, and I expect that we will make only very limited progress toward these goals over the next year. Moreover, strains in global financial markets raise the prospect that economic growth and progress on employment will be even slower than I anticipate. In these circumstances, it is essential that we provide sufficient monetary accommodation to keep our economy moving towards our employment and price stability mandates.
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If further action is called for, the most effective tool would be additional purchases of longer-maturity securities, including agency mortgage-backed securities. These purchases have proven effective in lowering borrowing costs and improving financial conditions.

At the Fed, we take our dual mandate with the utmost seriousness. This is a period when extraordinary vigilance is demanded. We stand ready to do what is necessary to attain our goals of maximum employment and price stability.

A strong push for QE3 from a key member of the FOMC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/09/2012 08:45:00 AM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for May today. According to LPS, 7.20% of mortgages were delinquent in May, up slightly from 7.12% in April, and down from 7.96% in May 2011.

LPS reports that 4.12% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down slightly from 4.14% in April, and up slightly from 4.11% in May 2011.

This gives a total of 11.32% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,967,000 loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1,575,000 loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2,027,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 5,569,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in May. This is down from 6,350,000 in May 2011.

This following graph shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

Click on graph for larger image.

The total delinquency rate has fallen to 7.20% from the peak in January 2010 of 10.97%. A normal rate is probably in the 4% to 5% range, so there is a long ways to go.

The in-foreclosure rate was at 4.12%, down from the record high in October 2011 of 4.29%. There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.03 million).

The second graph shows percent of loans in the foreclosure process by process (Judicial vs. non-judicial).

From LPS: "Foreclosure inventory in judicial states is 6.5% - more than 2.5X that of non-judicial states (2.46%); national average is 4.14%. ... Aged foreclosure inventory - loans delinquent more than two years - is also much higher in judicial states, where it accounts for 53% of total foreclosure inventory, as opposed to just over 30% in non-judicial states ... The average YoY change in percentage of non-current loans for judicial states is -0.8%; in non-judicial states, it's -7.1%"

The third graph shows new problem loan rates continue to decline...

This graph shows the percent of loans that are seriously delinquent that were current 6 months ago.

From LPS: "New problem loan rates continue to improve, reaching a low not seen since July of 2007, after eight consecutive monthly declines"

There is much more in the Mortgage Monitor report.

The good news is the flow into the pipeline has slowed. The bad news - especially in judicial states - is that the pipeline is still very full.