by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2012 01:39:00 PM

Over on Yahoo today: McBride: Total Housing Starts Decline in May, but the Trend Is Positive

Here are some more thoughts ...

For the housing industry, the recovery has started. As I've noted before, the debate is now about the strength of the recovery, not whether there is a recovery. My view is housing will remain sluggish for some time, and I expect 2012 to be another weak year, but better than 2011.

Economist Michelle Meyer at Merrill Lynch, who remains cautious on housing, wrote the following this morning:

We look for residential investment to increase 8% in Q2, following the 19% pop in Q1. This will add 0.2pp to GDP growth in the quarter. Assuming similar gains in the second half of the year, real residential investment should be up 10% this year, adding 0.2pp to annual GDP growth. This is the first annual contribution since before the housing bubble burst in 2006.

... Although housing demand is improving ... it is still slow and many potential homebuyers are restricted due to tight credit. Moreover, homebuilders are continuing to compete with the overhang of distressed inventory in many markets. The gain in homebuilding is about relative strength - multifamily building (to satisfy the increase in renters) and single family construction in non-distressed markets.

The question about house prices is not as clear. Although I think prices have bottomed for the national repeat sales indexes, others are more pessimistic. As an example, from RadarLogic this morning:

Radar Logic also contends that there is a grave risk that economic forces outside the housing market will deliver a significant blow to housing demand. Given the excess supply in the market, such a reduction in demand could in turn result in another precipitous decline in housing prices.

The excess supply consists of homes that are currently on the market as well as homes that are not currently for sale but could enter the market when home prices start to strengthen. As home prices start to firm, home owners who are eager to sell but have been unable or unwilling to do so at prior price levels will put their homes on the market. The increase in supply will cut off price appreciation and, to the extent that the newly unleashed supply exceeds demand, push down home prices.

I think this is an argument for little or no increase in house prices, not for an additional "precipitous decline".

Here is an update to the graph comparing multi-family starts and completions. Since it usually takes over a year on average to complete a multi-family project, there is a lag between multi-family starts and completions. Completions are important because that is new supply added to the market, and starts are important because that is future new supply (units under construction is also important for employment).

These graphs use a 12 month rolling total for NSA starts and completions.

Click on graph for larger image.

The blue line is for multifamily starts and the red line is for multifamily completions.

The rolling 12 month total for starts (blue line) has been increasing since mid-2010. The 12 month total for starts is steadily increasing, and completions (red line) is lagging behind - but completions will following starts up over the course of the year (completions lag starts by about 12 months).

This second graph shows single family starts and completions. It usually only takes about 6 months between starting a single family home and completion - so the lines are much closer. The blue line is for single family starts and the red line is for single family completions.

For the fourth consecutive month, the rolling 12 month total for starts has been above completions. This usually only happens at a bottom, although the recovery for single family starts will probably remain sluggish.

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2012 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 3.4 million job openings on the last business day of April, down from 3.7 million in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Although the number of total nonfarm job openings declined in April, the number of openings was 1.0 million higher than at the end of the recession in June 2009.
...
The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to change jobs. In April, the quits rate was unchanged for total nonfarm, and essentially unchanged for total private and government. The number of quits was 2.1 million in April 2012, up from 1.8 million at the end of the recession in June 2009.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for April, the most recent employment report was for May.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings declined in April to 3.416 million, down from 3.741 million in March. However the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and openings are up about 13% year-over-year compared to April 2011.

Quits declined slightly in April, and quits are now up about 10% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708,000. This is 4.8 percent below the revised April estimate of 744,000, but is 28.5 percent above the May 2011 rate of 551,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 516,000; this is 3.2 percent above the revised April figure of 500,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 179,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 780,000. This is 7.9 percent above the revised April rate of 723,000 and is 25.0 percent above the May 2011 estimate of 624,000.

Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 494,000; this is 4.0 percent above the revised April figure of 475,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 266,000 in May.

Click on graph for larger image.

Total housing starts were at 708 thousand (SAAR) in May, down 4.8% from the revised April rate of 744 thousand (SAAR). Note that April was revised up from 717 thousand. March was revised up too.  

Single-family starts increased 3.2% to 516 thousand in May. April was revised up to 500 thousand from 492 thousand.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that total housing starts have been increasing lately after moving sideways for about two years and a half years.

Total starts are up 55% from the bottom start rate, and single family starts are up 41% from the low.

This was below expectations of 720 thousand starts in May, but the decline was because of the volatile multi-family sector. Single family starts were up, and building permits were up sharply. And previous months were revised up. This is a fairly strong report.

All Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 09:53:00 PM

With Spanish 10 year bond yields solidly above 7%, the focus will remain on Europe, especially Greece and Spain. And there will be another meaningless statement from the G20 tomorrow, which reminds me of this great line (and funny commentary) from Matthew O'Brien at the Atlantic: 'Call Me Maybe' Explains the Euro Crisis—Seriously

The only thing more maddening than "Call Me Maybe" is the euro crisis. One is a banal string of saccharine statements, punctuated by swift choruses of action. The other is a pop song. And neither will go away.

• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for May will be released. The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 720,000 (SAAR) in May, up from 717,000 in April.

• At 10:00 AM, the BLS will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April. The number of job openings has generally been trending up.


Did I mention Spanish 10 year bond yields are above 7%?

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 06:45:00 PM

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Clogged Credit Weighs on Fed Policy Makers

The housing bust left behind millions of people with credit records damaged by plunging home prices, lost jobs, past overspending or bad luck. Many are now walled off from the low interest rates engineered by the Federal Reserve ...
...
Fed officials are weighing new steps at their policy meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, following a period of disappointing jobs growth and financial turbulence in Europe. ... The credit divide factors into their thinking.

Analysts think the policy options under discussion are:

1) extend the extended period to 2015, the current statement reads "the Committee ... currently anticipates that economic conditions ... are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014".

2) Expand and extend the "program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities" (Operation Twist).

3) Launch QE3 (probably with more MBS buying).

None of these programs will bridge the credit divide.  And not much of a hint from a usual source ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 03:30:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Last Friday FHFA released its GSE “Foreclosure Prevention Report” for Q1/2012, which has data on Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s foreclosure prevention activity, foreclosure and other “home forfeiture” activity, delinquencies, and REO. Starting with last quarter’s report, FHFA began showing individual state data, for folks who like to track such things. Here is the report.

Included in the report is the number of delinquent loans by length of delinquency. In some states the percentage of “seriously delinquent (90+) loans that have been delinquent for a year or more is astonishingly high. Below is a chart showing the serious delinquency rate for combined GSE conventional SF mortgages by state broken out by length of delinquency.

Click on graph for larger image.

Florida, of course, is still “off the charts” in terms of its SDQ rate, and 73% of the seriously-delinquent SF loans in Florida have been delinquent for a year or more.

For the combined GSEs, states with the highest “really super-seriously” delinquency rates – i.e., 365+ -- at the end of March were Florida (8.15%), New Jersey (4.27%), Nevada (3.65%), Illinois (2.84%), New York (2.83%), Maine (2.68%), and Maryland (2.54%). For Maryland vs. Virginia “fans,” the “really super-seriously” delinquency rate in Virginia in March was 0.56%.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 12:47:00 PM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and other house price indexes.

FNC released their April index data today. FNC reported that their Residential Price Index™ (RPI) indicates that U.S. residential property values increased 0.6% in April (Composite 100 index). The other RPIs (10-MSA, 20-MSA, 30-MSA) increased about 1.0% in April. These indices are not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and are for non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales).

The year-over-year trends continued to show improvement in April, with all four composite indexes down about 2.4% compared to April 2011. For the 10, 20, and 30 city indexes, this is the smallest year-over-year decline in the FNC index since 2007 (five years ago).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through April 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

Some of the month-to-month gain is seasonal since this index is NSA. The key is the indexes are showing less of a year-over-year decline in April. If house prices have bottomed, the year-over-year decline should turn positive later this year or early in 2013.

The April Case-Shiller index will be released next Tuesday, June 26th.

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) increased 1 point in June to 29 (May was revised down to 28, so this was unchanged). Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises One Point in June

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes gained one point in June from a slightly revised level in the previous month to rest at 29 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. This is the highest level the index has attained since May of 2007.
“While the June HMI is in keeping with our forecast for gradually improving single-family home sales this year, recent economic reports that have shown some weakening in the pace of recovery likely factored into the marginal gain,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “In addition, builders across the country continue to report that overly tight lending conditions and inaccurate appraisals are major obstacles to completing sales at this time.”

...
In June, the HMI component measuring current sales conditions rose two points to 32, which is its highest level since April of 2007. Meanwhile, the components measuring sales expectations in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers held unchanged at 34 and 23, respectively.

Regionally, the HMI results were mixed in June, with two areas of the country posting gains and two posting declines. The Midwest registered a five-point gain to 31 and the West registered a four-point gain to 33, while the Northeast and South each posted two-point declines, to 29 and 26, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the June release for the HMI and the April data for starts (May housing starts will be released tomorrow). A reading of 29 was at the consensus.

Housing Investment and Construction Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2012 08:59:00 AM

From the WSJ: Spanish Yields Surge; Greek Relief Wanes

Spain's 10-year government bond yield soared above 7% and equities lost early gains ...

"Greek election results are unlikely to resolve euro-zone uncertainty," said Barclays. "Instead, the focus should shift to the June 28-29 EC summit, the likely renegotiation of the Greek austerity package, and to Spanish yields."

Here are the Spanish and Italian 10-year yields from Bloomberg. The Spanish 10 year yield is up to 7.28%, and the Italian 10 year yield is at 6.16%.

Note: The preliminary results of the independent Spanish Bank Stress Tests are due today. This is the results of the tests by Oliver Wyman Ltd. and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

On Thursday, June 21st, there is a meeting of the euro zone finance ministers, and the following week, starting on June 28th, is a two day European summit in Brussels.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2012 09:17:00 PM

The election in Greece was THE story on Sunday. New Democracy received the largest percentage of the vote - around 30% - and they still need to form a coalition government. There is no way they can meet the terms of the memorandum - so even if a government is formed, this will blow up again without further concessions. Meanwhile the Greek economy is collapsing and the unemployment rate is at record levels. Very sad.

For a few questions about what comes next, see from Joseph Cotterill at the Financial Times Alphaville: Greece, the post-election questions

• At 10:00 AM ET on Monday, the June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 29, unchanged from May. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

The Asian markets are up tonight. The Nikkei is up about 2%, and the Shanghai Composite is up 0.5%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 futures are up about 9, and Dow futures are up 90.

Oil: WTI futures are up to $85.21 (this is down from $109.77 in February) and Brent is up to $99.20 per barrel.

Saturday:
• Summary for Week Ending June 15th
• Schedule for Week of June 17th
For the monthly economic question contest (three more questions for June):