by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2010 11:42:00 AM

This is a holiday week (Merry Christmas!), but there will still be plenty of economic releases. There are two key housing reports: November existing home sales on Wednesday, and New home sales on Thursday.

----- Monday, Dec 20th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November). This is a composite index of other data.

Morning: Moody's/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) for October.

----- Tuesday, Dec 21st -----
11:00 AM: The U.S. Census Bureau will release key 2010 Census data at a news conference in Washington, D.C. "The 2010 Census data to be released include the resident population for the nation and the states as well as the congressional apportionment totals for each state".

----- Wednesday, Dec 22nd -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly since then.

8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate for Q3 from the BEA, and the consensus is for real GDP growth to be revised to an increase of 2.8% annualized from the second estimate of 2.5%.

8:30 AM: Corporate Profits, 3rd quarter 2010 (second estimate)

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for October. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 4.85 million at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in November, up about 7% from the 4.43 million SAAR in October.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993. Sales in October 2010 were at a 4.43 million SAAR). Housing economist Tom Lawler is estimating an increase to 4.61 million (SAAR) in November.

In addition to sales, the level of inventory and months-of-supply will be very important (since months-of-supply impacts prices).

----- Thursday, Dec 23rd -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims has been trending down over the last couple of months. The consensus is for the same as last week at 420,000.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income and a 0.5% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%. This is a key report for estimating the growth in Q4 PCE using the two-month method.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in durable goods orders after decreasing 3.3% in October.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for December). The consensus is for an increase to 74.5 from the preliminary reading of 74.2.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for an increase in sales to 300K (SAAR) in November from 283K in October.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales collapsed in May and have averaged only 290K (SAAR) over the last six months. Prior to the last six months, the previous record low was 338K in Sept 1981.

----- Friday, Dec 24th -----
U.S. Markets Closed: Christmas Holiday observed

----- Saturday, Dec 25th -----
12:01 AM: Santa Claus arrives.

Happy Holiday to All!

by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2010 08:42:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 17, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List finished the week at 920 institutions with assets of $411.4 billion, up from 919 institutions last week. Assets were essentially unchanged. This week there were six failures, but only four were on the list -- The Bank of Miami, National Association, Coral Gables, FL ($448 million); Chestatee State Bank, Dawsonville, GA ($244 million); United Americas Bank, National Association, Atlanta, GA ($242 million); and Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B., McCaysville, GA ($68 million Ticker: APAB).

As anticipated, the OCC released its actions through mid-November, which contributed to the five additions the weeks. Newly joining the list are Omnibank, National Association, Houston, TX ($384 million); Empire National Bank, Islandia, NY ($319 million Ticker: EMPK); The First National Bank of Mercersburg, Mercersburg, PA ($188 million Ticker: MCBG); The Headland National Bank, Headland, AL ($114 million); and The First National Bank of Fleming, Fleming, CO ($18 million).

The OCC strengthened actions against First Citizens Bank of Polson, National Association, Polson, MT ($26 million) and Metropolitan National Bank, New York, NY ($600 million) by replacing Formal Agreements with Consent Orders. The other change was a Prompt Corrective Action order being issued by the Federal Reserve against The Park Avenue Bank, Valdosta, GA ($1.0 billion).

We anticipate the FDIC will release its actions for November 2010 next week, and it is likely they will take the rest of the year off executing closures.

So 157 failures is probably it for 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 10:17:00 PM

Notes: this data is not seasonally adjusted. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possible hints about the trade report for November.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

There is a strong seasonal pattern for loaded inbound traffic, and traffic was up about 15% compared to November 2009.

After stalling out over the summer, loaded outbound traffic is up sharply over the last two months, and was up 19% YoY from November 2009.

This suggests that the trade deficit with China (and other Asian countries) might have declined somewhat in November (seasonally adjusted).

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 07:03:00 PM

Shadowy Reaper
A grim Black Friday for some
Nearing your banks door?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Southern Bank, Poplar Bluff, Missouri, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Southern Bank, Batesville, Arkansas

As of September 30, 2010, First Southern Bank had approximately $191.8 million in total assets and $155.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.8 million. ... First Southern Bank is the 156th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Arkansas.

From the FDIC: Farmers & Merchants Savings Bank, Manchester, Iowa, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community National Bank, Lino Lakes, Minnesota

As of September 30, 2010, Community National Bank had approximately $31.6 million in total assets and $28.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $3.7 million. ... Community National Bank is the 157th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Minnesota.

The FDIC is busy on probably the last closing day of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 06:09:00 PM

Zombied bank kill shot
U.A.B. casualty
Fewer walking dead
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of United Americas Bank, National Association, Atlanta, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, United Americas Bank, N.A. had approximately $242.3 million in total assets and $193.8 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $75.8 million. ... United Americas Bank, N.A. is the 155th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 21st in Georgia.

More Georgia ...

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 05:31:00 PM

To: Bad bank trio
Stockings filled with coal lumps.
From: Ms. Santa Bair
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: 1st United Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Bank of Miami, National Association, Coral Gables, Florida

As of September 30, 2010, The Bank of Miami, N.A. had approximately $448.2 million in total assets and $374.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $64.0 million. ... The Bank of Miami, N.A. is the 152nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 29th in Florida.

From the FDIC: Bank of the Ozarks, Little Rock, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Chestatee State Bank, Dawsonville, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, Chestatee State Bank had approximately $244.4 million in total assets and $240.5 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $75.3 million. ... Chestatee State Bank is the 153rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 19th in Georgia.

From the FDIC: Peoples Bank of East Tennessee, Madisonville, Tennessee, Assumes All of the Deposits of Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B., McCaysville, Georgia

As of September 30, 2010, Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B. had approximately $68.2 million in total assets and $76.4 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $26.0 million. ... Appalachian Community Bank, F.S.B. is the 154th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 20th in Georgia.

Georgia on the FDIC's mind ... again.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 04:08:00 PM

Note: Obama is signing the tax legislation right now.

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

"Based on data received so far, I have revised upward my estimate for existing home sales in November, and I now expect a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.61 million for November."

CR Note: Earlier Tom estimated 4.57 million SAAR, so this is a minor change. Existing home sales for November will be released on Wednesday December 22nd at 10 AM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 01:36:00 PM

Here is an update to a graph showing total housing starts and the percent vacant housing units (owner and rental) in the U.S.

Over a year ago, I used this chart to argue that there would be no "V shaped" recovery, and that housing starts wouldn't rebound rapidly. See: Housing Starts and Vacant Units: No "V" Shaped Recovery. In that earlier post, I also argued that the unemployment rate would remain high throughout 2010. Hey, housing matters!

Note: Housing starts are through November, and the combined vacancy rate through Q3 based on the Census Bureau vacancy rates for owner occupied and rental housing.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The good news is the total vacancy rate has started to decline. We know that the homebuilders will complete a record low number of housing units in 2010, and the declining vacancy rate suggests more households are being formed than net housing units added to the housing stock, or in other words, the excess supply is being absorbed.

The bad news is there is a long way to go. In some areas there will probably be a pickup in building next year, but the recovery in construction will remain sluggish until more of the excess supply is absorbed.

Looking at the graph, the vacancy rate continued to climb even after housing starts fell off a cliff. Initially this was because of a significant number of completions. Then some hidden inventory (like some 2nd homes) probably became available for sale or for rent, and also some households doubled up because of tough economic times. As the economy improves, the people that doubled up will probably be forming households - and that will help absorb the excess supply. But it will take time.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 11:27:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in November. Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate increases, 15 states registered rate decreases, and 14 states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to register the highest unemployment rate among the states, 14.3 percent in November. The states with the next highest rates were California and Michigan, 12.4 percent each, and Florida, 12.0 percent. North Dakota reported the lowest jobless rate, 3.8 percent, followed by South Dakota and Nebraska, 4.5 and 4.6 percent, respectively.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the high and low unemployment rates for each state (and D.C.) since 1976. The red bar is the current unemployment rate (sorted by the current unemployment rate).

Nine states now have double digit unemployment rates. A number of other states are close.

by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2010 08:58:00 AM

From the NY Times: Moody’s Slashes Ireland’s Credit Rating

Moody’s ... cut Ireland’s credit rating by five notches to Baa1, with a negative outlook, from Aa2 and it warned further downgrades could follow. The rating remains investment grade but if it were to move down by three more notches, Irish debt would be classified as junk.

“The Irish government’s financial strength could decline further if economic growth were to be weaker than currently projected or the cost of stabilizing the banking system turn out to be higher than currently forecast,” Moody’s said in a statement.

The yield on the Ireland 10-year bond is up to 8.37%.

Meanwhile, from Bloomberg: EU Leaders Create Debt-Management Mechanism From 2013