by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2010 07:30:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decline as Mortgage Rates Jump in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 16.5 percent from the previous week and is at the lowest level observed since July of this year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.0 percent from one week earlier, the first decrease after three consecutive weekly increases.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.46 percent from 4.28 percent, with points increasing to 1.13 from 1.04 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the highest 30-year fixed-rate observed in the survey since the week ending September 10, 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index is about 30% below the levels of April 2010. This suggests existing home sales will remain weak through at least the end of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 11:59:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

Reuters reports that the American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index decreased to 48.7 in October from 50.4 in September. Any reading below 50 indicates contraction.

The ABI press release is not online yet.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index showed expansion in September (above 50) for the first time since Jan 2008, however the index is indicating contraction again in October.

Note: Nonresidential construction includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction. So there will probably be further declines in CRE investment for the next 9 to 12 months.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 07:45:00 PM

The Financial Times is reporting that a Debt crisis team heads for Dublin. This team includes IMF, European Central Bank, and European Commission officials - personnel from the same agencies who visited Greece right before that bailout. Although this is just a "discussion", the Financial Times suggests this is sign "a bailout for the country’s ailing banks is imminent".

And from the WSJ: Banks' Exposure Stirs EU Contagion Worries

All told, European banks were sitting on more than $650 billion of exposure to Ireland as of March 31, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

A bailout of the Irish banks is a bailout of European banks (especially UK and German banks).

By request, here are links to the sovereign debt series from "Some investor guy" posted earlier this year:

Part 1: How Large is the Outstanding Value of Sovereign Bonds?

Part 2. How Often Have Sovereign Countries Defaulted in the Past?

Part 2B: More on Historic Sovereign Default Research

Part 3. What are the Market Estimates of the Probabilities of Default?

Part 4. What are Total Estimated Losses on Sovereign Bonds Due to Default?

Part 5A. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? $15 Trillion of Sovereign Debt in Default

Part 5B. Part 5B. What Happens If Things Go Really Badly? More Things Can Go Badly: Credit Default Swaps, Interest Swaps and Options, Foreign Exchange

Part 5C. Some Policy Options, Good and Bad

Part 5D. European Banks, What if Things Go Really Badly?

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 04:11:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland Home Sales Fall, Prices Flat

Southern California home sales dropped in October to their lowest level in three years amid doubts about the drawn-out market recovery, tight mortgage lending policies and expired government incentives.
...
A total of 16,744 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 7.4 percent from 18,091 in September, and down 24.3 percent from 22,132 for October 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
...
Foreclosure resales accounted for 34.7 percent of the resale market last month, up from a revised 33.6 percent in September and down from 40.4 percent a year ago.

In October 2009, existing home sales were boosted by the home buyer tax credit, and the NAR reported sales of 5.98 million on a Seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis.

Sales are down close to 25% year-over-year just about everywhere, and the initial estimate for national sales in October is about 4.5 million SAAR with about 10.4 months-of-supply.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 12:51:00 PM

Update: The Guardian is providing updates: Ireland's debt crisis - live coverage (ht Tommy)

From the Financial Times: Dublin in talks to resolve crisis

“We are discussing with both the ECB and the IMF and of course the Irish,” Mr [Rehn, the EU’s economic and monetary affairs commissioner] told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday. “The real problems are in the banking sector,” not with the government, “but these are connected”.
excerpt with permission

The WSJ has details of the proposed bailout: U.K. Support Sought for Ireland Bailout

A package of aid for Irish banks could be worth €45 billion to €50 billion, while a broader package designed to restore confidence in Ireland's public finances as well could range from €80 billion to €100 billion ... In any deal, the IMF would likely contribute half as much aid as the EU and U.K. combined.

And Irish leaders are still saying they have not asked for help, but they are now acknowledging the talks:

“Given the current market conditions, there have been on-going contacts at official level with our international partners,” [Taoiseach Brian Cowen] said.
...
“This is not an insurmountable challenge and, through working together with our partners in a calm and rational manner, we can resolve these issues and underpin financial stability in the medium and longer term," he said. “It is in all of our interests that we find a credible, efficient and above all workable solution that will provide assurance to the markets and thereby restore confidence and stability."

Some reports suggest a tentative deal could be reached very soon (perhaps as early as tomorrow).

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 10:00:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) was at 16 in November. This is a 1 point increase from the revised 15 in October (revised down from 16). This is the highest level since June. The record low was 8 set in January 2009, and 16 is still very low ...

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the November release for the HMI and the September data for starts (October housing starts will be released tomorrow).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

Press release from the NAHB: Builder Confidence Improves Slightly in November

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved slightly in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. The HMI rose one notch to 16 from a downwardly revised level of 15 in the previous month.
...
Two out of three of the HMI's component indexes registered improvement in November, while the third component held steady. The component gauging sales expectations in the next six months rose two points to 25, the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers rose one point to 12, and the component gauging current sales conditions held unchanged at 16.

This was slightly below expectations of an increase to 17.

by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2010 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production was unchanged in October after having fallen 0.2 percent in September. ... The capacity utilization rate for total industry was flat at 74.8 percent, a rate 6.6 percentage points above the low in June 2009 and 5.8 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 9.7% from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 74.8% is still far below normal - and well below the pre-recession levels of 81.2% in November 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production was unchanged in October, and production is still 7.3% below the pre-recession levels at the end of 2007.

This was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase in Industrial Production, and an increase to 74.9% for Capacity Utilization.

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2010 11:35:00 PM

An overview from the NY Times: Europe Fears That Debt Crisis Is Ready to Spread

European officials, increasingly concerned that the Continent’s debt crisis will spread, are warning that any new rescue plans may need to cover Portugal as well as Ireland to contain the problem they tried to resolve six months ago.
...
Of paramount concern to policy makers in Europe is Spain, which is struggling to close its own deficit of 9 percent of G.D.P. at a time when unemployment is more than 20 percent and the economy is failing to grow.

Officials of both Ireland and Portugal are saying they are not asking for help - Ireland is funded until mid-2011. So this crisis might simmer for some time ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2010 07:40:00 PM

Notes: this data is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was up 15% compared to October 2009.

Loaded outbound traffic was up 12% from October 2009.

For imports, there is a clear seasonal pattern and frequently a double peak - first in late summer, and then in October as retailers build inventory for the holiday season - so this was an unusual decrease in October compared to September.

For exports there is no clear seasonal pattern, and exports increased to just above the level in May. This suggests that the trade deficit with China (and other Asian countries) might have declined slightly in October (seasonally adjusted).

by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2010 05:05:00 PM

From Jon Prior at HousingWire: S&P predicts more home price declines through 2011

Standard & Poor's analysts believe home prices will drop between 7% and 10% through 2011 ...

"Low mortgage rates ...influence on home buying activities has been limited due to the weak housing market and a lack of demand," S&P credit analyst Erkan Erturk said. ...

Prices will continue to be pressed down as long as the market works through a backlog of distressed properties that remains elevated.

This gives me an excuse to update the graph on house prices and months-of-supply. The following graph shows existing home months-of-supply (left axis), and Case-Shiller composite 20 house prices (right axis, inverted).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

House prices are through August using the composite 20 index (a three month average of June, July and August). Months-of-supply is through September. The preliminary data indicates that months-of-supply was still in double digits in October.

This is one of the reasons I expect house prices to fall another 5% to 10% - and it looks like S&P is now forecasting about the same price declines.

Note: there have been periods with high months-of-supply and rising house prices (see: Lawler: Again on Existing Home Months’ Supply: What’s “Normal?” ) so this is just a guide.