by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2010 02:15:00 PM

The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate (ht Dirk).

Click on graph for larger image.

Most of the increase in the participation rate in the '60 and '70s was from women joining the labor force. However one of the key features of the current employment recession is the decline in the participation rate.

The sharplest declines in the participation rate are for the "16 to 19" and the "20 to 24" age groups.

The partcipation rate for the "16 to 19" group has fallen from 41.4% in Dec 2007 to 35.2% in Oct 2010.

The participation rate for the "20 to 24" group has fallen from 74.0% to 71.4% in the same period.

The participation rate for the "55 and over" group has increased from 38.9% to 40.0% since December 2007. Of course the size of the "55 and over" group is increasing, and that might be pushing down the overall participation rate. I'll have more on this later this week.

And a repeat of a popular graph ...

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).

The dotted line is ex-Census hiring. The two lines have joined since the decennial Census is over.

Best to all

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2010 10:30:00 AM

From the Atlanta Fed, here is a live webcast from Jekyll Island (Saturday 10:45AM ET).

Panelists will share personal insights and perspectives on the purpose, structure, and functions of the Federal Reserve System.

Panelist: Ben Bernanke, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Panelist: Alan Greenspan, Former Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Panelist: Gerald Corrigan, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs, and Former President, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Moderator: Raghuram Rajan, Professor of Finance, University of Chicago

Posts yesterday (Graphics Gallery, Employment report, Record Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO):

Graphics Gallery for Employment

October Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 9.6% Unemployment Rate

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Seasonal Retail Hiring off to fast start in October

Fannie, Freddie, FHA REO Inventory Increases 24% in Q3 from Q2 2010

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2010 09:08:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 5, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List remained unchanged this week at 894 as there were four additions and four removals. However, aggregate assets increased to $416.5 billion from $410.7 billion.

Removals this week are the failures that include K Bank, Randallstown, MD ($592 million); Pierce Commercial Bank, Tacoma, WA ($242 million); Western Commercial Bank, Woodland, CA ($111 million); and First Vietnamese American Bank, Westminster, CA ($52 million).

Additions this week are Superior Bank, Tampa, FL ($3.4 billion Ticker: SUPR); The Suffolk County National Bank of Riverhead, Riverhead, NY ($1.7 billion Ticker: SUBK); Essex Bank, Tappahannock, VA ($1.2 billion Ticker: BTC); and Community Central Bank, Mount Clemens, MI ($543 million Ticker: CCBD).

As always, thanks to surferdude808 for compiling this list!

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 09:22:00 PM

There were 140 failures in 2009. This makes 143 and counting in 2010 ...

Bair's valkyries ride
someday this war's gonna end
today is that day
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Grandpoint Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Vietnamese American Bank, Westminster, California

As of September 30, 2010, First Vietnamese American Bank had approximately $48.0 million in total assets and $47.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $9.6 million. ... First Vietnamese American Bank is the 143rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twelfth in California.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 08:22:00 PM

There were 140 failures in 2009. This makes 142 and counting in 2010 ...

Ben's bucket 'o bucks
Cataclysmic cash cloudburst
Poor panacea
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Heritage Bank, Olympia, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of Pierce Commercial Bank, Tacoma, Washington

As of September 30, 2010, Pierce Commercial Bank had approximately $221.1 million in total assets and $193.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $21.3 million. ... Pierce Commercial Bank is the 142nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Washington..

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 07:09:00 PM

There were 140 failures in 2009. This makes 141 in 2010 ...

Early Cali down.
Western Commercial Bank Fail
Why the rush, Sheila?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First California Bank, Westlake Village, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Western Commercial Bank, Woodland Hills, California

As of September 30, 2010, Western Commercial Bank had approximately $98.6 million in total assets and $101.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $25.2 million. ... Western Commercial Bank is the 141st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in California.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 06:47:00 PM

K Street Lobbyists
Plenipotentiaries
Could not save K Bank
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company (M&T Bank), Buffalo, New York, Assumes All of the Deposits of K Bank, Randallstown, Maryland

As of September 30, 2010, K Bank had approximately $538.3 million in total assets and $500.1 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $198.4 million. ... K Bank is the 140th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Maryland.

One down today ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 05:20:00 PM

The combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA increased by 24% at the end of Q3 2010 compared to Q2 2010. The REO inventory increased 92% compared to Q3 2009 (year-over-year comparison).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q3 2010.

The REO inventory for the "Fs" has increased sharply over the last year, from 153,007 at the end of Q3 2009 to a record 293,171 at the end of Q3 2010.

There are new records for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA REO inventory individually too.

Remember this is just a portion of the total REO inventory. Private label securities and banks and thrifts also hold a substantial number of REOs.

The REO inventory will probably increase sharply in Q4. From Fannie Mae today:

Given the large number of seriously delinquent loans in our single-family guaranty book of business and the large current and anticipated supply of single-family homes in the market, we expect it will take a number of years before our REO inventory approaches pre-2008levels.
...
Our expectation that the foreclosure pause will likely result in higher serious delinquency rates, longer foreclosure timelines, higher foreclosed property expenses, higher credit losses, higher credit-related expenses, and an increase in the number of REO properties we are unable to market for sale.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 02:21:00 PM

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers at about the pre-crisis pace in October.

Click on graph for larger image.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008 and modest rebound in 2009.

Retailers hired 150.9 thousand workers (NSA) net in October. This is about the same level as in 2003 through 2006. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted), retailers hired 28 thousand workers SA in October.

This suggests retailers are fairly optimistic about the holiday season.

Earlier employment posts:

October Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 9.6% Unemployment Rate

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Graphics Gallery for Employment

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2010 12:30:00 PM

Earlier employment posts:

October Employment Report: 151,000 Jobs, 9.6% Unemployment Rate

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Graphics Gallery for Employment

From the NAR:
Pending Home Sales Slip but Modest Recovery Expected in 2011

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator, slipped 1.8 percent to 80.9 based on contracts signed in September from an upwardly revised 82.4 in August. ... The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

August was revised up slightly from 82.3.

This suggests existing home sales in October and November might be slightly lower than in September and months-of-supply will probably still be in double digits putting downward pressure on house prices. As usual, I'll take the under on the NAR forecast for 2011 ("more than 5.1 million existing home sales" in 2011).