by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 10:45:00 AM

Just for fun ... in 1926, economist George Taylor suggested the "Hemline Index"; he observed that hemlines moved with stock prices.

And from the NY Times: A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini. Here is the hot new look:

Does that mean stocks are at a bottom, or that stocks are about to crash?

by Calculated Risk on 5/29/2010 08:49:00 AM

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 0.9 Percent in April

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased for the sixth time in the last seven months, gaining another 0.9 percent in April. This followed a 0.4 percent increase in March. The latest improvement put the SA index at 110.2 (2000=100), which is the highest level since September 2008. Over the last seven months, the tonnage index grew a total of 6.5 percent.

The not seasonally adjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled by the fleets before any seasonal adjustment, equaled 111.3 in April, down 4.4 percent from the previous month.

Compared with April 2009, SA tonnage surged 9.4 percent, which was the fifth consecutive year-over-year gain and the largest increase since January 2005. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6 percent compared with the same period in 2009.
...
“Tonnage is being boosted by robust manufacturing output and stronger retail sales.” [ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said] “For most fleets, freight volumes feel better than reported tonnage because the supply situation, particularly in the truckload sector, is turning quickly.”

This is the opposite of the report from Ceridian-UCLA that showed diesel fuel consumption down in April, although it might be a difference in the seasonal adjustment factors (NSA this report showed a 4.4% decline). Rail traffic was also up in April.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 11:55:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Spain Loses AAA Rating at Fitch as Europe Battles Debt Crisis

The euro declined to 1.2274 dollars on the news. The TED spread increased to 38.11. This is still fairly low, but has been increasing ... Note: This is the difference between the interbank rate for three month loans and the three month Treasury and is considered a measure of credit stress. The peak was 463 on Oct 10th and a normal spread is below 50 bps.

The BEA reported April Personal Income up 0.4%, Spending up slightly.

The Institute for Supply Management – Chicago reported the "CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER eased" and "EMPLOYMENT slipped below neutral". New orders were softer, and it appears the inventory adjustment is over.

The National Restaurant Association index decreased slightly, but still showed some expansion. Same store sales and customer traffic both showed declines in April.

And a few interesting articles:

From Bloomberg: New Home Sales Set to Plunge in Former Bubble Markets

From David Bracken at the Newobserver.com: Sales stop for Raleigh condo project

From the NY Times: Placing the Blame as Students Are Buried in Debt

And from the NY Times: BP Engineers Making Little Headway on Leaking Well

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 09:09:00 PM

Fiery twilight
Crepuscular Sun West Bank
Radiant, now dark
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: City National Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada

Sun West Bank, Las Vegas, Nevada, was closed today by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2010, Sun West Bank had approximately $360.7 million in total assets and $353.9 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $96.7 million. ... Sun West Bank is the 78th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Nevada. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, on February 26, 2010.

That makes five today ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 08:13:00 PM

Sisyphean task
Reinflating Granite Bank
Too much crushing debt.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC:

Granite Community Bank, N.A., Granite Bay, California, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2010, Granite Community Bank, N.A. had approximately $102.9 million in total assets and $94.2 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $17.3 million. ... Granite Community Bank, N.A. is the 77th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the sixth in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was 1st Pacific Bank of California, San Diego, on May 7, 2010.

Financed too many granite countertops?

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 05:38:00 PM

Bank of Florida
Reckless lending aftermath
Condo kingdom crash
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Everbank, Jacksonville, Florida, Acquires All the Deposits of Three Affiliated Florida Institutions

Bank of Florida – Southeast, Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Bank of Florida – Southwest, Naples, Florida; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, Tampa, Florida, were all closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. The three failed banks were owned by the same holding company, Bank of Florida Corporation, which was not part of this transaction.
...
As of March 31, 2010, Bank of Florida - Southeast had total assets of $595.3 million and total deposits of $531.7 million; Bank of Florida - Southwest had total assets of $640.9 million and total deposits of $559.9 million; and Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay had total assets of $245.2 million and total deposits of $224.0 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Bank of Florida - Southeast will be $71.4 million; for Bank of Florida - Southwest, $91.3 million; and for Bank of Florida – Tampa Bay, $40.3 million. ...The three closings bring the total number of failed banks in the nation so far this year to 76 and the total in Florida to 13. Prior to today, the last bank closed in the state was Bank of Bonifay, Bonifay, on May 7, 2010.

A quick three-fer ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 05:20:00 PM

There have been numerous reports of less small business lending. But it is unclear if this is because a lack of credit, or if the lower level of lending is because of less demand. A survey by the Atlanta Fed suggests that it is mostly a demand problem (especially excluding construction and real estate industries).

From Atlanta Fed senior economist Paula Tkac: How "discouraged" are small businesses? Insights from an Atlanta Fed small business lending survey

We at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta have ... begun a series of small business credit surveys. Leveraging the contacts in our Regional Economic Information Network (REIN), we polled 311 small businesses in the states of the Sixth District (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee) on their credit experiences and future plans. While the survey is not a stratified random sample and so should not be viewed as a statistical representation of small business firms in the Sixth District, we believe the results are informative.

Indeed, the results of our April 2010 survey suggest that demand-side factors may be the driving force behind lower levels of small business credit. To be sure, when asked about the recent obstacles to accessing credit, some firms (34 firms, or 11 percent of our sample) cited banks' unwillingness to lend, but many more firms cited factors that may reflect low credit quality on the part of prospective borrowers. For example, 32 percent of firms cited a decline in sales over the past two years as an obstacle, 19 percent cited a high level of outstanding business or personal debt, 10 percent cited a less than stellar credit score, and 112 firms (32 percent) report no recent obstacles to credit. Perhaps not surprisingly, outside of the troubled construction and real estate industries, close to half the firms polled (46 percent) do not believe there are any obstacles while only 9 percent report unwillingness on the part of banks.

This fits with comments from the National Federation of Independent Businesses that cited "poor sales" as the number one problem for small businesses.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 03:32:00 PM

This sounds so 2007 ... but it is today.

From David Bracken at the Newobserver.com: Sales stop for Raleigh condo project (ht dshort)

Hue, the multicolor building that is the largest condo project ever attempted in downtown Raleigh, closed its sales office without ever selling a unit.

Signs posted on the building's doors, as well as a message left on the sales office's answering machine, say Hue will be closed until further notice.
...
With its royal blue and mustard exterior, the 208-unit ... seven-story building across from the city administration building downtown replaced a parking lot and was considered a bold symbol of downtown Raleigh's revitalization.

So much for the "revitalization". This is part of the shadow inventory ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 12:41:00 PM

This is one of several industry specific indexes I track each month.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Same store sales and customer traffic both showed declines in April. This was more than offset by a postive outlook in the "expectations index" and the overall index showed expansion in April.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Note: Any reading above 100 shows expansion for this index.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Industry Outlook Remained Positive as the Restaurant Performance Index Stood Above 100 in April

[T]the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) ... was essentially unchanged from its previous month’s level; the RPI stood at 100.4 in April, down slightly from its March level of 100.5. RPI levels above 100 indicate expansion of key industry indicators.

“Although the sales and traffic indicators softened somewhat from their March performance, restaurant operators remain optimistic that business conditions will improve in the months ahead,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “In addition, restaurant operators reported a positive outlook for staffing gains, as well as continued plans for capital expenditures in the coming months.”
...
After reporting net positive same-store sales in March for the first time in 22 months, restaurant operators reported softer sales results in April.
...
Similarly, restaurant operators reported a net decline in customer traffic levels in April, after posting positive traffic results in March.
emphasis added

Restaurants are a discretionary expense, and they tend to be 'first in, last out' of a recession for consumer spending (as opposed to housing that is usually first in and first out). So far the recovery for restaurants has been sluggish, and operators will only stay optimistic if sales and traffic picks up.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2010 09:51:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management – Chicago:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER eased again, tempering the pace of its expansion while marking its eighth month of growth. All Business Activity indexes except EMPLOYMENT signaled expansion. ... EMPLOYMENT slipped below neutral for the first time in 2010.

The new orders index declined from April (65.2 to 62.7), and inventories increased sharply. Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.

This is similar to other regional reports: continued expansion, but at a slower pace. New orders are softer, and the inventory adjustment is over.

Especially concerning is the sharp decline in the employment index (from 57.2 to 49.2). The national ISM manufacturing index will be released next Tuesday.