by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2010 11:30:00 AM

I've started an archive of large images for most of the graphs posted on this blog. You can access the archive when you click on a graph (the larger image is part of the archive), or by clicking on "Graph Archive" in the menu bar.

A few examples - here are the most recent graphs for: housing starts, percent job losses during recessions, and New Home sales (NSA).

Note: The graphs are free to use on websites or for presentations. All I ask is that online sites link to my site, http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/, and printed presentations credit www.calculatedriskblog.com.

There are several methods to search for images.
1) There are tags at the bottom (like employment or housing starts)
2) There is an image archive at the bottom.
3) You can scroll through the images with the "Next" or "Back" buttons.

Suggestions? Enjoy!

by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2010 08:48:00 AM

First from Reuters yesterday: Consumer mood unexpectedly worse in early April

U.S. consumer sentiment took a surprise negative turn in early April due to a persistently grim outlook on income and jobs, a private survey released on Friday showed.
...
The surveys' overall index on consumer sentiments slipped to 69.5 in early April -- the lowest in five months. This was below the 73.6 reading seen at the end of March and the 75.0 median forecast of analysts polled by Reuters.

The article says "consumer sentiment is seen as a proxy for consumer spending", but I'm not sure. In 2005, Dr. Dean Croushore of University of Richmond argued consumer confidence is "essentially useless for forecasting Americans' spending patterns. ... consumer confidence just reflects the past. You lose your job, your confidence falls. There's not really anything new there."

Every time I see "consumer confidence", I think employment and gasoline prices ... and here are a couple of graphs to show the relationship:

NOTE: On the following graphs, the unemployment rate and gasoline prices are inverted since they are inversely correlated to confidence.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows consumer confidence and the unemployment rate (inverted).

There is a strong correlation, although it appears confidence leads the unemployment rate (probably because layoffs stop before the unemployment rate starts falling). Maybe a better graph would be monthly changes in employment vs. confidence (I'll look at that later).

The second graph shows consumer confidence and real gasoline prices (CPI adjusted).

Although there are periods when confidence doesn't track gasoline prices, it does appear there is a relationship.

So my guess is the weak confidence reading tells us what we already know - unemployment is high and gasoline prices are rising.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 10:45:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for April 16, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The closures this week and publication of actions issued by the OCC during March contributed to a large number of changes in the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week.

There were 25 institutions with assets of $8.7 billion added this week while 9 institutions with assets of $6.4 billion were removed. The net of this activity results in an Unofficial Problem Bank List that has 698 institutions with combined assets of $366.5 billion, up from 682 institutions with assets of $364.1 billion last week.

The Unofficial Problem Bank List has mostly closed the gap with the latest FDIC Official Problem Bank List that included 702 institutions. Notable among the 25additions are Far East National Bank, Los Angeles, CA ($2 billion); BNC National Bank, Phoenix, AZ ($867 million Ticker: BNCC.PK); First Community Bank, National Association, Lexington, SC ($605 million Ticker: FCCO); Citizens National Bank of Paintsville, Paintsville, IL ($582 million Ticker: CZNL.OB); and Golden Bank, National Association, Houston, TX ($507 million).

The removals include an action termination by the Federal Reserve against KCB Bank ($143 million), and the 8 failures -- Riverside National Bank of Florida ($3.4 billion), City Bank ($1.1 billion), Tamalpais Bank ($629 million), First Federal Bank of North Florida ($393 million), Innovative Bank ($269 million), Butler Bank ($268 million), AmericanFirst Bank ($90 million), and Lakeside Community Bank ($53 million).

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 09:28:00 PM

City Bank failure.
Not that one, nor that one...yet.
Not that one either.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Whidbey Island Bank, Coupeville, Washington, Assumes All Of The Deposits Of City Bank, Lynnwood, Washington

As of December 31, 2009, City Bank had approximately $1.13 billion in total assets and $1.02 billion in total deposits.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $323.4 million.... City Bank is the 50th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in Washington. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Rainier Pacific Bank, Tacoma, February 26, 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 08:50:00 PM

A dog eat dog world
Now banks eat banks nationwide.
Ms. Bair = Ms. PacMan?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Union Bank, National Association, San Francisco, California, Assumes All Of The Deposits Of Tamalpais Bank, San Rafael, California

As of December 31, 2009, Tamalpais Bank had approximately $628.9 million in total assets and $487.6 million in total deposits.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $81.1 million. ... Tamalpais Bank is the 49th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Innovative Bank, Oakland, earlier today.

This bank made some really bad CRE loans, see from David Johnson: When smart money said "no more," not-so-smart Marin bank loaned the Lembis $41 million.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 08:12:00 PM

Innovative Bank
Nothing's new under the sun
Same mistakes, same end.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Center Bank, Los Angeles, California, Assumes All Of The Deposits Of Innovative Bank, Oakland, California

As of December 31, 2009, Innovative Bank had approximately $268.9 million in total assets and $225.2 million in total deposits.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $37.8 million. ... Innovative Bank is the 48th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 3rd in California. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was La Jolla Bank, FSB, La Jolla, February 19, 2010.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 06:07:00 PM

Banks new built Rockies.
Soaring peaks of verdant green
All debt, I.O.U's.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: TD Bank, National Association, Wilmington, Delaware, Acquires All the Deposits of Three Florida Institutions

TD Bank, National Association (N.A.), Wilmington, Delaware, acquired the banking operations, including all the deposits, of three Florida-based institutions. ... AmericanFirst Bank, Clermont; First Federal Bank of North Florida, Palatka; and Riverside National Bank of Florida, Fort Pierce
...
As of December 31, 2009, AmericanFirst Bank had total assets of $90.5 million and total deposits of $81.9 million; First Federal Bank of North Florida had total assets of $393.3 million and total deposits of $324.2 million; and Riverside National Bank of Florida had total assets of $3.42 billion and total deposits of $2.76 billion.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for AmericanFirst Bank will be $10.5 million; for First Federal Bank of North Florida, $6.0 million; and for Riverside National Bank of Florida, 491.8 million.
...
These were the 44th, 45th, and 46th banks to fail in the nation this year, and the seventh, eighth, and ninth banks to close in Florida. Prior to these failures, the last bank closed in the state was Key West Bank, Key West, on March 26, 2010.

From the FDIC: People's United Bank, Bridgeport, Connecticut, Assumes All of the Deposits of Butler Bank, Lowell, Massachusetts

As of December 31, 2009, Butler Bank had approximately $268.0 million in total assets and $233.2 million in total deposits.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.9 million. .... Butler Bank is the 47th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Massachusetts. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Ludlow Savings Bank, Ludlow, October 21, 1994.

That makes 5 today.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 05:22:00 PM

East wind torques bamboo
Summer monsoons wreak havoc
Bankers devastate.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: FDIC Approves The Payout Of The Insured Deposits Of Lakeside Community Bank, Sterling Heights, Michigan

As of December 31, 2009, Lakeside Community Bank had approximately $53.0 million in total assets and $52.3 million in total deposits.
...
Lakeside Community Bank is the 43rd FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, and the first in Michigan. The last institution closed in the state was Citizens State Bank, New Baltimore, on December 18, 2009. The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $11.2 million

A small one to start the day ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 03:07:00 PM

From Amy Hoak at MarketWatch: End of road for home-buy credit

Two groups that once lobbied strongly for the credit -- the National Association of Realtors and the National Association of Home Builders -- have no plans to make a push for its extension, according to spokesmen from both groups. And the word from NAR's government-affairs department is that another extension isn't in the cards.

The first round of the homebuyer tax credit was widely criticized by economists as inefficient and misdirected. The tax credit went mostly to people who would have bought anyway - and it just provided an incentive for people to move from renting to owning without reducing the overall stock of housing units.

The evidence suggests the extension was even more costly and inefficient than the original credit. So no further extension is good news for the economy ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2010 11:31:00 AM

From the SEC: SEC Charges Goldman Sachs With Fraud in Structuring and Marketing of CDO Tied to Subprime Mortgages

The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Goldman, Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages as the U.S. housing market was beginning to falter.

The SEC alleges that Goldman Sachs structured and marketed a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO) that hinged on the performance of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). Goldman Sachs failed to disclose to investors vital information about the CDO, in particular the role that a major hedge fund played in the portfolio selection process and the fact that the hedge fund had taken a short position against the CDO.

"The product was new and complex but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," said Robert Khuzami, Director of the Division of Enforcement. "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party."
...
The SEC's complaint alleges that after participating in the portfolio selection, Paulson & Co. effectively shorted the RMBS portfolio it helped select by entering into credit default swaps (CDS) with Goldman Sachs to buy protection on specific layers of the ABACUS capital structure. Given that financial short interest, Paulson & Co. had an economic incentive to select RMBS that it expected to experience credit events in the near future. Goldman Sachs did not disclose Paulson & Co.'s short position or its role in the collateral selection process in the term sheet, flip book, offering memorandum, or other marketing materials provided to investors.