by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2010 11:49:00 AM

By request here is a graph of the number of banks on the unofficial problem bank list.

We started posting the Unofficial Problem Bank list in early August 2009 (credit: surferdude808). The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are not made public.

CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. Some of this data is released with a lag, for example the FDIC announced the January enforcement actions yesterday.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2010 08:33:00 AM

Here is Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders. The following is an excerpt on housing (Buffett focuses on manufactured housing because Berkshire owns Clayton Homes):

The [manufactured homes] industry is in shambles for two reasons, the first of which must be lived with if the U.S. economy is to recover. This reason concerns U.S. housing starts (including apartment units). In 2009, starts were 554,000, by far the lowest number in the 50 years for which we have data. Paradoxically, this is good news.

People thought it was good news a few years back when housing starts – the supply side of the picture – were running about two million annually. But household formations – the demand side – only amounted to about 1.2 million. After a few years of such imbalances, the country unsurprisingly ended up with far too many houses.

There were three ways to cure this overhang: (1) blow up a lot of houses, a tactic similar to the destruction of autos that occurred with the “cash-for-clunkers” program; (2) speed up household formations by, say, encouraging teenagers to cohabitate, a program not likely to suffer from a lack of volunteers or; (3) reduce new housing starts to a number far below the rate of household formations.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 11:11:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List underwent major changes during the week as aggregate assets for all institutions were updated to 2009q4 from 2009q3 and the FDIC finally released its enforcement actions issued during January 2010.

The list now includes 644 institutions, up from 617 last week, as 33 institutions with assets of $12 billion were added while 6 with assets of $1.3 billion were deleted. Despite the additions, aggregate assets fell from $329 billion to $326 billion. For the 616 institutions that stayed on the list from last week, their aggregate assets dropped $13.8 billion during the fourth quarter.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 09:12:00 PM

Ranier Pacific
Day of reckoning has come
As sun sets westward
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Umpqua Bank, Roseburg, Oregon, Assumes All of the Deposits of Rainier Pacific Bank, Tacoma, Washington

Rainier Pacific Bank, Tacoma, Washington, was closed today by the Washington Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver....

As of December 31, 2009, Rainier Pacific Bank had approximately $717.8 million in total assets and $446.2 million in total deposits. ...

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by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 08:06:00 PM

Cheap Nevada thrills
Bright lights! Fast Times! No Limits!
Woe, The taps gone dry.
by Soylent Green is People
From FDIC: Heritage Bank of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, Assumes All of the Deposits of Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, Nevada

Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, Nevada, was closed today by the Nevada Department of Business and Industry, Financial Institutions Division, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Carson River Community Bank had approximately $51.1 million in total assets and $50.0 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $7.9 million. ... Carson River Community Bank is the 21st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Nevada. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Community Bank of Nevada, August 14, 2009.

A small one ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 07:36:00 PM

Press Release: Fannie Mae Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2009 Results

Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $15.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 ... For the full year of 2009, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $72.0 billion...

The fourth-quarter loss resulted in a net worth deficit of $15.3 billion as of December 31, 2009, taking into account unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities during the fourth quarter. As a result, on February 25, 2010, the Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency submitted a request for $15.3 billion from Treasury on the company’s behalf. FHFA has requested that Treasury provide the funds on or prior to March 31, 2010.
...
Although there have been signs of stabilization in the housing market and economy, we expect that our credit-related expenses will remain high in the near term due in large part to the stress of high unemployment and underemployment on borrowers and the fact that many borrowers who owe more on their mortgagees than their houses are worth are defaulting.
...
We expect to have a net worth deficit in future periods, and therefore will be required to obtain additional funding from Treasury ...

I'm old enough to remember when $15 billion was a large number.

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 05:12:00 PM

Note: This index is based on year-over-year performance, and the headline index might be slow to recognize a pickup in business.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Performance Index Declines Slightly in January, But Optimism for Future Business Conditions Strengthens

[T]he Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) ... stood at 98.3 in January, down 0.3 percent from December’s level.

“Although the current situation indicators remained soft in January, the Expectations Index rose above 100 for the first time in 9 months,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “Restaurant operators are relatively optimistic about improving sales growth and economic conditions in the months ahead, and their capital spending plans rose to the highest level in five months.”

January’s mark of 98.3 represents the 27th consecutive month of an index below 100, which signifies contraction in the index of key industry indicators. The full report is available online.
...
The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 96.6 in January – down 0.8 percent from December. In addition, January represented the 29th consecutive month below 100, which signifies contraction in the current situation indicators.
...
Restaurant operators also reported softer customer traffic results in January. Twenty-six percent of restaurant operators reported an increase in customer traffic between January 2009 and January 2010, down from 30 percent who reported higher customer traffic in December. Fifty-four percent of operators reported a traffic decline in January, up from 47 percent who reported lower traffic in December.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 02:24:00 PM

Here is the monthly Freddie Mac hockey stick graph ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Freddie Mac reported that the rate of serious delinquencies - at least 90 days behind - for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 4.03% in January 2010, up from 3.87% in December - and up from 1.98% in January 2009.

"Single-family delinquencies are based on the number of mortgages 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end ..."

Just more evidence of the growing delinquency problem, although some of these loans may be in the trial modification programs and are still included as delinquent until they are converted to a "permanent mod". If the trial is cancelled, the loan stays delinquent (until foreclosure).

The data from Fannie Mae will be released later ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 01:29:00 PM

By request, here is a graph overlaying light vehicle sales and existing home sales - and showing the impact of "cash for clunkers" and the "first time home buyer" tax credit. (ht Brian)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The red line (left axis) is vehicle sales. The blue line (right axis) is existing home sales since Jan 2008. Both are in millions of units at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR).

The Cash for Clunkers program was effective on July 1, 2009, but didn't really start until near the end of July. The program was expanded in early August, and ended on August 24th.

The First Time Home Buyer tax credit was passed in February with an initial deadline to close on the home by November 30, 2009. The home buyer tax credit was extended and expanded at the end of October, and now buyers must sign a contract by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30, 2010.

There will probably be another surge in existing home sales in May and June (reported when sales close). And then sales will probably decline again.

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 11:07:00 AM

Earlier the NAR released the existing home sales data for January; here are a few more graphs ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2010 (see Red column for Jan 2010).

Sales (NSA) in January 2010 were 7% higher than in January 2009, and slightly lower than in January 2008.

The second graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through January. I jokingly refer to this as the "distressing gap".

The initial gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The recent spike in existing home sales was due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit.

The following graph shows the same information as a ratio - existing home sales divided by new home sales - through January 2010.

This ratio is just off from the all time high in November when existing home sales were artificially boosted by the first time home buyer tax credit.

Eventually this ratio will return to the historical range of around 6 existing home sales per new home sale. Right now this graph shows that the housing market is far from normal.