by Calculated Risk on 1/17/2010 12:51:00 AM

Here is the link to the Colbert video.

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
The Word - Honor Bound
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Economy

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 09:08:00 PM

Even with occupancy rates at record lows since the Great Depression, there are still a number of hotel projects being completed. It takes a number of years to build a new hotel, and all these projects were planned during the bubble years.

This has significant implications for non-residential investment and construction employment in 2010. As these large projects are completed, there will be more construction job losses, and less investment in non-residential structures.

And it definitely doesn't help the occupancy rate to have more rooms!

From the LA Times: New L.A. luxury hotels face tough debuts

The newest downtown hotel complex buzzed with activity this week as carpenters, electricians and gardeners hustled to put the finishing touches on the $970-million skyscraper that rises over the Los Angeles Convention Center and the L.A. Live entertainment center.

But when the glass-sheathed tower that houses the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels opens next month, it will face one of the worst slumps in years for the hospitality business.
...
In 2009, hotel revenues took their steepest decline in more than two decades, and the occupancy rate in Los Angeles now hovers at a meager 65%.
...
Other upscale hotels are also opening in Los Angeles under economic clouds this year, all aiming to survive the steep drop in demand.

The $360-million W Hollywood Hotel & Residences at the corner of Hollywood and Vine is scheduled to open Jan. 28.

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 06:21:00 PM

As a followup to my previous post, Professor Krugman points out that Q1 2002 GDP growth¹ was originally reported as 5.8% with rising unemployment. Good point.

Although Q1 2002 GDP growth was later revised down to 3.5%, it is another good example of a "GDP blip" driven by changes in inventory (inventory changes added 2.63% to the final 3.5%), with weak underlying demand (PCE was 1% in Q1 2002 - and stayed weak into 2003).

Krugman notes "at the time there was much unwarranted celebration (unemployment didn’t peak until summer 2003)."

I expect some unwarranted celebration this time too - and the unemployment rate to continue to increase.

Note: I don't have a crystal ball, but I'm not just being bearish - I called the 2nd half recovery in GDP pretty early and I've been consistently concerned about 2010.

¹GDP growth refers to the headline BEA number. That is the seasonally adjusted annualized real rate of GDP growth.

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 02:24:00 PM

In a research note released last night, Goldman Sachs raised their estimate of Q4 GDP from 4.0% to 5.8%. They cautioned that the "headline will be an eye-popper", but that this growth is mostly due to inventory changes: "More than two-thirds of our estimated increase comes from a sudden stabilization in inventories". They also noted "anything between 4½% and 7% is possible given the volatility of the inventory data".

The rest of the note cautions on 2010, and Goldman still sees sluggish growth of just under 2.0% with the unemployment rate peaking in early 2011.

This is what we've been discussing - GDP boosted by inventory changes in the 2nd half of 2009, followed by sluggish growth in 2010.

San Francisco Fed President described the impact of inventory changes back in September: The Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy

I expect the biggest source of expansion in the second half of this year to come from a diminished pace of inventory liquidation by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Such a pattern is typical of business cycles. Inventory investment often is the catalyst for economic recoveries. True, the boost is usually fairly short-lived, but it can be quite important in getting things going. ...

But what if this doesn't "get things going"?

When was the last time we saw 5%+ GDP growth, due mostly to inventory changes, and increasing unemployment? It was in Q1 1981.

The 1980 recession ended in Q3 1980, and inventory changes boosted Q4 GDP by 3.8%, and Q1 1981 GDP by an amazing 6.4%! However underlying demand remained weak (as defined by GDP ex-inventory changes, and PCE) as shown in the following table:

	1980-IV	1981-I	1981-II	2009-III	2009-IV1
GDP	7.6%	8.6%	-3.2%	2.2%	5.8%est
GDP ex-Inventory Changes	3.8%	2.2%	0.8%	1.5%	2.0%est
PCE	3.4%	1.5%	0.0%	2.0%	1.7%est
Change in Unemployment Rate	-0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%

Look at the blue period, and notice the boost in GDP from inventory changes in the Q4 1980, and Q1 1981. But PCE was only 1.5% in Q1 1980, and fell to 0.0% in Q2 1980. Since there was no pickup in underlying demand, the economy slid back into recession in July 1981.

Now the causes of the current recession are very different from the early '80s, but once again we are seeing a transitory boost from inventory changes and underlying demand remains weak. With the huge overhang of existing home inventory and record rental vacancies, and the ongoing repair of household balance sheets, I expect underlying demand to remain weak in 2010.

The blip in the 2nd half from inventory changes was expected, and I expect Q4 to be the best quarter for GDP for some time.

¹ Q4 2009 is estimated. GDP is from Goldman Sachs, and ex-inventory and PCE is from my own estimate.

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 10:57:00 AM

Jillayne Schlicke writes: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is Interviewing the Wrong People

If the Commission really does want to learn WHO knew what, when, then they’re interviewing the wrong people.

They need to interview the line workers. Mortgage loan processors, managers, escrow closers, underwriters from the banks, private mortgage insurance companies as well as wholesale lending, loan servicing default and loss mitigation workers and even consumers. Seasoned mortgage industry veterans who have proof in the form of saved memos or emails, that they informed senior management of the red flags, predatory lending, and the insane relaxation of underwriting guidelines that started to pop up as early as 2001 and 2002 yet were ignored or whose concerns were dismissed.

I think this is the key - instead of interviewing bank CEOs and top regulators, start with the field examiners and the "line workers" in the mortgage industry. And as Jillayne noted, talk to the consumers too.

by Calculated Risk on 1/16/2010 05:00:00 AM

From HUD: HUD takes action to speed resale of foreclosed properties to new owners (ht Soylent Green is People)

... With certain exceptions, FHA currently prohibits insuring a mortgage on a home owned by the seller for less than 90 days. This temporary waiver will give FHA borrowers access to a broader array of recently foreclosed properties.
...
In today's market, FHA research finds that acquiring, rehabilitating and the reselling these properties to prospective homeowners often takes less than 90 days. Prohibiting the use of FHA mortgage insurance for a subsequent resale within 90 days of acquisition adversely impacts the willingness of sellers to allow contracts from potential FHA buyers because they must consider holding costs and the risk of vandalism associated with allowing a property to sit vacant over a 90-day period of time.

The policy change will permit buyers to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD-owned properties, bank-owned properties, or properties resold through private sales. This will allow homes to resell as quickly as possible, helping to stabilize real estate prices and to revitalize neighborhoods and communities.
...
The waiver will take effect on February 1, 2010 and is effective for one year, unless otherwise extended or withdrawn by the FHA Commissioner. To protect FHA borrowers against predatory practices of "flipping" where properties are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers, this waiver is limited to those sales meeting the following general conditions:

•All transactions must be arms-length, with no identity of interest between the buyer and seller or other parties participating in the sales transaction.
•In cases in which the sales price of the property is 20 percent or more above the seller's acquisition cost, the waiver will only apply if the lender meets specific conditions.
•The waiver is limited to forward mortgages, and does not apply to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) for purchase program.

Specific conditions and other details of this new temporary policy are in the text of the waiver, available on HUD's website.

The title of the document is WaivPropFlip2010.pdf (probably stands for Waiver Property Flipper - aptly named)!

To be clear, this change isn't to help flippers buy - this change is to help homeowners to buy from flippers. Previously the flipper had to own the home for 90 days for the next buyer to obtain an FHA loan, now the period can be less. The 20% price increase is not a limit, however higher price increases require extra verification.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 11:59:00 PM

UPDATE: The trials modification period was originally 3 months, and then was extended to 5 months, and then extended to the end of January. This means that for the borrowers in the trial modification program, there will be no further extensions. For borrowers just entering the trial phase, they will have the normal three month period.

From the WSJ: Paperwork Woes Plague Mortgage Plan

The administration last month gave borrowers who were current on their payments after at least three months an extension until Jan. 31 to provide needed paperwork. But the administration doesn't plan to extend that deadline, Assistant Treasury Secretary Michael Barr said Friday.

"We are going to have further guidance for [mortgage] servicers at the end of the month," he said.

No extension, but "further guidance".

Unless something changes, distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) should start to increase in February. BofA's estimates the number ...

"of homes being taken back by Bank of America [will] range from 11,000 to 14,000 a month in the early part of this year to 29,000 to 35,000 by November and December, said John Ciresi, vice president and portfolio manager for Bank of America in Towson, Md.
...
The system became "clogged" by a voluntary moratorium on foreclosures while banks met the requirements of President Obama's Making Home Affordable mortgage plan program and by state legislation requiring mediation before banks can start the foreclosure process, Ciresi said ...

Bank of America is getting 40,000 new offers a month on short sales, or homes offered for less than the mortgage balance, Ciresi said."

Here comes the next wave of distressed sales, and based on the BofA estimates, the wave will build all year.

Here was an earlier post today: HAMP: 66,465 Permanent Mods

Here is the Press Release from Treasury: Administration Releases December Loan Modification Report, Update on Conversion Drive and the December HAMP report.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 09:30:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Since last week, the Unofficial Problem Bank List increased by a net 6 institutions to 582 and aggregate assets were virtually unchanged.

There was removal, which was the failed Horizon Bank ($1,3 billion). Seven institutions were added, with most being smaller national banks as the OCC released its actions for December 2009.

As suggested in the narrative last week, there were several national banks added back to list as the OCC replaced terminated Formal Agreements with Consent Orders. These add backs include First National Bank of Baldwin County, Foley, AL ($263 million); Capitol National Bank, Lansing, MI ($229 million); and First National Bank of Wyoming, Laramie, WY ($218 million.

The only other modification was a Prompt Corrective Action order issued by the Federal Reserve against Old Southern Bank, Orlando, FL ($384 million).

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)



Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 08:03:00 PM

Hope, Change, have vanished
Crestfallen bank expiring
Mortally wounded
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: FDIC Creates a Deposit Insurance National Bank of Kaysville, Utah to Protect Insured

Depositors of Barnes Banking Company, Kaysville, Utah
Barnes Banking Company, Kaysville, Utah, was closed today by the Utah Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ....

The FDIC will mail checks directly to customers with CDs and IRAs. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Barnes Banking Company had $827.8 million in total assets and $786.5 million in total deposits. ...

The cost to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund is estimated to be $271.3 million. Barnes Banking Company is the fourth bank to fail this year and the first in Utah. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was America West Bank, Layton, on May 1, 2009.

No one wanted this one.

by Calculated Risk on 1/15/2010 07:11:00 PM

Thinking all is well
Whistling past the graveyard
Our first Friday FAIL
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First American Bank, Elk Grove Village, Illinois Assumes All of the Deposits of Town Community Bank and Trust, Antioch, Illinois

Town Community Bank and Trust, Antioch, Illinois, was closed today by the Illinois Department of Financial Professional Regulation, Division of Banking, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, Town Community Bank and Trust had approximately $69.6 million in total assets and $67.4 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $17.8 million. ... Town Community Bank and Trust is the second FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Independent Bankers' Bank, Springfield, on December 18, 2009.

From the FDIC: First State Bank of St. Joseph, St. Joseph, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, Minnesota

St. Stephen State Bank, St. Stephen, Minnesota, was closed today by the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of September 30, 2009, St. Stephen State Bank had approximately $24.7 million in total assets and $23.4 million in total deposits. First State Bank of St. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $7.2 million.... St. Stephen State Bank is the third FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Minnesota. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Prosperan Bank, Oakdale, on November 6, 2009.

They may be small, but they count!