by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2009 09:15:00 AM

The Federal Reserve reported:

Industrial production increased 0.5 percent in July. Aside from a hurricane-related rebound in October 2008, the gain in July marked the first monthly increase since December 2007. Manufacturing output advanced 1.0 percent in July; most of the increase was due to a jump in motor vehicle assemblies from an annual rate of 4.1 million units in June to 5.9 million units in July. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing production edged up 0.2 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.4 percent, reflecting unseasonably mild temperatures in July, and the output of mines increased 0.8 percent. At 96.0 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 13.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. In July, the capacity utilization rate for total industry edged up to 68.5 percent, a level 12.4 percentage points below its 1972-2008 average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up slightly from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967). Capacity Utilization had decreased in 17 of the previous 18 months.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Much of the increase in industrial production was auto related. Also, there is little reason for investment in new production facilities until capacity utilization recovers.

by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2009 08:34:00 AM

From the BLS: Consumer Price Index Summary

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in July following a 0.7 percent increase in June ... The index for all items less food and energy [Core] rose 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2 percent increase in June.
...
The index for shelter fell 0.2 percent and the household energy index declined 0.3 percent. Within the shelter group, the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent were both unchanged in July after rising 0.1 percent in June. The index for lodging away from home turned down in July, falling 2.1 percent after increasing 0.3 percent in June, and has fallen 8.9 percent over the past 12 months.

Not only is the index for lodging off sharply, but the BLS measures for rent declined slightly (rounded to flat). Owners' equivalent rent (OER) is the largest component of CPI, and even though rents have been falling in most areas, OER was still increasing. The decline in July OER was very small, but it is a start.

Over the last 12 months, CPI has fallen 2.1 percent, the largest 12 month decline since 1950.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 10:36:00 PM

Form Bloomberg: Bank of America Wins Order on Colonial Bank Assets

U.S. District Judge Adalberto Jordan in Miami issued the order after Bank of America sued Colonial yesterday in Miami, claiming Colonial is holding the cash and loans as a custodian for Ocala Funding Inc. The order notes that the suit relates to more than 6,000 mortgages worth more than $1 billion.

“To the extent that the interests of the public are implicated in this case, they weigh in favor of requiring Colonial to honor its contractual obligations and avoiding what would amount to a $1 billion heist,” the judge said in an order posted online today.

In another action, from Ocala.com: Judge ties up over $4 million in Taylor Bean account

[Henley Holdings LLC] filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida, accusing Taylor Bean of breach of contract. It also sought temporary injunctive relief, asking the court to force Taylor Bean to immediately deposit the $4.7 million into an account at a separate bank.

Henley was worried because Taylor Bean had essentially shut its doors, and because if Colonial failed, only $250,000 of Henley money would be covered by FDIC insurance.

That same day, a federal judge granted Henley's request and ordered at least $4.4 million of the company's funds put into an interest-bearing account within the court registry.

Court records show that Taylor Bean turned over that amount the next day.

What is interesting about the second action is that apparently Colonial Bank disclosed a new FDIC Cease & Desist order dated Aug. 11th. I'm told the FDIC order instructs Colonial to obtain FDIC approval for most activities, requires "prompt and unrestricted access" to all bank documents and employees, and requires proceduces to prevent the destruction of any bank documents.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 08:50:00 PM

In early April, a Homeowner Protection Act was signed into law in Illinois that delayed foreclosures for a short period. Foreclosure filings plummeted for a couple of months, but filings are now increasing again.

From the Chicago Tribune: Foreclosure actions delayed in spring move into system in summer

Initial notices of default, the first legal step in the foreclosure process, dropped substantially in the six-county Chicago area during the past three months, largely because of a 70 percent drop in filings over a 30-day period begun in early April, according to a midyear report from Chicago-based think tank Woodstock Institute. However, foreclosure efforts appear to again be on the rise.

In April, default notices were recorded on 5,539 homes in the Chicago area. After plummeting to 1,694 notices in May, default filings rose to 3,468 in June, Woodstock found.
...
Woodstock's data also shows that lower-income areas continue to have a higher raw number of foreclosures, but more-affluent areas are posting the bigger percentage gains in foreclosure activity. ...

Last month [according to RealtyTrac], 14,524 Illinois properties, 35 percent more than in June, received notices of initial default, sheriff sale and bank repossessions. During July, 6,770 Illinois homeowners were served with initial notices of default. That compares with 3,648 default notices in June, 3,139 notices in May and 6,407 notices in April. Bank repossessions, which increase the number of foreclosed homes for sale, also jumped. Lenders repossessed 3,700 Illinois homes last month.

The low end areas will always have the most foreclosures, but foreclosure activity is picking up in the mid-to-high end areas. But where will the buyers come from in the mid-to-high end areas?

First time buyers in affluent areas? I don't think so.

Investors looking for cash flow? The number don't work.

Move-up buyers selling their homes? A large number of sellers at the low-to-mid end are lenders ...

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 06:05:00 PM

The First American CoreLogic Negative Equity Report for June 2009 is available on line. You have to sign up to read the report.

More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. June’s negative equity share was slightly lower than the 32.5 percent as of the end of March 2009 and it reflects the recent flattening of monthly home price changes. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity and negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.

The aggregate property value for loans in a negative equity position was $3.4 trillion, which represents the total property value at risk of default. In California, the aggregate value of homes that are in negative equity was $969 billion, followed by Florida ($432 billion), New Jersey ($146 billion), Illinois ($146 billion) and Arizona ($140 billion). Los Angeles had over $310 billion in aggregate property value in a negative equity position, followed by New York ($183 billion), Miami ($152 billion), Washington DC ($149 billion) and Chicago ($134 billion).

... Nevada (66 percent) had the highest percentage with nearly two‐thirds of mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. In Arizona (51 percent) and Florida (49 percent), half of all mortgage borrowers were in a negative equity position. Michigan (48 percent) and California (42 percent) round out the top five states.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the percent of households with mortgages underwater by state (and near negative equity defined as with less than 5% equity).

UPDATE: States with no data from CoreLogic: Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming.

The high population states of California and Florida account for almost 35% of all borrowers underwater, but this graph shows the problem is widespread.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 04:28:00 PM

Update: Actual statement from Chiang: " ... to stop issuing IOUs on September 4, almost one month earlier than expected. ... the Controller will ask the board to approve a redemption date of September 4, which is almost one month earlier than the October 2 maturity date printed on the IOUs."

From Tom Petruno at the LA Times: California plans to pay off IOUs beginning Sept. 4

California expects to begin redeeming outstanding IOUs on Sept. 4, a month earlier than expected, thanks to cash savings from budget cuts, state Controller John Chiang announced today.

He said the state also will need $10.5 billion in short-term loans from investors to get through the fiscal year ending next June 30.
...
The borrowing plan and the savings from the slashed state budget "should provide sufficient cash to meet all of California’s payment obligations through the fiscal year," Chiang said in a statement.

And by popular request ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Instead of comparing the markets from the peak (See: the Four Bad Bears), Doug Short matched up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 01:51:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR reports US performance for week ending 8 August 2009

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 7.5 percent to end the week at 65.9 percent. Average daily rate dropped 9.7 percent to finish the week at US$97.32. Revenue per available room for the week decreased 16.5 percent to finish at US$64.10.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 7.3% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 9.7%, and RevPAR is off 16.5% from the same week last year.

Comments: This is a multi-year slump. Although the occupancy rate was off 7.5 percent compared to last year, the occupancy rate is off about 11 percent compared to the same week in 2007.

As I noted last week, the end of July and beginning of August is the peak leisure travel period. The peak occupancy rate for 2009 was probably three weeks ago at 67%.

And that is far below normal ... and it is all downhill from here for the rest of the year.

Note: Graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Business travel is off much more than leisure travel, so the summer months are not as weak as other times of the year. September will be the real test for business travel.

Meanwhile supply is still growing at about 3% this year, see here:

STR projects that at the end of 2009, supply will be up 3.0 percent, demand will be down 5.5 percent, occupancy will decline 8.4 percent, average daily rate will drop 9.7 percent, and revenue per available room will be down 17.1 percent.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 11:31:00 AM

From Reuters: Bank of America sues Colonial for $1 bln in loans, cash

Bank of America Corp sued Colonial BancGroup Inc for more than $1 billion in loans and cash ... Bank of America, which was the collateral agent for certain loans of Ocala Funding LLC, said Colonial refused to return more than $1 billion of loans and cash which it held as a custodian, agent and bailee. Ocala Funding was a commercial paper vehicle sponsored by Taylor, Bean & Whitaker Mortgage Corp (TBW)....

Bank of America sought an emergency injunctive relief in a complaint filed with a U.S. federal court in Florida on Wednesday. ... The case is In re : Bank of America National Association vs Colonial Bank and John Doe, U.S. District Court, Southern District of Florida, Miami Division 1:09-cv-22384-AJ.

It appears the FDIC is doing a little housekeeping (SEC 8-K filing):

Colonial Bank ... received notice on August 10, 2009 from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ... directing CBG Florida REIT Corp., an indirect subsidiary of the Bank, to exchange all outstanding shares of its Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Class A, Series A ... for an equal amount of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-cumulative Preferred Stock, Series A of BancGroup

Colonial appears to be in tatters, and my guess is the FDIC will seize the bank, before they find a buyer for the assets, and operate the bank as conservator. (like with IndyMac last year).

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 10:09:00 AM

From RealtyTrac:

RealtyTrac ... today released its July 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report™, which shows foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions — were reported on 360,149 U.S. properties during the month, an increase of nearly 7 percent from the previous month and an increase of 32 percent from July 2008. The report also shows that one in every 355 U.S. housing units received a foreclosure filing in July.

“July marks the third time in the last five months where we’ve seen a new record set for foreclosure activity,” noted James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Despite continued efforts by the federal government and state governments to patch together a safety net for distressed homeowners, we’re seeing significant growth in both the initial notices of default and in the bank repossessions.”

Something to remember: questions have been raised before about the RealtyTrac numbers (see Foreclosure numbers don’t add up), and RealtyTrac has only been tracking these numbers since 2005. For California, I use the DataQuick numbers for NOD activity (released quarterly), and available since the early '90s - but that is just one state.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2009 08:31:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.1% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales are off 8.3% from July 2008 (retail ex food services decreased 9.3%).

The following graph shows the year-over-year change in nominal and real retail sales since 1993.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

To calculate the real change, the monthly PCE price index from the BEA was used (July PCE prices were estimated as the average increase over the previous 3 months).

Real retail sales declined by 8.4% on a YoY basis.

The second graph shows real retail sales (adjusted with PCE) since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: The graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

This shows that retail sales fell off a cliff in late 2008, and may have bottomed - but at a much lower level.

Here is the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.3 billion, a decrease of 0.1 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 8.3 percent (±0.7%) below July 2008. Total sales for the May through July 2009 period were down 9.0 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2009 percent change was revised from +0.6 percent (±0.5%) to +0.8 percent (±0.2%).

Maybe the cliff diving is over, but retail sales are still at the bottom of the cliff ...