by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2009 12:55:00 PM

Update: Bob_in_MA points to Evans' forecast in Oct 2007: recovery in 2008 and concerned about inflation.

From Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: Nontraditional Monetary Policy and the Economic Outlook

Here is an excerpt of the economic outlook:

... there have been some favorable developments of late, and the possibility that the economy is closer to a turning point is stronger now than just three months ago. Although the data have been uneven, our reading of the recent indicators is that the pace of contraction is slowing and that activity is bottoming out. We expect modest increases in output in the second half of this year followed by somewhat stronger growth in 2010.

So what are these signs of improvement that underlie this forecast? First, financial market conditions have improved, with credit spreads and other measures of market stress much lower than they were in late 2008 and early 2009.

Consumer spending, which had dropped sharply since the second half of last year, has been roughly flat so far in 2009. Housing markets, after more than three years of decline, have also shown some signs of stabilizing. Sales of both new and existing homes have appeared to flatten out in recent months, though both remain at very low levels. Meanwhile, homebuilders have reduced their backlog of unsold new homes—a precondition for any recovery in homebuilding. But the backlog of unsold existing homes remains high, and delinquency and foreclosure rates continue to be a substantial risk to the housing market recovery.

Labor markets remain weak, but there has been a (somewhat uneven) decline in the pace of job losses. The May and June average of monthly declines in employment was about half the rate of contraction as the beginning of this year, and newly filed jobless claims seem to have peaked in late March. However, firms are still reluctant to hire, and the unemployment rate reached 9-1/2 percent in June and will likely further increase through the remainder of the year before it flattens out in 2010.

The industrial side of the economy has been especially hard hit this year, but there are signs that the worst of the decline in the sector is in the past. Business fixed investment remains weak, but the decline is getting shallower. Steep inventory liquidations made significant negative contributions to output growth in late 2008 and early 2009. But this means that inventories are in better alignment with sales, so we expect to see less dramatic liquidation in the months ahead. In turn, the smaller declines translate into a net positive for GDP growth. Finally, in the coming months, the fiscal stimulus will continue to have positive influences on the economy.
emphasis added

I'm not sure why some people keep repeating that existing home sales are at "very low levels". Actually existing home sales are at normal levels, although there is a very high level of distressed sales.

Once again Evans discussed unwinding the Fed's balance sheet and he is somewhat concerned about inflation (Evans is a voting member of the FOMC):

Currently, core inflation is near 2 percent, a level I generally find acceptable. In the near term, I think the downward forces on inflation will be greater than the upward forces, and we could see some declines in core inflation. But over the medium term I see the risks to the inflation forecast as being more balanced.

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2009 10:27:00 AM

The FBI released their 2008 Mortgage Fraud Report today. (ht Bob_in_MA)

Mortgage fraud trends in 2008 reflected the overall downturn in the US economy ... the mortgage loan industry reported a spike in foreclosures and defaults; and financial markets continued to contract, diminishing credit to financial institutions, businesses, and homeowners. These combined factors uncovered and fueled a rampant mortgage fraud climate fraught with opportunistic participants desperate to maintain or increase their current standard of living. Industry employees sought to maintain the high standard of living they enjoyed during the boom years of the real estate market and overextended mortgage holders were often desperate to reduce or eliminate their bloated mortgage payments.

Mortgage fraud continues to be an escalating problem in the United States and a contributing factor to the billions of dollars in losses in the mortgage industry.
emphasis added

Committing fraud to "maintain their high standard of living" ... hopefully these guys will enjoy some free state accomodations for a few years.

There is some state specific data and some discussion of some common schemes. Here are a few (there is much more detail in the report):

Builder-Bailout Schemes: Builders are employing builder-bailout schemes to offset losses, and circumvent excessive debt and potential bankruptcy, as home sales suffer from escalating foreclosures, rising inventory, and declining demand. Builder-bailout schemes are common in any distressed real estate market and typically consist of builders offering excessive incentives to buyers, which are not disclosed on the mortgage loan documents. Builder-bailout schemes often occur when a builder or developer experiences difficulty selling their inventory and uses fraudulent means to unload it. In a common scenario, the builder has difficulty selling property and offers an incentive of a mortgage with no down payment. For example, a builder wishes to sell a property for $200,000. He inflates the value of the property to $240,000 and finds a buyer. The lender funds a mortgage loan of $200,000 believing that $40,000 was paid to the builder, thus creating home equity. However, the lender is actually funding 100 percent of the home’s value. The builder acquires $200,000 from the sale of the home, pays off his building costs, forgives the buyer’s $40,000 down payment, and keeps any profits. If the home forecloses, the lender has no equity in the home and must pay foreclosure expenses.

Short-Sale Schemes: Short-sale schemes are desirable to mortgage fraud perpetrators because they do not have to competitively bid on the properties they purchase, as they do for foreclosure sales. Perpetrators also use short sales to recycle properties for future mortgage fraud schemes. Short-sale fraud schemes are difficult to detect since the lender agrees to the transaction, and the incident is not reported to internal bank investigators or the authorities. As such, the extent of short sale fraud nationwide is unknown. A real estate short sale is a type of pre-foreclosure sale in which the lender agrees to sell a property for less than the mortgage owed. In a typical short sale scheme, the perpetrator uses a straw buyer to purchase a home for the purpose of defaulting on the mortgage. The mortgage is secured with fraudulent documentation and information regarding the straw buyer. Payments are not made on the property loan causing the mortgage to default. Prior to the foreclosure sale, the perpetrator offers to purchase the property from the lender in a short-sale agreement. The lender agrees without knowing that the short sale was premeditated. The mortgage owed on the property often equals or exceeds 100 percent of the property’s equity.

Foreclosure Rescue Schemes: Foreclosure rescue schemes are often used in association with advance fee/loan modification program schemes. The perpetrators convince homeowners that they can save their homes from foreclosure through deed transfers and the payment of up-front fees. This “foreclosure rescue” often involves a manipulated deed process that results in the preparation of forged deeds. In extreme instances, perpetrators may sell the home or secure a second loan without the homeowners’ knowledge, stripping the property’s equity for personal enrichment.

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2009 08:51:00 AM

The MBA reports:

This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, was 493.1, an increase of 10.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from 444.8 one week earlier.
...
The Refinance Index increased 15.2 percent to 1707.7 from 1482.2 the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.7 percent to 285.6 from 267.7 one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 5.34 percent ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 2002.

Note: The increase in 2007 was due to the method used to construct the index: a combination of lender failures, and borrowers filing multiple applications pushed up the index in 2007, even though activity was actually declining.

The Purchase index has moved some above the recent lows, but the big story is the Refinance index - the index had declined sharply in recent weeks as mortgage rates increased, but the index was up this week.

by Calculated Risk on 7/08/2009 12:56:00 AM

From Reuters: U.S. apartment vacancies near historic high: report

The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments reached its highest level in more than 20 years...

The national vacancy rate rose to 7.5 percent ... The record high was 7.8 percent in 1986.

"We are reaching that historic high very quickly," said Victor Calanog, Reis director of research.

... effective rent was down 1.9 percent from the prior year and 0.9 percent from the first quarter to $975, Reis said.

... "With general expectations of an economic recovery pushed back to early 2010 at the earliest, it seems likely that apartments will have to endure a few more quarters of distress, lower rents and higher vacancies," Calanog said.

Note: the Reis numbers are for cities. The overall vacancy rate from the Census Bureau was at 10.1% in Q1 2009. This fits with the NMHC apartment market survey.

Rising vacancies. Falling Rents. This time for apartments ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 09:00:00 PM

From Peter Hong at the LA Times: L.A. County's May default rate double last year

May's 9.5% [seriously] delinquency rate [more than 90 days] for L.A. County was up from 5% of mortgages ... in May 2008 [First American CoreLogic reported today].

... the final foreclosure stage -- has shrunk. In May, the L.A. County repossession rate was down to 1% of mortgages, from 1.1% a year ago. This discrepancy is the "foreclosure backlog" now looming over the housing market. ...

Nationally, First American reported 6.5% of mortgages were in default in May, up from 4% in May 2008. The national repossession rate was 0.7% in May, up from 0.6% in May 2007.

Ramsey Su (REO broker in San Diego) sent me some data today. He wrote:

[Pent Up Foreclosures - a stat Ramsey follows] measures the difference between foreclosures completed versus defaults. This gap is widening as a result of government intervention. ... If they do not ACCELERATE the foreclosure process and release some of the pressure now, the consequences will be disastrous.

The foreclosures are coming. The foreclosures are coming!

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 06:32:00 PM

This is an interesting interview from early this morning with Bryan Marsal, CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings, who is unwinding Lehman Brothers ... especially at the 18 minute mark:

One of my partners said yesterday that we are going to call this phase the "extend and pretend" phase in our economy. Which is you extend someone's maturity - because they are going to default - and you pretend that business will come back or that leverage factor is going to come back.

Then we'll enter phase two, which he said is the request to extend or "amend".

Then "send". In other words send the keys.

That is the phases we are in right now. Everyone is trying to buy time, as opposed to dealing with the leverage, they are trying to buy time. Whether you are a banker or a company, they are all trying to buy time. I don't see the leverage coming back, and I don't see the consumption of good and services coming back.
Bryan Marsal, CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings.

This applies to all kinds of debt - extend and pretend - that sounds like most of the residential loan modifications! But eventually many of those same loans will reach the "send" phase.

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 03:54:00 PM

First, the market was off about 2% today ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

And from Bloomberg: Deutsche Bank to Sell New York Tower for $605 Million (ht Brad, Brian)

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s largest bank, plans to sell Manhattan’s Worldwide Plaza to ... RCG Longview and George Comfort & Sons ... for about $605 million ...

Deutsche Bank is selling the last of seven buildings it seized from developer Harry Macklowe. He paid $1.74 billion for the 1.75 million square-foot property in February 2007, according to Real Capital Analytics Inc. data. Manhattan office building prices have dropped 30 percent to 50 percent since the peak in 2007, according to Woody Heller, head of the capital transactions group at Studley, a New York-based brokerage. Heller wasn’t involved in the transaction.

...The 47-story building will have more than 700,000 square- feet of vacant space with the expected departure of advertising and public relations firm Ogilvy & Mather.

More like 65% off, but all that vacant space was probably a huge factor.

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 02:33:00 PM

Last night Reis reported that the U.S. office vacancy rate hits 15.9 percent in Q2. (See Reis: U.S. Office Vacancy Rate Hits 15.9% in Q2 for a graph).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate vs. the quarterly unemployment rate and recessions.

The unemployment rate and the office vacancy rate tend to move in the same direction - and the peaks and troughs mostly line up.

As the unemployment rate continues to rise over the next year or more, the office vacancy rate will probably rise too. Reis' forecast is for the office vacancy rate to peak at 18.2 percent in 2010, and for rents to continue to decline through 2011.

One of the questions is why - given 9.5% unemployment - the office vacancy rate isn't even higher? This is probably a combination of less overbuilding as compared to the S&L related overbuilding in the '80s, and the tech bubble overbuilding a few years ago. And possibly because a higher percentage of construction, manufacturing and retail workers (non-office workers) have lost their jobs in the recession (I'll have to check that).

Note: Hotel and retail structure investment were off the charts during the recent boom, but office investment was somewhat muted in comparison ...

The second graph shows office investment as a percent of GDP since 1972 through Q1 2009. Office investment peaked in Q3 2008, and with the office vacancy rate rising sharply, office investment will probably decline at least through 2010.

Note: In 1997, the Bureau of Economic Analysis changed the office category. In the earlier years, offices included medical offices. After '97, medical offices were not included (The BEA presented the data both ways in '97).

There is still too much space coming online. From Reuters:

During the second quarter, office space coming on the market topped rented space by about 20 million square feet, slightly less than the 25.2 million square feet in the first quarter.

Year-to-date, 45.2 million more square feet came onto the market than was rented, in line with Reis' projection of about 67.6 million square feet for all of 2009.

If the projection holds true, 2009 will be the worst year for net absorption of office space since Reis began tracking it in 1980.

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 12:21:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow: Industry enters 20th month of recession

Economic research firm e-forecasting.com, in conjunction with Smith Travel Research, announced HIP edged down 0.7 percent in June, following a decline of 1.2 percent in May. HIP, the Hotel Industry’s Pulse index, is a composite indicator that gauges business activity in the U.S. hotel industry in real-time. The latest decrease brought the index to a reading of 82.5. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000.
...
“This recession continues to drag out, just one month shy of matching the longest one the industry felt back in May ’81 to January ’83, which lasted 21 months,” said Maria Simos, CEO of e-forecasting.com

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

And a quote from The Arizona Republic: Resorts suffer financial strains (ht Jonathan)

Richard Warnick of Warnick & Co. said he'd be surprised if nearly all hotels and resorts, here and across the country, weren't in technical default on their loans, falling below required minimums on debt service coverage, for example, given the sad state of travel. That is often a precursor to more serious financial problems that prompt lenders to foreclose.
...
He and others say hotels have committed economic suicide by slashing rates to levels not seen even in the aftermath of 9/11, and many are concerned it will take years to get back to "normal," or at least the new normal.

Actually the hotel industry has "committed economic suicide" by overbuilding and taking on too much debt.

Smith Travel Research is now forecasting RevPAR (revenue per available room) off 17.1% this year and declining another 3.7% next year.

by Calculated Risk on 7/07/2009 11:04:00 AM

From the WSJ: Big Banks Don't Want California's IOUs

A group of the biggest U.S. banks said they would stop accepting California's IOUs on Friday ... if California continues to issue the IOUs, creditors will be forced to hold on to them until they mature on Oct. 2, or find other banks to honor them.
...
The group of banks included Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., among others.

I guess the banks don't think the 3.75% annual interest rate is worth the risk for a "BBB" rated debtor on the Rating Watch Negative list.