by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 07:28:00 PM

Metro Pacific
Local to CR, Soylent
Big Irvine implode.
Event: Horizon
Debt, Destruction, De-Leverage
A cliff dive too far.
both by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Stearns Bank, National Association, St. Cloud, Minnesota, Assumes All of the Deposits of Horizon Bank, Pine City, Minnesota

Horizon Bank, Pine City, Minnesota, was closed today by the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2009, Horizon Bank had total assets of $87.6 million and total deposits of approximately $69.4 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $33.5 million. Stearns Bank's, N.A. acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. Horizon Bank is the 43rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Minnesota.

From the FDIC: Sunwest Bank, Tustin, California, Assumes All of the Deposits of MetroPacific Bank, Irvine, California

MetroPacific Bank, Irvine, California was closed today by the California Department of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of June 8, 2009, MetroPacific Bank had total assets of $80 million and total deposits of approximately $73 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $29 million. Sunwest Bank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. MetroPacific is the 44th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in California.

Four down today ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 06:28:00 PM

Former Rebel State
Fertile soil for bank failure
Bumper crop this year.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: CharterBank, West Point, Georgia Assumes All of the Deposits of Neighborhood Community Bank, Newnan, Georgia

Neighborhood Community Bank, Newnan, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of March 31, 2009, Neighborhood Community Bank had total assets of $221.6 million and total deposits of approximately $191.3 million. ...

The FDIC and CharterBank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $178.5 million of Neighborhood Community Bank's assets. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $66.7 million. CharterBank's acquisition of all the deposits was the "least costly" resolution for the FDIC's DIF compared to alternatives. Neighborhood Community Bank is the 42nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year

Newnan ... (or "Noonan") ... for you Caddyshack fans.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 05:46:00 PM

Summer break arrives
Zero rest for the wicked,
Neither for Blair's crew.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: FDIC Approves the Payout of Insured Deposits of Community Bank of West Georgia, Villa Rica, Georgia

Community Bank of West Georgia, Villa Rica, Georgia, was closed today by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance, which appointed the FDIC as receiver. To protect the depositors, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will mail checks to insured depositors for their insured funds on Monday morning, June 29th.
...
As of May 15, 2009, Community Bank of West Georgia had total assets of $199.4 million and total deposits of $182.5 million.
...
The FDIC estimates the cost of the failure to its Deposit Insurance Fund to be approximately $85 million. Community Bank of West Georgia is the 41st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eighth in Georgia.

This is another closing without a buyer - I think the third this year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 03:32:00 PM

From Bloomberg: JPMorgan, Citigroup Expand in ‘Jumbo’ Home Mortgages

JPMorgan resumed buying new jumbo loans made by other lenders this month, after halting purchases in March, spokesman Tom Kelly said. ... Citigroup is again offering the loans through independent mortgage brokers, spokesman Mark Rodgers said.
...
New jumbo lending, which includes refinancing as well as debt for home buyers, totaled $348 billion in 2007, before dropping to $98 billion last year as mortgage companies tightened standards, according to newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance. Jumbo lending slowed in the fourth quarter to $11 billion, or 4 percent of the mortgage market, the lowest quarterly amount since Inside Mortgage Finance started tracking that data in 1990.
...
Bank of America Corp. was the largest jumbo lender in the first quarter, with almost $9 billion in new loans, followed by Citigroup ...

More than 7 percent of prime-jumbo loans backing securities sold in 2006 and 2007 were at least 90 days late, Standard & Poor’s said yesterday.

This will help a little - but the standards are pretty tight and there more problems coming for the mid-to-high end (like Option ARM recasts and few move-up buyers).

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 02:02:00 PM

Click on graph for large image.

This graph shows the Freddie Mac single family delinquency rate since January 2005.

Here is the Freddie Mac portfolio data.


From Reuters: Freddie Mac May portfolio shrank annualized 9.9 pct (ht Ron)

Freddie Mac ... said its mortgage investment portfolio shrank by an annualized 9.9 percent rate in May, while delinquencies on loans it guarantees accelerated.

The portfolio decreased to $823.4 billion, for an annualized 5.6 percent increase year to date, the McLean, Virginia-based company said in its monthly volume summary.

In May 2008, the portfolio was $770.4 billion.

Delinquencies ... jumped to 2.62 percent of its book of business in May from 2.44 percent in April and 0.86 percent in May 2008.
...
Freddie Mac said refinance-loan purchase volume was $40.3 billion in May, down from April's $43.3 billion. March's $52 billion was its largest refinance month since 2003.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 11:43:00 AM

The FDIC has been very busy issuing Cease and Desist orders this year. Through May, the FDIC has issued 104 Cease and Desist orders and this does not include any orders by the OCC or OTS. (ht Terry)

Most of these oreders are very similar - here is an excerpt:

IT IS HEREBY ORDERED, that the Bank, its institution-affiliated parties, as that term is defined in section 3(u) of the Act, 12 U.S.C. § 1813(u), and its successors and assigns, cease and desist from the following unsafe and unsound banking practices, as more fully set forth in the FDIC's Report of Visitation ...:

a) operating with management whose policies and practices are detrimental to the Bank and jeopardize the safety of its deposits;
(b) operating with a board of directors which has failed to provide adequate supervision over and direction to the active management of the Bank;
(c) operating with a large volume of poor quality loans;
(d) engaging in unsatisfactory lending and collection practices;
(e) operating in such a manner as to produce operating losses; and
(f) operating with inadequate provisions for liquidity.
emphasis added

All of these institutions are ordered to make changes - and some do, and then the cease and desist order is terminated (15 orders have been teriminated). The remaining are BFF candidates.

Here are the FDIC press releases this year:
May Cease and Desist Orders (23)

April Cease and Desist Orders (24)

March Cease and Desist Orders (23)

February Cease and Desist Orders (21)

January Cease and Desist Orders (13)

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 10:22:00 AM

From the WaPo: N.Y. Fed to Trim AIG Debt, Receive $25 Billion Stake in Two Subsidiaries

American International Group announced yesterday that it has reached a deal to reduce its debt to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York by $25 billion.

[AIG] said that it would give the New York Fed preferred stakes in ... Asian-based American International Assurance, or AIA, and American Life Insurance Co., or Alico, which operates in more than 50 countries.

Under the agreement, AIG will split off AIA and Alico into separate company-owned entities called "special purpose vehicles," or SPVs. The New York Fed will receive preferred shares now valued at $25 billion -- $16 billion in AIA and $9 billion in Alico -- and in exchange will forgive an equal amount of AIG debt.

The Fed is now in the insurance business ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2009

Personal income increased $167.1 billion, or 1.4 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $178.1 billion, or 1.6 percent, in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $25.1 billion, or 0.3 percent. In April, personal income increased $78.3 billion, or 0.7 percent, DPI increased $140.0 billion, or 1.3 percent, and PCE increased $1.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates. The pattern of changes in personal income and in DPI reflect, in part, the pattern of increased government social benefit payments associated with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in May, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in April.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $768.8 billion in May, compared with $608.5 billion in April. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 6.9 percent in May, compared with 5.6 percent in April.

The May numbers were impacted by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. As an example, payments to seniors increased sharply and “Personal Current Transfers,” increased by $165 billion (annual rate). This boosted personal income.

This also pushed up the saving rate sharply to the highest rate since Dec 1993 (but this is a temporary boost).

A couple points:

Incomes and saving rate increased sharply boosted by the stimulus plan.

Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was the highest in over 15 years.

Click on graph for large image.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month centered average for smoothing) through the April Personal Income report. The saving rate was 6.9% in April. (6.3% with average)

The saving rate was boosted by the stimulus package, but this suggests households are saving substantially more than during the last few years (when the saving rate was close to zero). The saving rate will probably dip - the stimulus boost is unsustainable - but then continue to rise (an aging population usually pushes the saving rate higher) and a rising saving rate will repair household balance sheets, but this will also keep pressure on personal consumption.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May (2000 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

PCE declined sharply in Q3 and Q4 2008, and rebounded slightly in Q1 2009.

Although PCE increased in May (compared to April), Q2 2009 is off to a somewhat weak start, with PCE in both April and May slightly below the levels of Q1. Although it is possible that PCE will pick up in June, it seems likely that PCE will be flat to slightly negative in Q2 (although not the cliff diving of the 2nd half of 2008). The two-month estimate suggests a real PCE decline of 0.7% in Q2 2009.

Usually PCE and Residential Investment (RI) lead the economy out of recession, and right now both remain weak. As households increase their savings rate to repair their balance sheets, it seems unlikely that PCE will increase significantly any time soon.

by Calculated Risk on 6/26/2009 12:45:00 AM

From Versusplus - a little credit card music!

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2009 11:51:00 PM

From the WSJ: Rates Low, Firms Race to Refinance Their Debts

[C]ompanies are seeking to sidestep what is likely to be the biggest-ever wave of loan refinancing among risky companies as $440 billion in debt comes due in a span of three years [from 2012 to 2014]. That is about 85% of the $518 billion in current leveraged loans outstanding ...

Some firms [are negotiating extensions]. Others are issuing junk bonds or stock, using the cash raised to repay some of their loans well ahead of schedule.

The pre-emptive moves demonstrate rising concern about the massive bubble of lending that developed from 2005 to 2007.

The looming credit problems are not just Option ARMs and CRE loans; there are about $75 billion in leveraged coming due in 2012, another $150 billion in 2013 and close to $215 billion in 2014.

The credit bubble: the gift that keeps on giving.