by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2009 09:43:00 AM

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before Congress on the economic outlook.

Prepared testimony below the video links ...

Here is the CNBC feed.

And a live feed from C-SPAN.

Prepared Testimony: The economic outlook. A few excerpts:

Recent Economic Developments

The U.S. economy has contracted sharply since last autumn, with real gross domestic product (GDP) having dropped at an annual rate of more than 6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year. Among the enormous costs of the downturn is the loss of some 5 million payroll jobs over the past 15 months. The most recent information on the labor market--the number of new and continuing claims for unemployment insurance through late April--suggests that we are likely to see further sizable job losses and increased unemployment in coming months.

However, the recent data also suggest that the pace of contraction may be slowing, and they include some tentative signs that final demand, especially demand by households, may be stabilizing. Consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of last year, grew in the first quarter. In coming months, households' spending power will be boosted by the fiscal stimulus program, and we have seen some improvement in consumer sentiment. Nonetheless, a number of factors are likely to continue to weigh on consumer spending, among them the weak labor market and the declines in equity and housing wealth that households have experienced over the past two years. In addition, credit conditions for consumers remain tight.

The housing market, which has been in decline for three years, has also shown some signs of bottoming. Sales of existing homes have been fairly stable since late last year, and sales of new homes have firmed a bit recently, though both remain at depressed levels. Although some of the boost to sales in the market for existing homes is likely coming from foreclosure-related transactions, the increased affordability of homes appears to be contributing more broadly to the steadying in the demand for housing. In particular, the average interest rate on conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages has dropped almost 1-3/4 percentage points since August, to about 4.8 percent. With sales of new homes up a bit and starts of single-family homes little changed from January through March, builders are seeing the backlog of unsold new homes decline--a precondition for any recovery in homebuilding.

In contrast to the somewhat better news in the household sector, the available indicators of business investment remain extremely weak. Spending for equipment and software fell at an annual rate of about 30 percent in both the fourth and first quarters, and the level of new orders remains below the level of shipments, suggesting further near-term softness in business equipment spending. Recent business surveys have been a bit more positive, but surveyed firms are still reporting net declines in new orders and restrained capital spending plans. Our recent survey of bank loan officers reported further weakening of demand for commercial and industrial loans.1 The survey also showed that the net fraction of banks that tightened their business lending policies stayed elevated, although it has come down in the past two surveys.

Conditions in the commercial real estate sector are poor. Vacancy rates for existing office, industrial, and retail properties have been rising, prices of these properties have been falling, and, consequently, the number of new projects in the pipeline has been shrinking.
...
The Economic Outlook
We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year. Key elements of this forecast are our assessments that the housing market is beginning to stabilize and that the sharp inventory liquidation that has been in progress will slow over the next few quarters. Final demand should also be supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus. An important caveat is that our forecast assumes continuing gradual repair of the financial system; a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall. I will provide a brief update on financial markets in a moment.

Even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, implying that the current slack in resource utilization will increase further. We expect that the recovery will only gradually gain momentum and that economic slack will diminish slowly. In particular, businesses are likely to be cautious about hiring, implying that the unemployment rate could remain high for a time, even after economic growth resumes.

In this environment, we anticipate that inflation will remain low.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2009 09:26:00 AM

From Bloomberg: GMAC Reports $675 Million Loss as Loan Defaults Rise

GMAC LLC, the auto and home lender that received a $6 billion government bailout, reported a first- quarter loss of $675 million on surging loan defaults ...

New vehicle loans plunged 74 percent from a year earlier to $3.4 billion, an increase compared with the fourth quarter’s $2.7 billion, GMAC said. Auto loans more than 30 days past due rose to 3.1 percent in the first quarter from 2.4 percent in the same period a year earlier ...

GMAC is one of the 19 stress test banks.

by Calculated Risk on 5/05/2009 02:02:00 AM

For those interested in the legal issues surrounding the Chrysler bankruptcy, here is another post from attorney Steven Jakubowski.

Chrysler Bankruptcy Analysis - Part III: Will The "Absolute Priority Rule" Kill The Sale?

... Chrysler's (and soon GM's) court battles afford us a rare opportunity to witness one of bankruptcy law's most fundamental questions being litigated in the highest stakes battles of all time, that being:

When does the "absolute priority rule" (see FRB-Cleveland's strict construction of the rule back in 1996 here and compare it to the US Government's position today), which establishes a hierarchy of recovery rights among creditor classes, take a back seat to the "fresh start," rehabilitative policy of chapter 11?

Chrysler's opening memorandum touched upon this question by focusing on the US Supreme Court'd classic pronouncement in NLRB v. Bildisco & Bildisco, 465 U.S. 513, 528 (1984), where the Court stated that the "fundamental purpose of reorganization is to prevent the debtor from going into liquidation, with an attendant loss of jobs and possible misuse of economic resources." This principle, Chrysler argues, is paramount and (quoting NY's judicial patriarch, Bankruptcy Judge Lifland, in the old Eastern Airline case) "all other bankruptcy policies are subordinated" to it. (Mem. at 4).

Many, however, will surely disagree with Judge Lifland's statement from 20 years ago that all bankruptcy policies should be subordinated to the reorganization objectives of the Bankruptcy Code.

Fascinating stuff. And the clock is ticking ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 11:19:00 PM

I've featured a few of Merle Hazard's videos like Merle Hazard Meets Arthur Laffer and Mark to Market.

Here Merle chats with Stanford economist John Taylor:

And that inspires Merle: Inflation or Deflation

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 09:20:00 PM

From the WSJ: More Banks Will Need Capital

The U.S. is expected to direct about 10 of the 19 banks undergoing government stress tests to boost their capital ...

One big risk worrying industry officials is that the market will view banks on the list as insolvent when the official results are announced Thursday, even though Fed officials have repeatedly said that's not the case.
...
An initial stress test identified Wells Fargo as among the banks needing a bigger buffer ... It is unclear whether Wells would be forced to raise fresh capital or if regulators would accept the bank's argument that it can earn its way through the losses in future years. Wells expects more clarity Tuesday.

Wells Fargo will probably suffer enormous losses from Wachovia's Option ARM portfolio (originally from Golden West) and from their own HELOC portfolio. The estimated losses will apparently be broken out into the 12 categories listed in the Fed's White Paper, and that should show substantial losses for Wells Fargo in these categories.

Citi, BofA, Wells ... the constant leaks are pretty amazing ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 06:11:00 PM

By popular demand ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

The S&P 500 is up 34% from the bottom, and still off 42% from the peak.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

The second graph shows the S&P 500 since 1990.

The dashed line is the closing price today.

This puts the recent rally into perspective.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 04:23:00 PM

This isn't breaking news - just a couple of photos from reader Anthony of the ManhattanWest project in Las Vegas (photos taken yesterday).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Photo Credit: Anthony.

Construction was halted on ManhattanWest in December.

From the Las Vegas Review-Journal in March: ManhattanWest latest casualty of crisis

ManhattanWest, a $350 million development that would include 700 condo units, restaurants, offices and shops on a 20-acre site near Las Vegas Beltway ... Gemstone topped off the nine-story Element House at ManhattanWest in August. The mid-rise residential buildings are about 80 percent finished.

ManhattenWest isn't the only halted project in Las Vegas:

Last year, Mira Villa condos and Vantage Lofts stopped construction and went into bankruptcy. Sullivan Square had barely begun excavation before the project was canceled. Spanish View Towers was the first high-rise project to stop construction after partially building an underground parking garage.

The second photo shows the only activity at the site; a security guard relaxing in the sun.

There are halted condo projects in many cities - and this is inventory that will some day come on the market. Note: as a reminder, high rise condo inventory is not included in the new home sales report - so this is additional inventory that is sometimes overlooked.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 02:07:00 PM

From the Fed: The April 2009 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey
on Bank Lending Practices

In the April survey, the net percentages of respondents that reported having tightened their business lending policies over the previous three months, although continuing to be very elevated, edged down for the second consecutive survey. In contrast, somewhat larger net percentages of domestic banks than in the January survey reported having tightened credit standards on residential mortgages. The net percentage of domestic respondents that reported having tightened their lending policies on credit card loans remained about unchanged from the January survey, whereas the net percentage that reported having tightened their policies on other consumer loans fell. Respondents indicated that demand for loans from both businesses and households continued to weaken for nearly all types of loans over the survey period, an exception being demand for prime mortgages, a category of loans that registered an increase in demand for the first time since the survey began to track prime mortgages separately in April 2007.

In response to the special questions on the outlook for loan quality, a significant majority of banks reported that credit quality for all types of loans is likely to deteriorate over the year if the economy progresses according to consensus forecasts.

Charts here for CRE, residential mortgage, consumer loans and C&I.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 12:55:00 PM

From CNBC: Wells Fargo Is Asked to Raise More Capital After Stress Test

Regulators have told Wells Fargo to shore up its finances after government "stress tests" showed the bank would have trouble surviving a deeper recession.

The leaks continue ... Citi, BofA, and Wells need to raise capital ... more to come.

by Calculated Risk on 5/04/2009 11:51:00 AM

Dr. Thomas Hoenig, President of Federal Reserve of Kansas City speaks today in New York at Demos: A Better Way To Restore The Banking System

Yesterday Hoenig wrote in the Financial Times: Troubled banks must be allowed a way to fail. Excerpts below the video.

Here is a live webcast of Hoenig's speech (starts at 12:30PM ET):

Excerpts from Hoenig's opinion piece:

... I believe there is an alternative method for addressing this crisis that deals more effectively with the issues we currently face while also considering the long-run consequences of those actions: the implementation of a systematic plan to resolve large, problem financial institutions.

... Boiled down to its simplest elements, the plan would require those firms seeking government assistance to make the taxpayer senior to all shareholders, with the government determining the circumstances for managers and directors. ...

Non-viable institutions would be allowed to fail and be placed into a negotiated conservatorship or a bridge institution, with the bad assets liquidated while the remainder of the firm is operated under new management and re-privatised as soon as is feasible. This plan is similar to what was done in Sweden in the 1990s and in the US with the failure of Continental Illinois in the 1980s.

This plan has many advantages, including that management and shareholders bear the costs for their actions before taxpayer funds are committed. This process also is equitable across all firms; is similar to what is currently done with smaller banks; and provides a definitive process that should reduce market uncertainty. These are important reasons to implement this kind of resolution process.
....
Certainly, the approach I suggest for resolving these large firms also is not without substantial cost, but it looks to both the short and long run.

A systematic approach would reduce the uncertainty that has paralysed financial markets; the cost is more measurable and therefre manageable; and there will be fewer adverse consequences compared to the path we are on now.

Because we still have far to go in this crisis, there remains time to define a clear process for resolving large institutional failure. Without one, the consequences will involve a series of short-term events and far more uncertainty for the global economy in the long run.

While I agree that central banks must sometimes take actions affecting the short run, they must keep the long run in focus or risk failing their mission.