by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 10:33:00 PM

From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Weakening Economic Conditions Create Challenging Conditions For Apartment Sector, According to National Multi Housing Council Survey (hat tip Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register)

“Nine straight months of job losses have begun to cut into the demand for apartment residences,” said Mark Obrinsky, NMHC’s Vice President of Research and Chief Economist. “While favorable demographics and a lower homeownership rate will benefit the apartment industry over time, owners and managers will first have to work their way through the current economic downturn before the benefits of that increased demand are likely to show up. Until then, economic worry will cause some people to “double up” by moving in with a friend or returning to their parents’ house.”

The Market Tightness Index, which measures changes in occupancy rates and/or rents, dropped from 40 last quarter to 24. This was the fifth straight quarter in which the index has been below 50. (For all of the survey indexes, a reading above 50 indicates that, on balance, conditions are improving; a reading below 50 indicates that conditions are worsening; and a reading of 50 indicates that conditions are unchanged.)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.

As NMHC chief economist Obrinsky noted, it is common in a recession for apartment vacancies to rise, as households double up by moving in with a friend or family member. However an added factor in this recession is all the single family homes being offered as rentals. This is additional competition for apartments and might also be impacting demand for apartments.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 08:51:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Pelosi Calls for `Emergency' Aid to U.S. Automakers

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she wants ``immediate action'' to give automakers additional aid ... The failure of ``one or more of the major American automobile manufacturers'' would have a ``devastating impact on our economy,'' Pelosi said in a statement ...

She didn't specify the level of assistance she supports, but said it should come from the $700 billion Congress authorized the Treasury to use to help stabilize the financial services industry ... The three companies are seeking an additional $50 billion in federal loans

Everyone wants a piece of the TARP.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 05:01:00 PM

"In early October, we reported our third quarter earnings results and also provided observations about business for the rest of 2008 and into 2009. At that time, we expected business in late 2008 and 2009 to decline, but in just the last few weeks our business outlook has further weakened."
Bill Marriott, CEO Marriott Hotels (emphasis added)

From the USAToday: Most hotels likely to see occupancy rates fall next year

In its 2009 forecast — completed in September, but revised after the stock market collapsed in October — PKF Consulting of Atlanta expects hotels to fill an average of just 58.3% of rooms, or a 4.4% drop in the occupancy expected this year. If true, that would be the worst occupancy rate at U.S. hotels since 1988, when Smith Travel Research started tracking the data.

The current lowest occupancy rate, according to Smith Travel, was 59% in 2002 — the first full year after 9/11, the start of the Iraq war and the SARS epidemic. Separately, Smith Travel's revised forecast is for occupancy to drop 3.5% in 2009, to 59.1%.

"Toward the end of September, it was as if somebody, somewhere, hit the pause button," says Mark Woodworth, president of PKF Consulting.

Restricting travel is a common response to a sudden slowdown in business. And along with falling demand, new investment in lodging is up over 200% from just two years ago! Falling demand and rising supply; a bad combination for the lodging and hotel construction businesses.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 02:35:00 PM

Here is the press release from the FHFA. Note that this does not include principal reduction as a solution to create an affordable payment, and is limited to: "extending the term, reducing the interest rate, and forbearing interest".

This is intended to help "thousands" (a drop in the bucket unless it is several hundred thousand), and seems to encourage homeowners to stop making payments until they are 90 days late.

Here are some excerpts:

Q: What is a streamlined modification?

A: A streamlined modification is a modification that requires less documentation and less processing. In this case, the streamlined modification seeks to create a monthly mortgage payment that is sustainable for troubled borrowers by targeting a benchmark ratio of housing payment to monthly gross household income.

Q: What is the benchmark ratio?

A: This is the first time the industry has agreed on an industry standard. The benchmark ratio for calculating the affordable payment is 38 percent of monthly gross household income. Once the affordable payment is determined, there are several steps the servicer can take to create that payment – extending the term, reducing the interest rate, and forbearing interest. In the event that the affordable payment is still beyond the borrower’s means, the borrower’s situation will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis using a cash flow budget.

Q: Why is it necessary?

A: With the rise in serious delinquencies and increasing number of loans in foreclosure, this program will help borrowers who have missed three or more payments, but want to keep their homes. Because the eligibility requirements and process are streamlined and consistent, the program will allow servicers to reach more borrowers more quickly.

Q: Who is eligible?

A: The highest risk borrower, who has missed three payments or more, owns and occupies the property as a primary residence, and has not filed bankruptcy. The loan is a Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae or portfolio loan with participating investors. To qualify for the streamlined modification, the borrower must certify that he or she experienced a hardship or change in financial circumstances, and did not purposely default to obtain a modification.

Q: Why must the borrower be 90 days delinquent? Why not earlier in the delinquency cycle?

A: This is a streamlined solution targeted to reach the most at risk borrower. For borrowers who do not qualify, other solutions are available. This in no way substitutes for the meaningful efforts by all servicers and investors that are currently in place. The 212,000 workouts reported by HOPE NOIW in September are testimony to that fact. We will continue to see those efforts produce meaningful results.

Q: How many people will this help?

A: While difficult to assess, it is clear delinquencies are predicted to continue well into 2009. Foreclosure estimates are significant. Having a streamlined approach will assist many borrowers who default and more quickly. We estimate this will ultimately help thousands of borrowers.

Q: How do borrowers apply?

A: To be considered for the program, a seriously delinquent borrower should contact his or her servicer and provide the requested information – monthly gross household income, association dues and fees, and a hardship statement.

Q: How do borrowers complete the modification process?

A: Upon receiving the Modification Agreement from the servicer, the borrower signs it and returns it with the 1st payment at the modified terms along with income verification. Once the borrower makes three payments at the modified terms and the account is current as of day 90 of the modified plan, the modification is complete.

Q: When will servicers start offering this program?

A: We expect that by December 15th, servicers will be positioned to work with eligible borrowers.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 02:02:00 PM

Now on CNBC ...

Here is the CNBC feed.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 12:19:00 PM

From the WSJ: Fannie, Freddie Work on Mass Loan Modification Plan

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and U.S. officials are expected to announce plans Tuesday to speed up the modification of hundreds of thousands of loans ... The streamlined effort will target certain loans that are 90 days or more past due ... The program will aim to bring the ratio of mortgage payments for these homeowners to 38% of their income by modifying interest rates and in some cases forgiving portions of principal debt ...

The announcement is expected to come at a press conference at 2 p.m. at the Federal Housing Finance Agency ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 11:36:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Libor for Dollars Falls as Central Banks Provide Cash Funding

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars slid 6 basis points to 2.18 percent today, the 22nd consecutive decline and the lowest level since Oct. 29, 2004, according to British Bankers' Association data.

The three-month LIBOR was at 2.24% yesterday and the rate peaked at 4.81875% on October 10th.

The U.S. bond market is closed today for Veterans Day so many of the other indicators are not available.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 10:01:00 AM

"Unfortunately, the preliminary signs of stability we had discussed in early September, during our 2008 third quarter earnings call, were upended by the past month's financial crisis. Results of this crisis -- accelerating fears of job losses, a large decline in consumer spending, a significant capital crunch, increased credit market disruption, and plummeting stock market values -- all contributed to drive our cancellations up to 233 units (about 30% of current-quarter-contracts, or 9% of beginning-quarter-backlog), and drive home buyer confidence and our traffic and demand down to record lows."
Robert Toll, CEO Toll Brothers, Nov 11, 2008

From MarketWatch: Home builder says buyer traffic, demand plummet after financial crisis

Unfortunately, the preliminary signs of stability we had discussed in early September, during our 2008 third quarter earnings call, were upended by the past month's financial crisis," said Chief Executive Robert Toll in a prepared statement.

The crisis contributed to pushing up cancellations and drove homebuyer confidence and the company's traffic and demand to record lows, the CEO said, pointing to "accelerating fears of job losses, a large decline in consumer spending, a significant capital crunch, increased credit market disruption, and plummeting stock market values."
...
"Given the significant uncertainty surrounding sales paces, cancellation rates, market direction, unemployment trends and numerous other aspects of the overall economy, we are not comfortable offering delivery, revenue or earnings guidance for the coming year," said Chief Financial Officer Joel Rassman.

Not surprising. Also the cancellation rate rose to 30%, far above Toll's historical average of 7%, but still below the record highs of recent years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 09:51:00 AM

From Reuters: Option ARM specialist Downey Financial may fail

Downey Financial Corp ... one of the largest specialists in "option" adjustable-rate mortgages, said on Monday its survival was in doubt because it may fail to raise enough capital to satisfy its regulators.

In its quarterly report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Downey said there was "substantial doubt" about its ability and that of its banking unit "to continue as going concerns for a reasonable period of time."

Something to watch this friday!

by Calculated Risk on 11/11/2008 01:07:00 AM

From the WSJ: Mall Owner Is Warning of Default

Ailing mall owner General Growth Properties Inc. warned Monday in a government filing that its failure to refinance or extend $1 billion in debt due this month could trigger default on billions of dollars in debt and its ability to continue operations would be in "substantial doubt."
...
General Growth has $900 million in debt coming due Nov. 28 on two luxury malls on the Las Vegas strip. It has another $58 million in bonds due on Dec. 1.

From the GGP 10-Q on the economy:

Deteriorating economic conditions will have an adverse affect on our revenues and available cash, and may also impair our ability to sell our properties.

General and retail economic conditions continue to weaken, and we expect this weakness to continue and worsen in 2009 as the economy enters a recessionary or near recessionary period. Consumer spending recently declined for the first time in 17 years, the unemployment rate is expected to rise, consumer confidence has decreased dramatically and the stock market remains extremely volatile. Given these expected economic conditions, we believe there is a significantly increased risk that the sales of stores operating in our centers will decrease, negatively affecting their ability to make minimum rent payments and increasing the risk of tenant bankruptcies. In addition to the direct adverse effect of tenant failures to pay minimum rents and tenant bankruptcies on our operations, these events also negatively affect our ability to attract and maintain minimum rent levels for new tenants. These circumstances negatively affect our revenues and available cash, and also reduce the value of our properties, reducing the likelihood that we would be able to sell such properties, on attractive terms or at all.