by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 01:29:00 PM

Here is the press release from NY AG Cuomo. A couple of excerpts:

“Our expanding investigation into the mortgage industry has uncovered that Washington Mutual improperly pressured appraisers to provide inflated values that best served the lender’s interest. Knowing this, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cannot afford to continue buying Washington Mutual mortgages unless they are sure these loans are based on reliable and independent appraisals.”
Attorney General Cuomo, Nov, 7, 2007

And from the Appraisal Institute:

“I wish I could say I am shocked by the discoveries made by the Attorney General and his staff. Sadly, what allegedly happened between First American and Washington Mutual is not an isolated incident. Rather, it is symbolic of a problem that has plagued the appraisal industry for years. As the allegations against First American show, the mortgage industry’s dirty secret has been that banks exert tremendous pressure to extort appraisers.”
Terry Dunkin, President of the Appraisal Institute Nov 7, 2007.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 01:10:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Banks Face $100 Billion of Writedowns on Level 3 Rule, RBS Says

U.S. banks and brokers face as much as $100 billion of writedowns because of Level 3 accounting rules, in addition to the losses caused by the subprime credit slump, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.

And on total credit losses:

``This credit crisis, when all is out, will see $250 billion to $500 billion of losses,'' London-based Janjuah said. ``The heat is on and it is inevitable that more players will have to revalue at least a decent portion'' of assets they currently value using ``mark-to-make believe.''

Back in July, when Bernanke suggested the losses would be in the $50 Billion to $100 Billion range, I joked that he had dropped a zero.

"Some estimates are in the order of between $50 billion and $100 billion of losses associated with subprime credit problems," [Bernanke] said (July 19, 2007).

I thought I was exaggerating for effect - although $50 to $100 Billion seemed too low, I didn't really think the losses would reach $500 Billion to $1 Trillion. Based on this new estimate from RBS, maybe I wasn't far off.

Note: these losses don't include the coming $2+ Trillion in household net worth losses due to house prices falling over the next couple of years.

by Anonymous on 11/07/2007 01:08:00 PM

Because the color of someone's tie says a lot about appraisal quality. Also, I didn't make this up, and you can click the link to verify that:

"Not a golf or tennis player? Then go on a date!" said the ABS East brochure at its asset-backed securities conference in Orlando, Florida, which runs Sunday through Wednesday.

While not your traditional singles speed-dating event, the conference sponsor hoped to create some key matchups between issuers and investors seeking to form some true, long-lasting business partnerships.

"It just takes some of the guesswork out of trying to connect and makes a very large event more intimate for those people who may be new to the market or don't already have established connections," said Jade Friedensohn, IMN senior vice president and event producer.

Investors were offered the chance to meet one-on-one with issuers of mortgage asset-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations and non-mortgage ABS on Tuesday. Six investors and issuers spent 10 minutes in pairs of two hoping to make a connection before moving on to their next potential match.

"Ten minutes should be enough to determine if one investor's risk profile is in line with that issuer's platform. When you're first meeting, the goal is to even understand if there's compatibility there," said Friedensohn. "If there is, at that point, you've had face time, you've exchanged business cards and the follow-up can be done on-site or down the line."

(Thanks, scav (I think))

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 12:25:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Cuomo Subpoenas Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, on Washington Mutual

New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo subpoenaed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ... seeking information on loans they bought from banks including Washington Mutual Inc.

Cuomo said he uncovered a ``pattern of collusion'' in appraisals on Washington Mutual loans. ...
...
The subpoenas also seek information on the due diligence practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and their valuations of appraisals.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 11:30:00 AM

From Reuters: Washington Mutual sees loan losses; shares tumble (hat tip barely)

Washington Mutual Inc ... said on Wednesday the U.S. housing slump will persist through 2008, causing loan losses to mount and mortgage lending to fall to an eight-year low.
...
It expects credit losses to remain "elevated" through 2008. ...

"The soft landing we were anticipating quickly transitioned to a severe downturn," Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said in a presentation to investors in New York. "This process is painful."

What expected soft landing? And further in the article:

[The CEO says] WaMu has "contained" its own lending risks.

Ahhh, more containment!

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 11:09:00 AM

From BuilderOnline: Lennar Suspends Sales at Two Major Projects

... Lennar has decided to temporarily stop taking orders at one of its largest and highest-profile projects in southern California - Central Park West in Irvine. The Miami-based builder has also postponed construction of two high-rise projects in Anaheim, known as A-Town Metro and A-Town Stadium.

Central Park West ... sprawling over four city blocks, was supposed to start moving in its first buyers last month. But company officials concluded that too much of the village was still under construction for early buyers to be able to fully appreciate its amenities and living environment. ... The builder has refunded earnest money to buyers who had already purchased homes there. For the time being, Lennar is keeping open Central Park West's sale office, which is across the street from the massive construction site.
emphasis added

This is a massive project in Orange County just off Jamboree southwest of the 405 (for those that know the area). Returning earnest money is a bad sign, and I wouldn't be surprised if the project is halted soon.

by Anonymous on 11/07/2007 08:21:00 AM

An Associated Press reporter has apparently been living in a cave for a few months:

NEW YORK - The malaise in the mortgage market is starting to spread to credit card and auto loans in what one analyst has dubbed consumer credit "contagion." It's an ominous warning signal for the economy.

"One analyst"? "Contagion" in quotes? I checked the byline; this seems to have been published this morning.

No one is calling this problem the next debt-related land mine yet, but it is important to watch what happens, especially as the holiday shopping season gets under way.

OK. Let me rectify this inexplicable failure of cliche:

This problem is the next debt-related land mine. You read it here first, kids.

We also savor the perfume of the new trend, odiferous metaphoricity:

"Firms that are now adding to the portfolio might have had a few whiffs of trouble brewing earlier this year and dragged their feet in adding to reserves because they were hoping that interest rate cuts might bail them out and give borrowers breathing room," said Jack Ciesielski, who writes the industry newsletter, The Analyst's Accounting Observer.

"Now, the odor is getting stronger, and it looks like adding reserves is the only course of action they can follow without presenting misleading financials," Ciesielski said.

by Anonymous on 11/07/2007 07:37:00 AM

Percent of refis involving cash-out rises, but amount of cash taken out falls:

McLean, VA – In the third quarter of 2007, 87 percent of Freddie Mac-owned loans that were refinanced resulted in new mortgages with loan amounts that were at least five percent higher than the original mortgage balances, according to Freddie Mac's quarterly refinance review. The revised share for the second quarter of 2007 was 84 percent. . . .

In the third quarter of 2007, the median ratio of new-to-old interest rate was 1.11. In other words, one-half of those borrowers who paid off their original loan and took out a new one increased their mortgage coupon rate by 11 percent, or roughly five-eighths of a percentage point at today's level of 30-year fixed mortgage rates.

"This quarter we saw $60.1 billion cashed out, down from a revised $81.4 billion cashed out in the second quarter of 2007," said Amy Crews Cutts, Freddie Mac deputy chief economist. "Based on what we've been seeing in the share of mortgage applications for refinance, we are expecting the share of mortgage refinance originations to remain about the same in the fourth quarter as we saw in the third, at about 45 percent. . . .

The Cash-Out Refinance Report also revealed that properties refinanced during the third quarter of 2007 experienced a median house-price appreciation of 26 percent during the time since the original loan was made, up from a revised 24 percent in the second quarter 2007. For loans refinanced in the third quarter of 2007, the median age of the original loan was 3.9 years, 5 months older than the median age of loans refinanced during the second quarter of 2007.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2007 01:28:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image

This is a graph of the December U.S. Dollar Index from Barchart.com.

This reminds me of Dr. Krugman's "Will there be a Dollar Crisis?" from July. Krugman wrote:

"... there will at some point have to be a ‘Wile E. Coyote moment’ – a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply."

On topic, check out this funny post at Krugman's blog: Modeling the falling dollar

And from Bloomberg: Dollar Slumps to Record on China's Plans to Diversify Reserves

The dollar slumped to a record low against the euro after a Chinese official said the government will favor stronger currencies as it diversifies $1.43 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves.

... ``We will favor stronger currencies over weaker ones, and will readjust accordingly,'' Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of China's National People's Congress, told a conference in Beijing.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2007 09:36:00 PM

From Bloomberg: MBIA, Ambac Losses Will Be `Massive,' Egan Jones Says

Bond insurers ... face ``massive losses'' over the next few quarters that could test their ability to raise new capital, Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said.

MBIA may lose $20.2 billion on guarantees and securities holdings, Sean Egan, managing director of Egan-Jones, said on a conference call today. ACA Capital may take losses of at least $10 billion; New York-based Ambac may reach $4.3 billion; mortgage insurers MGIC Investment Corp. and Radian Group Inc. may see losses of $7.25 billion and $7.2 billion, respectively, Egan said.

``There is little doubt that the credit and bond insurers face massive losses over the next few quarters and many will be capital challenged,'' Egan said.

Egan-Jones (not included in article) also expressed concern about possible major writedowns coming at Lehman and Bear Stearns. They commented that ResCap probably isn't sustainable without a capital injection. And for the homebuilders:

"Watch for some failures over the next couple of quarters."

UPDATE: From the WSJ: Morgan Stanley May Take Hit From Subprime

Two analysts are projecting the firm may take a fourth-quarter write-down of $3 billion to $6 billion. The estimates by analysts David Trone of Fox-Pitt, Kelton and Mike Mayo of Deutsche Bank AG ...
...
Another research firm, CreditSights, yesterday estimated potential fourth-quarter CDO hits at $9.4 billion for Merrill, $5.1 billion for Goldman, $3.9 billion for Lehman, $3.8 billion for Morgan Stanley and $3.2 billion for Bear Stearns.